An Analysis of the Selection of Arbitrators

This paper analyses data on union and employer rankings of different panels of arbitrators in an actual arbitration system. A random utility model of bargainer preferences is developed and estimated. The estimates indicate that unions and employers have similar preferences, in favor of lawyers, more experienced arbitrators, and arbitrators who seem to have previously favored their side. Alternative rankings models, which are estimated to test whether bargainers rank arbitrators strategically, reveal no evidence of strategic behavior.

Negotiator Behavior Under Arbitration

The emerging empirical literature on the economics of arbitration has focused primarily on the behavior of arbitrators under alternative forms of arbitration. This article suggests that it is natural for empirical economists to now expand their focus to include issues related to the behavior of negotiators. In this connection, three key aspects of negotiator behavior are discussed: (1) the decision to settle a dispute voluntarily or to proceed to arbitration; (2) the strategy for selecting an arbitrator; and (3) the final bargaining position to advance before an arbitrator.

Automated reduction of submillimetre single-dish heterodyne data from the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope using ORAC-DR

With the advent of modern multi-detector heterodyne instruments that can result in observations generating thousands of spectra per minute it is no longer feasible to reduce these data as individual spectra. We describe the automated data reduction procedure used to generate baselined data cubes from heterodyne data obtained at the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The system can automatically detect baseline regions in spectra and automatically determine regridding parameters, all without input from a user. Additionally it can detect and remove spectra suffering from transient interference effects or anomalous baselines. The pipeline is written as a set of recipes using the ORAC-DR pipeline environment with the algorithmic code using Starlink software packages and infrastructure. The algorithms presented here can be applied to other heterodyne array instruments and have been applied to data from historical JCMT heterodyne instrumentation.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Predicting human decisions with behavioral theories and machine learning

Behavioral decision theories aim to explain human behavior. Can they help predict it? An open tournament for prediction of human choices in fundamental economic decision tasks is presented. The results suggest that integration of certain behavioral theories as features in machine learning systems provides the best predictions. Surprisingly, the most useful theories for prediction build on basic properties of human and animal learning and are very different from mainstream decision theories that focus on deviations from rational choice. Moreover, we find that theoretical features should be based not only on qualitative behavioral insights (e.g. loss aversion), but also on quantitative behavioral foresights generated by functional descriptive models (e.g. Prospect Theory). Our analysis prescribes a recipe for derivation of explainable, useful predictions of human decisions

Increasing access to CBT for psychosis patients: a feasibility, randomised controlled trial evaluating brief, targeted CBT for distressing voices delivered by assistant psychologists (GiVE2)

Background: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommends that Cognitive Behaviour Therapy for psychosis (CBTp) is offered to all patients with a psychosis diagnosis. However, only a minority of psychosis patients in England and Wales are offered CBTp. This is attributable, in part, to the resource-intensive nature of CBTp. One response to this problem has been the development of CBTp in brief formats that are targeted at a single symptom and the mechanisms that maintain distress. We have developed a brief form of CBTp for distressing voices and reported preliminary evidence for its effectiveness when delivered by highly trained therapists (clinical psychologists). This study will investigate the delivery of this intervention by a cost-effective workforce of assistant psychologists following a brief training and evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of conducting a future, definitive, randomised controlled trial (RCT). Methods: This is a feasibility study for a pragmatic, three-arm, parallel-group, superiority 1:1:1 RCT comparing a Guided self-help CBT intervention for voices and treatment as usual (GiVE) to Supportive Counselling and treatment as usual (SC) to treatment as usual alone (TAU), recruiting across two sites, with blinded post-treatment and follow-up assessments. A process evaluation will quantitatively and qualitatively explore stakeholder experience. Discussion: Expected outcomes will include an assessment of the feasibility of conducting a definitive RCT, and data to inform the calculation of its sample size. If evidence from a subsequent, fully powered RCT suggests that GiVE is clinically and cost-effective when delivered by briefly trained assistant psychologists, CBTp offered in these less resource-intensive forms has the potential to generate benefits for individual patients (reduced distress, enhanced recovery and enhanced quality of life), service-level patient benefit (increased access to evidence-based psychological therapies) and economic benefits to the NHS (in terms of the reduced use of mental health inpatient services). Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN registration number: 16166070. Registered on 5 February 2019

Circulating Tumour Necrosis Factor is highly correlated with brainstem serotonin transporter availability in humans

