Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population.

Published onlineLETTERDemographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease-induced mortality. Using long-term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life-history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density-dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density-dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease-induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.NERCUK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affair

The Meaning of Memory Safety

We give a rigorous characterization of what it means for a programming language to be memory safe, capturing the intuition that memory safety supports local reasoning about state. We formalize this principle in two ways. First, we show how a small memory-safe language validates a noninterference property: a program can neither affect nor be affected by unreachable parts of the state. Second, we extend separation logic, a proof system for heap-manipulating programs, with a memory-safe variant of its frame rule. The new rule is stronger because it applies even when parts of the program are buggy or malicious, but also weaker because it demands a stricter form of separation between parts of the program state. We also consider a number of pragmatically motivated variations on memory safety and the reasoning principles they support. As an application of our characterization, we evaluate the security of a previously proposed dynamic monitor for memory safety of heap-allocated data.Comment: POST'18 final versio

Improving response rates using a monetary incentive for patient completion of questionnaires: an observational study

Background: Poor response rates to postal questionnaires can introduce bias and reduce the statistical power of a study. To improve response rates in our trial in primary care we tested the effect of introducing an unconditional direct payment of 5 pound for the completion of postal questionnaires. Methods: We recruited patients in general practice with knee problems from sites across the United Kingdom. An evidence-based strategy was used to follow-up patients at twelve months with postal questionnaires. This included an unconditional direct payment of 5 pound to patients for the completion and return of questionnaires. The first 105 patients did not receive the 5 pound incentive, but the subsequent 442 patients did. We used logistic regression to analyse the effect of introducing a monetary incentive to increase the response to postal questionnaires. Results: The response rate following reminders for the historical controls was 78.1% ( 82 of 105) compared with 88.0% ( 389 of 442) for those patients who received the 5 pound payment (diff = 9.9%, 95% CI 2.3% to 19.1%). Direct payments significantly increased the odds of response ( adjusted odds ratio = 2.2, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.0, P = 0.009) with only 12 of 442 patients declining the payment. The incentive did not save costs to the trial - the extra cost per additional respondent was almost 50 pound. Conclusion: The direct payment of 5 pound significantly increased the completion of postal questionnaires at negligible increase in cost for an adequately powered study

An evaluation of enteral nutrition practices and nutritional provision in children during the entire length of stay in critical care

<b>Background</b> Provision of optimal nutrition in children in critical care is often challenging. This study evaluated exclusive enteral nutrition (EN) provision practices and explored predictors of energy intake and delay of EN advancement in critically ill children.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> Data on intake and EN practices were collected on a daily basis and compared against predefined targets and dietary reference values in a paediatric intensive care unit. Factors associated with intake and advancement of EN were explored.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Data were collected from 130 patients and 887 nutritional support days (NSDs). Delay to initiate EN was longer in patients from both the General Surgical and congenital heart defect (CHD) Surgical groups [Median (IQR); CHD Surgical group: 20.3 (16.4) vs General Surgical group: 11.4 (53.5) vs Medical group: 6.5 (10.9) hours; p <= 0.001]. Daily fasting time per patient was significantly longer in patients from the General Surgical and CHD Surgical groups than those from the Medical group [% of 24 h, Median (IQR); CHD Surgical group: 24.0 (29.2) vs General Surgical group: 41.7 (66.7) vs Medical group: 9.4 (21.9); p <= 0.001]. A lower proportion of fluids was delivered as EN per patient (45% vs 73%) or per NSD (56% vs 73%) in those from the CHD Surgical group compared with those with medical conditions. Protein and energy requirements were achieved in 38% and 33% of the NSDs. In a substantial proportion of NSDs, minimum micronutrient recommendations were not met particularly in those patients from the CHD Surgical group. A higher delivery of fluid requirements (p < 0.05) and a greater proportion of these delivered as EN (p < 0.001) were associated with median energy intake during stay and delay of EN advancement. Fasting (31%), fluid restriction (39%) for clinical reasons, procedures requiring feed cessation and establishing EN (22%) were the most common reasons why target energy requirements were not met.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Provision of optimal EN support remains challenging and varies during hospitalisation and among patients. Delivery of EN should be prioritized over other "non-nutritional" fluids whenever this is possible.<p></p&gt

<i>Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense</i> transmitted by a single tsetse fly bite in vervet monkeys as a model of human African trypanosomiasis

Sleeping sickness is caused by a species of trypanosome blood parasite that is transmitted by tsetse flies. To understand better how infection with this parasite leads to disease, we provide here the most detailed description yet of the course of infection and disease onset in vervet monkeys. One infected tsetse fly was allowed to feed on each host individual, and in all cases infections were successful. The characteristics of infection and disease were similar in all hosts, but the rate of progression varied considerably. Parasites were first detected in the blood 4-10 days after infection, showing that migration of parasites from the site of fly bite was very rapid. Anaemia was a key feature of disease, with a reduction in the numbers and average size of red blood cells and associated decline in numbers of platelets and white blood cells. One to six weeks after infection, parasites were observed in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), indicating that they had moved from the blood into the brain; this was associated with a white cell infiltration. This study shows that fly-transmitted infection in vervets accurately mimics human disease and provides a robust model to understand better how sleeping sickness develops

