European Economic and Monetary Union: Transitional Issues and Third-Stage Dilemmas. European Policy Papers #4

This paper considers two kinds of issues facing EMU. One concerns qualifications and membership: how qualifications are evaluated and which member states are likely to meet the criteria set for membership in the third stage of EMU in 1999. The other concerns the capacity of member states, individually and collectively, to deal with economic policy after the advent of the third stage. In particular, will they be able to address the long-term problems of low growth and high unemployment that afflict so much of Europe? In regard to the first issue, the paper suggests, for supporters of EMU, some reason for optimism. It is very likely that the third stage of EMU will begin on the first day of 1999 and also that the "euro-zone" that comes into being on that day will, in all likelihood, include a large number of member states - almost certainly as many as 8 and probably as many as 10 or 11. On the second issue - the capacity of EMU to address the long-term problems of low growth and high unemployment - the paper suggests some reason for concern and pessimism. Most of the member states participating in the third stage of EMU are likely to continue experiencing low growth and high unemployment. Neither monetary policy nor exchange rate policy is likely to be applied so as to generate any significant increase in the long-term rate of economic growth or any decrease in the high levels of unemployment that now exist in most of the likely "euro-zone" members. Moreover, the Treaty creates no institutional capacity for collective action in economic policy that might enable the member states participating in EMU to redress those problems, and there seems to be little desire in the EU as a whole to create that institutional capacity

Inflows towards active regions and the modulation of the solar cycle: a parameter study

Aims: We aim to investigate how converging flows towards active regions affect the surface transport of magnetic flux, as well as their impact on the generation of the Sun's poloidal field. The inflows constitute a potential non-linear mechanism for the saturation of the global dynamo and may contribute to the modulation of the solar cycle in the Babcock-Leighton framework. Methods: We build a surface flux transport code incorporating a parametrized model of the inflows and run simulations spanning several cycles. We carry out a parameter study to assess how the strength and extension of the inflows affect the build-up of the global dipole field. We also perform simulations with different levels of activity to investigate the potential role of the inflows in the saturation of the global dynamo. Results: We find that the interaction of neighbouring active regions can lead to the occasional formation of single-polarity magnetic flux clumps inconsistent with observations. We propose the darkening caused by pores in areas of high magnetic field strength as a plausible mechanism preventing this flux-clumping. We find that inflows decrease the amplitude of the axial dipole moment by a $\sim30\,\%$, relative to a no-inflows scenario. Stronger (weaker) inflows lead to larger (smaller) reductions of the axial dipole moment. The relative amplitude of the generated axial dipole is about $9\%$ larger after very weak cycles than after very strong cycles. This supports the inflows as a non-linear mechanism capable of saturating the global dynamo and contributing to the modulation of the solar cycle within the Babcock-Leighton framework

Comparative Behavior of \u3ci\u3ePyrellia Cyanicolor\u3c/i\u3e (Diptera: Muscidae) on the Moss \u3ci\u3eSplachnum Ampullaceum\u3c/i\u3e and on Substrates of Nutritional Value

(excerpt) Entomophily is commonly associated with flowering plants and their pollen vectors, but also occurs in other groups of plants. Among fungi, several genera of Phallaceae offer food rewards to calliphorid and muscid flies, which inadvertently disperse the fungal spores (Ingold 1964). Bryhn (1897) first noted a relationship between various species ofDiptera and members of the moss family Splachnaceae. The nature of this interaction has been the subject of much speculation (Bequaert 1921, Erlanson 1935, Crum et aI. 1972, Koponen and Koponen 1977), but no experimental evidence has been collected

Surface flux transport simulations: Effect of inflows toward active regions and random velocities on the evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field

