Socioeconomic status, blood pressure progression, and incident hypertension in a prospective cohort of female health professionals

Aims The aim of this study was to examine the association between socioeconomic status, blood pressure (BP) progression, and incident hypertension. Methods and results We included 27 207 female health professionals free of hypertension and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Participants were classified into five education and six income categories. The main outcome variables were BP progression at 48 months of follow-up and incident hypertension during the entire study period. At 48 months, 48.1% of women had BP progression. The multivariable adjusted relative risks [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] for BP progression were 1.0 (referent), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.90 (0.85-0.94), and 0.84 (0.78-0.91) (P for trend <0.0001) across increasing education categories and 1.0 (referent), 1.01 (0.94-1.08), 0.99 (0.93-1.06), 0.97 (0.91-1.04), 0.96 (0.90-1.03), and 0.89 (0.83-0.96) across increasing income categories (P for trend = 0.0001). During a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 8248 cases of incident hypertension occurred. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.0 (referent), 0.92 (0.86-0.99), 0.85 (0.79-0.92), 0.87 (0.80-0.94), and 0.74 (0.65-0.84) (P for trend <0.0001) across increasing education categories and 1.0 (referent), 1.07 (0.95-1.21), 1.07 (0.95-1.20), 1.06 (0.94-1.18), 1.04 (0.93-1.16), and 0.93 (0.82-1.06) (P for trend 0.08) across increasing income categories. In joint analyses, education but not income remained associated with BP progression and incident hypertension. Conclusion Socioeconomic status, as determined by education but not by income, is a strong independent predictor of BP progression and incident hypertension in wome

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684–0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709–0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301–0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033–0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1–5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044–0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion: Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categories

'Emerge' : benchmarking of clinical performance and patients experiences with emergency care in Switzerland

Erworben im Rahmen der Schweizer Nationallizenzen (http://www.nationallizenzen.ch)Objective: To assess the effects of uniform indicator measurement and group benchmarking followed by hospital-specific activities on clinical performance measures and patients’ experiences with emergency care in Switzerland. Design: Data were collected in a pre-post design in two measurement cycles, before and after implementation of improvement activities. Trained hospital staff recorded patient characteristics and clinical performance data. Patients completed a questionnaire after discharge/transfer from the emergency unit. Setting: Emergency departments of 12 community hospitals in Switzerland, participating in the ‘Emerge’ project. Subjects: Eligible patients were entered into the study (18 544 in total: 9174 and 9370 in the first and second cycles, respectively), and 2916 and 3370 patients returned the questionnaire in the first and second measurement cycles, respectively (response rates 32% and 36%, respectively). Main outcome measures: Clinical performance measures (concordance of prospective and retrospective assessment of urgency of care needs, and time intervals between sequences of events) and patients’ reports about care provision in emergency departments (EDs), measured by a 22-item, self-administered questionnaire. Results: Concordance of prospective and retrospective assignments to one of three urgency categories improved significantly by 1%, and both under- and over-prioritization, were reduced. The median duration between ED admission and documentation of post-ED disposition fell from 137 minutes in 2001 to 130 minutes in 2002 (P < 0.001). Significant improvements in the reports provided by patients were achieved in 10 items, and were mainly demonstrated in structures of care provision and perceived humanity. Conclusion: Undertaken in a real-world setting, small but significant improvements in performance measures and patients’ perceptions of emergency care could be achieved. Hospitals accomplished these improvements mainly by averting strong outliers, and were most successful in preventing series of negative events. Uniform outcomes measurement, group benchmarking, and data-driven hospital-specific strategies for change are suggested as valuable tools for continuous improvement. Several hospitals have already implemented the developed measures in their internal quality systems and subsequent measurements are projected

Novel genetic markers improve measures of atrial fibrillation risk prediction

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with adverse outcome. Whether recently discovered genetic risk markers improve AF risk prediction is unknown. Methods and results We derived and validated a novel AF risk prediction model from 32 possible predictors in the Women's Health Study (WHS), a cohort of 20 822 women without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed prospectively for incident AF (median: 14.5 years). We then created a genetic risk score (GRS) comprised of 12 risk alleles in nine loci and assessed model performance in the validation cohort with and without the GRS. The newly derived WHS AF risk algorithm included terms for age, weight, height, systolic blood pressure, alcohol use, and smoking (current and past). In the validation cohort, this model was well calibrated with good discrimination [C-index (95% CI) = 0.718 (0.684-0.753)] and improved all reclassification indices when compared with age alone. The addition of the genetic score to the WHS AF risk algorithm model improved the C-index [0.741 (0.709-0.774); P = 0.001], the category-less net reclassification [0.490 (0.301-0.670); P < 0.0001], and the integrated discrimination improvement [0.00526 (0.0033-0.0076); P < 0.0001]. However, there was no improvement in net reclassification into 10-year risk categories of <1, 1-5, and 5+% [0.041 (−0.044-0.12); P = 0.33]. Conclusion Among women without CVD, a simple risk prediction model utilizing readily available risk markers identified women at higher risk for AF. The addition of genetic information resulted in modest improvements in predictive accuracy that did not translate into improved reclassification into discrete AF risk categorie

Relationship Between High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I and Blood Pressure Among Young and Healthy Adults