Preclinical studies demonstrate that pro-inflammatory cytokines increase serotonin transporter availability and function, leading to depressive symptoms in rodent models. Herein we investigate associations between circulating inflammatory markers and brainstem serotonin transporter (5-HTT) availability in humans. We hypothesised that higher circulating inflammatory cytokine concentrations, particularly of tumour necrosis factor (TNF-α), would be associated with greater 5-HTT availability, and that TNF-α inhibition with etanercept (sTNFR:Fc) would in turn reduce 5-HTT availability. In 13 neurologically healthy adult women, plasma TNF-α correlated significantly with 5-HTT availability (rho=0.6; p=0.03) determined by [123I] -beta-CIT SPECT scanning. This association was replicated in an independent sample of 12 patients with psoriasis/psoriatic arthritis (rho=0.76; p=0.003). Indirect effects analysis, showed that there was a significant overlap in the variance explained by 5-HTT availability and TNF-α concentrations on BDI scores. Treatment with etanercept for 6-8 weeks was associated with a significant reduction in 5-HTT availability (Z= 2.09; p=0.03; r=0.6) consistent with a functional link. Our findings confirm an association between TNF-α and 5-HTT in both the basal physiological and pathological condition. Modulation of both TNF-α and 5-HTT by etanercept indicate the presence of a mechanistic pathway whereby circulating inflammatory cytokines are related to central nervous system substrates underlying major depression

Immunological consequences of antihelminthic treatment in preschool children exposed to urogenital schistosome infection

Urogenital schistosomiasis, due to Schistosoma haematobium, is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Control is by targeted treatment with praziquantel but preschool age children are excluded from control programs. Immunological studies on the effect of treatment at this young age are scarce. In light of studies in older individuals showing that praziquantel alters antischistosome immune responses and responses to bystander antigens, this study aims to investigate how these responses would be affected by treatment at this young age. Antibody responses directed against schistosome antigens, Plasmodium falciparum crude and recombinant antigens, and the allergen house dust mite were measured in children aged 3 to 5 years before and 6 weeks after treatment. The change in serological recognition of schistosome proteins was also investigated. Treatment augmented antischistosome IgM and IgE responses. The increase in IgE responses directed against adult worm antigens was accompanied by enhanced antigen recognition by sera from the children. Antibody responses directed against Plasmodium antigens were not significantly affected by praziquantel treatment nor were levels of allergen specific responses. Overall, praziquantel treatment enhanced, quantitatively and qualitatively, the antiworm responses associated with protective immunity but did not alter Plasmodium-specific responses or allergen-specific responses which mediate pathology in allergic disease

Failure of hippocampal deactivation during loss events in treatment-resistant depression

Major depressive disorder is characterized by anhedonia, cognitive biases, ruminations, hopelessness and increased anxiety. Blunted responses to rewards have been reported in a number of recent neuroimaging and behavioural studies of major depressive disorder. In contrast, neural responses to aversive events remain an under-studied area. While selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors are often effective in treating major depressive disorder, their mechanism of action remains unclear. Following a series of animal model investigations of depressive illness and serotonergic function, Deakin and Graeff predicted that brain activity in patients with major depressive disorder is associated with an overactive dorsal raphe nucleus with overactive projections to the amygdala, periaqueductal grey and striatum, and an underactive median raphe nucleus with underactive projections to the hippocampus. Here we describe an instrumental loss-avoidance and win-gain reinforcement learning functional magnetic resonance imaging study with 40 patients with highly treatment-resistant major depressive disorder and never-depressed controls. The dorsal raphe nucleus/ periaqueductal grey region of the midbrain and hippocampus were found to be overactive in major depressive disorder during unsuccessful loss-avoidance although the median raphe nucleus was not found to be underactive. Hippocampal overactivity was due to a failure to deactivate during loss events in comparison to controls, and hippocampal over-activity correlated with depression severity, self-report 'hopelessness' and anxiety. Deakin and Graeff argued that the median raphe nucleus normally acts to inhibit consolidation of aversive memories via the hippocampus and this system is underactive in major depressive disorder, facilitating the development of ruminations, while the dorsal raphe nucleus system is engaged by distal cues predictive of threats and is overactive in major depressive disorder. During win events the striatum was underactive in major depressive disorder. We tested individual patient consistency of these findings using within-study replication. Abnormal hippocampal activity correctly predicted individual patient diagnostic status in 97% (sensitivity 95%, specificity 100%) of subjects, and abnormal striatal activity predicted diagnostic status in 84% (sensitivity 79%, specificity 89%) of subjects. We conclude that the neuroimaging findings were largely consistent with Deaken and Graeff's predictions, abnormally increased hippocampal activity during loss events was an especially consistent abnormality, and brainstem serotonergic nuclei merit further study in depressive illness.</p

Perceptual Context in Cognitive Hierarchies

Cognition does not only depend on bottom-up sensor feature abstraction, but also relies on contextual information being passed top-down. Context is higher level information that helps to predict belief states at lower levels. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a formalisation of perceptual context and its integration into a new process model for cognitive hierarchies. Several simple instantiations of a cognitive hierarchy are used to illustrate the role of context. Notably, we demonstrate the use context in a novel approach to visually track the pose of rigid objects with just a 2D camera