An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

BACKGROUND PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. METHODS Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. RESULTS In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. CONCLUSIONS The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer

Detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with BOSS DR11 and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope

We present a new measurement of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect using data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Using 600 square degrees of overlapping sky area, we evaluate the mean pairwise baryon momentum associated with the positions of 50,000 bright galaxies in the BOSS DR11 Large Scale Structure catalog. A non-zero signal arises from the large-scale motions of halos containing the sample galaxies. The data fits an analytical signal model well, with the optical depth to microwave photon scattering as a free parameter determining the overall signal amplitude. We estimate the covariance matrix of the mean pairwise momentum as a function of galaxy separation, using microwave sky simulations, jackknife evaluation, and bootstrap estimates. The most conservative simulation-based errors give signal-to-noise estimates between 3.6 and 4.1 for varying galaxy luminosity cuts. We discuss how the other error determinations can lead to higher signal-to-noise values, and consider the impact of several possible systematic errors. Estimates of the optical depth from the average thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal at the sample galaxy positions are broadly consistent with those obtained from the mean pairwise momentum signal.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Involvement of Noradrenergic Neurotransmission in the Stress- but not Cocaine-Induced Reinstatement of Extinguished Cocaine-Induced Conditioned Place Preference in Mice: Role for β-2 Adrenergic Receptors

The responsiveness of central noradrenergic systems to stressors and cocaine poses norepinephrine as a potential common mechanism through which drug re-exposure and stressful stimuli promote relapse. This study investigated the role of noradrenergic systems in the reinstatement of extinguished cocaine-induced conditioned place preference by cocaine and stress in male C57BL/6 mice. Cocaine- (15 mg/kg, i.p.) induced conditioned place preference was extinguished by repeated exposure to the apparatus in the absence of drug and reestablished by a cocaine challenge (15 mg/kg), exposure to a stressor (6-min forced swim (FS); 20–25°C water), or administration of the α-2 adrenergic receptor (AR) antagonists yohimbine (2 mg/kg, i.p.) or BRL44408 (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). To investigate the role of ARs, mice were administered the nonselective β-AR antagonist, propranolol (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.), the α-1 AR antagonist, prazosin (1, 2 mg/kg, i.p.), or the α-2 AR agonist, clonidine (0.03, 0.3 mg/kg, i.p.) before reinstatement testing. Clonidine, prazosin, and propranolol failed to block cocaine-induced reinstatement. The low (0.03 mg/kg) but not high (0.3 mg/kg) clonidine dose fully blocked FS-induced reinstatement but not reinstatement by yohimbine. Propranolol, but not prazosin, blocked reinstatement by both yohimbine and FS, suggesting the involvement of β-ARs. The β-2 AR antagonist ICI-118551 (1 mg/kg, i.p.), but not the β-1 AR antagonist betaxolol (10 mg/kg, i.p.), also blocked FS-induced reinstatement. These findings suggest that stress-induced reinstatement requires noradrenergic signaling through β-2 ARs and that cocaine-induced reinstatement does not require AR activation, even though stimulation of central noradrenergic neurotransmission is sufficient to reinstate

Induction of humoral immune response to multiple recombinant Rhipicephalus appendiculatus antigens and their effect on tick feeding success and pathogen transmission

BACKGROUND: Rhipicephalus appendiculatus is the primary vector of Theileria parva, the etiological agent of East Coast fever (ECF), a devastating disease of cattle in sub-Saharan Africa. We hypothesized that a vaccine targeting tick proteins that are involved in attachment and feeding might affect feeding success and possibly reduce tick-borne transmission of T. parva. Here we report the evaluation of a multivalent vaccine cocktail of tick antigens for their ability to reduce R. appendiculatus feeding success and possibly reduce tick-transmission of T. parva in a natural host-tick-parasite challenge model. METHODS: Cattle were inoculated with a multivalent antigen cocktail containing recombinant tick protective antigen subolesin as well as two additional R. appendiculatus saliva antigens: the cement protein TRP64, and three different histamine binding proteins. The cocktail also contained the T. parva sporozoite antigen p67C. The effect of vaccination on the feeding success of nymphal and adult R. appendiculatus ticks was evaluated together with the effect on transmission of T. parva using a tick challenge model. RESULTS: To our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of the anti-tick effects of these antigens in the natural host-tick-parasite combination. In spite of evidence of strong immune responses to all of the antigens in the cocktail, vaccination with this combination of tick and parasite antigens did not appear to effect tick feeding success or reduce transmission of T. parva. CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the importance of early evaluation of anti-tick vaccine candidates in biologically relevant challenge systems using the natural tick-host-parasite combination