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship of cardiac troponin (cTn) levels with conventional and ambulatory blood pressure (BP) in young and healthy adults. METHODS We performed a population based cross-sectional analysis among 2,072 young and healthy adults aged 25-41 years free of cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. cTnI was measured using a highly sensitive (hs) assay. The relationships of high sensitivity cardiac tropononin I (hs-cTnI) with office and 24-hour BP were assessed using multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS Median age was 37 years and 975 (47%) participants were male. hs-cTnI levels were detectable in 2,061 (99.5%) individuals. Median (interquartile range) hs-cTnI levels were 0.98 (0.71; 1.64) ng/L among men and 0.48 (0.33; 0.71) ng/L among women. Systolic BP, but not diastolic BP, gradually increased across hs-cTnI quartiles (118, 120, 121, and 122 mm Hg for conventional BP; P = 0.0002; 122, 123, 124, and 124 mm Hg for 24-hour BP, P = 0.0001). In multivariable linear regression analyses, the β estimates for systolic BP per 1-unit increase in log transformed hs-cTnI were 2.52 for conventional BP (P = 0.0001); 2.75 for 24-hour BP (P < 0.0001); 2.71 and 2.41 (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0002) for day and nighttime BP, respectively. There was a significant relationship between hs-cTnI and the Sokolow-Lyon Index (odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 2.09 (1.37; 3.18), P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Using a hs assay, hs-cTnI was detectable in virtually all participants of a young and healthy population. hs-cTnI was independently associated with systolic BP and left ventricular hypertroph

Early Life Risk Factors for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study

Background-Early life risk factors are associated with cardiometabolic disease, but have not been fully studied in atrial fibrillation (AF). There are discordant results from existing studies of birth weight and AF, and the impact of maternal body size, gestational age, placental size, and birth length is unknown. Methods and Results-The Helsinki Birth Cohort Study includes 13 345 people born as singletons in Helsinki in the years 1934-1944. Follow-up was through national registries, and ended on December 31, 2013, with 907 incident cases. Cox regression analyses stratified on year of birth were constructed for perinatal variables and incident AF, adjusting for offspring sex, gestational age, and socioeconomic status at birth. There was a significant U-shaped association between birth weight and AF (P for quadratic term = 0.01). The lowest risk of AF was found among those with a birth weight of 3.4 kg (3.8 kg for women [85th percentile] and 3.0 kg for men [17th percentile]). High maternal body mass index (>= 30 kg/m(2)) predicted offspring AF; hazard ratio 1.36 (95% CI 1.07-1.74, P = 0.01) compared with normal body mass index ( Conclusions-High maternal body mass index during pregnancy and maternal height are previously undescribed predictors of offspring AF. Efforts to prevent maternal obesity might reduce later AF in offspring. Birth weight has a U-shaped relation to incident AF independent of other perinatal variables.Peer reviewe

Predisposing Factors Associated With Development of Persistent Compared With Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

Background: Once atrial fibrillation (AF) progresses to sustained forms, adverse outcomes increase and treatment success rates decrease. Therefore, identification of risk factors predisposing to persistence of AF may have a significant impact on AF morbidity. Methods and Results: We prospectively examined the differential associations between traditional, lifestyle, and biomarker AF risk factors and development of paroxysmal versus nonparoxysmal AF (persistent/permanent) among 34 720 women enrolled in the Women's Health Study who were free of cardiovascular disease and AF at baseline. AF patterns were defined based on current guidelines and classified according to the most sustained form of AF within 2 years of diagnosis. During a median follow‐up of 16.4 years, 690 women developed paroxysmal AF and 349 women developed nonparoxysmal AF. In multivariable time‐varying competing risk models, increasing age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.11, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.13, versus HR 1.08, 1.07 to 1.09, per year), body mass index (HR 1.07, 1.05 to 1.09, versus HR 1.03, 1.02 to 1.05, per kg/m2), and weight (HR 1.30, 1.22 to 1.39, versus HR 1.14, 1.08 to 1.20, per 10 kg) were more strongly associated with the development of nonparoxysmal AF compared with paroxysmal AF. Hemoglobin A1c levels at baseline were directly related to the development of nonparoxysmal AF but inversely associated with paroxysmal AF in multivariable competing risk models (P for nonequal association=0.01). Conclusions: In women without AF or CVD at baseline, increasing age, adiposity, and higher hemoglobin A1c levels were preferentially associated with the early development of nonparoxysmal AF. These data raise the hypothesis that efforts aimed at weight reduction or glycemic control may affect the proportion of the population with sustained AF

A multimarker approach to assess the influence of inflammation on the incidence of atrial fibrillation in women

Aims To assess the joint influence of inflammatory biomarkers on the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in women. Methods and results We performed a prospective cohort study among women participating in the Women's Health Study. All women were free of AF at study entry and provided a baseline blood sample assayed for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and fibrinogen. To evaluate the joint effect of these three biomarkers, an inflammation score was created that ranged from 0 to 3 and reflected the number of biomarkers in the highest tertile per individual. During a median follow-up of 14.4 years, 747 of 24 734 women (3.0%) experienced a first AF event. Assessed individually, all three biomarkers were associated with incident AF, even after adjustment for traditional risk factors. When combined into an inflammation score, a strong and independent relationship between inflammation and incident AF emerged. Across increasing inflammation score categories, there were 1.66, 2.22, 2.73, and 3.25 AF events per 1000 person-years of follow-up. The corresponding hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) across inflammation score categories were 1.0, 1.22 (1.00-1.49), 1.32 (1.06-1.65), and 1.59 (1.22-2.06) (P for linear trend 0.0006) after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion In this large-scale prospective study among women without a history of cardiovascular disease, markers of systemic inflammation were significantly related to AF even after controlling for traditional risk factor