Aims: We aim to determine the effect of converging flows on the evolution of a bipolar magnetic region (BMR), and to investigate the role of these inflows in the generation of poloidal flux. We also discuss whether the flux dispersal due to turbulent flows can be described as a diffusion process. Methods: We developed a simple surface flux transport model based on point-like magnetic concentrations. We tracked the tilt angle, the magnetic flux and the axial dipole moment of a BMR in simulations with and without inflows and compared the results. To test the diffusion approximation, simulations of random walk dispersal of magnetic features were compared against the predictions of the diffusion treatment. Results: We confirm the validity of the diffusion approximation to describe flux dispersal on large scales. We find that the inflows enhance flux cancellation, but at the same time affect the latitudinal separation of the polarities of the bipolar region. In most cases the latitudinal separation is limited by the inflows, resulting in a reduction of the axial dipole moment of the BMR. However, when the initial tilt angle of the BMR is small, the inflows produce an increase in latitudinal separation that leads to an increase in the axial dipole moment in spite of the enhanced flux destruction. This can give rise to a tilt of the BMR even when the BMR was originally aligned parallel to the equator

Bimodules over Cartan MASAs in von Neumann Algebras, Norming Algebras, and Mercer's Theorem

In a 1991 paper, R. Mercer asserted that a Cartan bimodule isomorphism between Cartan bimodule algebras A_1 and A_2 extends uniquely to a normal *-isomorphism of the von Neumann algebras generated by A_1 and A_2 [13, Corollary 4.3]. Mercer's argument relied upon the Spectral Theorem for Bimodules of Muhly, Saito and Solel [15, Theorem 2.5]. Unfortunately, the arguments in the literature supporting [15, Theorem 2.5] contain gaps, and hence Mercer's proof is incomplete. In this paper, we use the outline in [16, Remark 2.17] to give a proof of Mercer's Theorem under the additional hypothesis that the given Cartan bimodule isomorphism is weak-* continuous. Unlike the arguments contained in [13, 15], we avoid the use of the Feldman-Moore machinery from [8]; as a consequence, our proof does not require the von Neumann algebras generated by the algebras A_i to have separable preduals. This point of view also yields some insights on the von Neumann subalgebras of a Cartan pair (M,D), for instance, a strengthening of a result of Aoi [1]. We also examine the relationship between various topologies on a von Neumann algebra M with a Cartan MASA D. This provides the necessary tools to parametrize the family of Bures-closed bimodules over a Cartan MASA in terms of projections in a certain abelian von Neumann algebra; this result may be viewed as a weaker form of the Spectral Theorem for Bimodules, and is a key ingredient in the proof of our version of Mercer's theorem. Our results lead to a notion of spectral synthesis for weak-* closed bimodules appropriate to our context, and we show that any von Neumann subalgebra of M which contains D is synthetic. We observe that a result of Sinclair and Smith shows that any Cartan MASA in a von Neumann algebra is norming in the sense of Pop, Sinclair and Smith.Comment: 21 pages, paper is a completely reworked and expanded version of an earlier preprint with a similar titl

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea : factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Comprehensive analysis of parameter and driver sensitivity is key to establishing the credibility of models of complex systems. This is especially so for models of natural systems where experimental manipulation of the real-world to provide controlled validation data is not possible. Models of marine ecosystems fall into this category, but despite the interest in these models for evaluating the effects of climate change and fishing on nutrient fluxes and the abundances of flora and fauna, none have yet been subjected to global sensitivity analysis. Here we present results of both local ‘one-at-a-time’ (OAT), and variance based global sensitivity analyses (GSA) of the fish and fishery aspects of StrathE2E, an end-to-end (nutrients to birds and mammals) ecosystem model of the North Sea. The sensitivity of the model was examined with respect to internal biological parameters, and external drivers related to climate and human activity. The OAT Morris method was first used to screen for factors most influential on model outputs. The Sobol GSA method was then used to calculate quantitative sensitivity indices. The results indicated that the fish and shellfish components of the model (demersal and pelagic fish, filter/deposit and scavenge/carnivore feeding benthos) were influenced by different sets of factors. Harvesting rates were directly influential on demersal and pelagic fish biomasses. Suspension/deposit feeding benthos were directly sensitive to changes in temperature, while the temperature acted indirectly on pelagic fish through the connectivity between model components of the food web. Biomass conversion efficiency was the most important factor for scavenge/carnivorous feeding benthos. The results indicate the primacy of fishing as the most important process affecting total fish biomass, together with varying responses to environmental factors which may be relevant in the context of climate change. The non-linear responses and parameter interactions identified by the analysis also highlight the necessity to use global rather than local methods for the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem models