Investment, Employment and Political Conflict in Northern Ireland

This paper combines panel data on employment and investment in different types of capital good in Northern Ireland with timeseries data on the level of political conflict (measured in various ways) in order to estimate the extent to which conflict discourages employment and investment of different kinds. While all factors of production are affected by political conflict, the magnitude of the effect varies substantially from one to another.Investment; Employment; Northern Ireland

Why is Africa so poor? A structural model of economic development and income inequality.

The paper extends existing work on inequality and economic development by estimating a cross-country structural model that identifies bi-directional relationships between income inequality and other indicators of social and economic development. Overall, lower inequality is associated with improvements in other development indicators, but this is the result of several complex interactions. The most striking feature of the structural model is the insight it provides into the reasons behind the negative “Africa dummy” in previous cross-country growth studies.income distribution, social and economic development

A Structural Model of Social and Economic Development

In this paper we estimate a model of the determinants of economic and social development that takes seriously three of the criticisms of panel data models in the existing growth literature: that long run coefficients are biased because the lagged dependent variable is not strictly exogenous; that they are biased because of slope coefficient heterogeneity; and that they are biased because of explanatory variable endogeneity. The model indicates that there are strong causal relationships in both directions between on the one hand, economic development, and on the other, social and political development.

Can Political Instability Generate Business Cycles? Evidence from the Intifada

This paper presents an econometric model that combines macroeconomic time series data with historical series relating to political instability in Israel during the Intifada period, in order to provide a conservative estimate of the extent to which variations in economic performance over time have a political explanation. Political instability is found to have a substantial effect on the cyclical component of aggregate output.Israel; macroeconomics; political instability; VAR

Aid and Dutch Disease in the South Pacific

The impact of aid inflows on relative prices and output is ambiguous. Aid inflows that increase domestic expenditure are likely to cause real exchange rate appreciation, ceteris paribus. However, if this expenditure raises the capital stock in the traded goods sector, then output in this sector might not contract, at least in the steady state. Moreover, if investment in the nontraded goods sector is relatively high and/or productive, then there is not necessarily any real exchange rate appreciation in the steady state. We use time-series data to examine the impact of aid inflows on output and real exchange rates in ten South Pacific island states, and find aid inflows to produce a variety of outcomes in economies of different kinds.aid, Dutch disease, South Pacific

How Does Civil War Affect the Magnitude of Capital Flight? Evidence from Israel during the Intifada

We use time-series data from Israel to investigate the dynamics of the causal links between the intensity of civil conflict and capital flight. The fraction of Israeli capital wealth held outside the country exhibits considerable variation over time. So also do indicators of the intensity of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Using quarterly time-series data, the paper shows that there is a high correlation between the two, conditional on economic conditions. This correlation is a consequence of a causal link that runs in both directions more violence leads to more capital flight, but more capital flight is also a predictor of higher future levels of violence.

Is the Franc Zone an Optimal Currency Area?

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated across countries, and the degree of similarity in the long run effects of the shocks on the macro-economy. The policy conclusions depend on the relative importance of different macroeconomic variables to policymakers, and the speed with which a policymaker is able to respond to a shock.Franc Zone, Optimal Currency Areas, Structural VAR Models

The Volatility of Aid

aid volatility, aid heterogeneity, project aid, programme assistance, MDGs

Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle

This paper takes a close look at the 'behavioural finance' explanations of the equity premium puzzle, namely myopic loss aversion (Benartzi and Thaler, 1995) and disappointment aversion (Ang, Bekaert and Liu, 2000). The paper proposes a simple specification of loss and disappointment aversion and brings these theories to the data. The main conclusion of the paper is that a highly short-sighted investment horizon is required for the historical equity premium to be explained by loss aversion, while reasonable values for disappointment aversion are found also for long investment horizons. So, stocks may lose only in the short term, but may disappoint also in the long term. JEL Classification: G11, G12disappointment aversion, equity premium puzzle, investment horizon, Myopic loss aversion, reference dependence

Information, Institutions and Banking Sector Development in West Africa

Using a new panel dataset for banks in eight West African countries, we explore the factors that exacerbate or alleviate excess liquidity, and the factors that promote or retard the rate of growth of banks’ assets. Loan default rates in the region are high, and variations in the rate impact on liquidity and asset growth. However, the size of this effect is very sensitive to bank age. Some types of improvement in the quality of governance reduce excess liquidity and promote asset growth. However, the impact of other types of improvement, particularly with regard to corruption, is ambiguous. We uncover evidence that provides an explanation for this ambiguity.Africa; Banking; Default; Institutions; Liquidity