The ENSO Impact on Predicting World Cocoa Prices

Cocoa beans are produced in equatorial and sub-equatorial regions of West Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. These are also the regions most affected by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- a climatic anomaly affecting temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world. Thus, ENSO, has a potential of affecting cocoa production and, subsequently, prices on the world market. This study investigates the benefits of using a measure of ENSO variable in world cocoa price forecasting through the application of a smooth transition autoregression (STAR) modeling framework to monthly data to examine potentially nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and cocoa prices. The results indicate that the nonlinear models appear to outperform linear models in terms of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate evidence of Granger causality between ENSO and cocoa prices.Cocoa Prices, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Out-of-Sample Forecasting, Smooth Transition Autoregression, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C32, Q11, Q54,

High temperature constitutive and crack initiation modeling of coated single crystal superalloys

The purpose of this program is to develop life prediction models for anisotropic materials used in gas turbine airfoils. In the base portion of the program, two coated single crystal alloys are being tested. They are PWA 286 overlay coated and PWA 273 aluminide coated PWA 1480 and PWA 286 overlay coated Alloy 185. Viscoplastic constitutive models for these materials are also being developed to predict the cyclic stress-strain histories required for life prediction of the lab specimens and actual airfoil designs

An array of 100 Al-Al2O3-CuSIN tunnel junctions in direct-write trilayer technology

We present superconductor-insulator-normal metal (SIN) tunnel junction thermometers made of arrays of 4-100Al-Al2O3-Cu SIN tunnel junctions fabricated in direct-write technology. The technology is based on in situ evaporation of the superconductive electrode followed by the oxidation and the normal counter-electrode as a first step and deposition of normal metal absorber as a second one. This approach allows one to realize any geometry of the tunnel junctions and of the absorber with no limitation related to the size of the junctions or the absorber, which is not possible using the shadow evaporation technique. Measurements performed at 300 mK showed the high quality of the fabricated tunnel junctions, low leakage currents, and that an R-d/R-n ratio of 500 has been achieved at that temperature. The junctions were characterized as temperature sensors, and voltage versus temperature dependence measurements showed a dV/dT of 0.5 mV K-1 for each single junction, which is typical for this kind of tunnel junction. A temperature resolution of +/- 5 mu K has been achieved which is much better than the previously reported value of +/- 30 mu K for this type of thermometer

FDG uptake in vaginal tampons is caused by urinary contamination and related to tampon position

Purpose: The aim of the study was to determine the aetiology of FDG uptake in vaginal tampons (VT), a known artefact in premenopausal women evaluated by PET/CT. Methods: This Institutional Review Board approved study consisted of retrospective and prospective parts. The retrospective analysis included 685 women examined between January 2008 and December 2009 regarding VT presence. PET/CT images were analysed to determine the localization and the standardized uptake value (SUV) of VTs. We prospectively recruited 24 women (20-48years old) referred for staging or follow-up in an oncology setting between February and April 2010, who were provided a commercial VT to be used during the entire examination after obtaining written informed consent. After image acquisition, VTs were individually analysed for creatinine concentration and blood traces. Statistical significance was tested with the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: In the retrospective part, 38 of 685 women were found to have a VT of which 17 (45%) were FDG positive. A statistically significant correlation was found between FDG activity and VT position below the pubococcygeal line (PCL) (13 ± 11.2mm). In the prospective study, 7 of 24 (29%) women had increased FDG activity in their VTs (SUV 18.8 ± 11g/ml) but were not menstruating. FDG-positive VTs were significantly lower in position (14.6 ± 11.4mm,below the PCL) than FDG-negative VTs (p = 0.039). The creatinine concentration was significantly increased in all seven positive VTs (931 ± 615μmol/l). Conclusion: FDG uptake in VTs is caused by urine contamination, which is likely related to localization below the PCL resulting in contact with urine during voidin

Multiple functional neurosteroid binding sites on GABAA receptors

Neurosteroids are endogenous modulators of neuronal excitability and nervous system development and are being developed as anesthetic agents and treatments for psychiatric diseases. While gamma amino-butyric acid Type A (GABAA) receptors are the primary molecular targets of neurosteroid action, the structural details of neurosteroid binding to these proteins remain ill defined. We synthesized neurosteroid analogue photolabeling reagents in which the photolabeling groups were placed at three positions around the neurosteroid ring structure, enabling identification of binding sites and mapping of neurosteroid orientation within these sites. Using middle-down mass spectrometry (MS), we identified three clusters of photolabeled residues representing three distinct neurosteroid binding sites in the human α1β3 GABAA receptor. Novel intrasubunit binding sites were identified within the transmembrane helical bundles of both the α1 (labeled residues α1-N408, Y415) and β3 (labeled residue β3-Y442) subunits, adjacent to the extracellular domains (ECDs). An intersubunit site (labeled residues β3-L294 and G308) in the interface between the β3(+) and α1(-) subunits of the GABAA receptor pentamer was also identified. Computational docking studies of neurosteroid to the three sites predicted critical residues contributing to neurosteroid interaction with the GABAA receptors. Electrophysiological studies of receptors with mutations based on these predictions (α1-V227W, N408A/Y411F, and Q242L) indicate that both the α1 intrasubunit and β3-α1 intersubunit sites are critical for neurosteroid action

PET/MR imaging of bone lesions - implications for PET quantification from imperfect attenuation correction

Purpose: Accurate attenuation correction (AC) is essential for quantitative analysis of PET tracer distribution. In MR, the lack of cortical bone signal makes bone segmentation difficult and may require implementation of special sequences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for accurate bone segmentation in MR-based AC for whole-body PET/MR imaging. Methods: In 22 patients undergoing sequential PET/CT and 3-T MR imaging, modified CT AC maps were produced by replacing pixels with values of >100 HU, representing mostly bone structures, by pixels with a constant value of 36 HU corresponding to soft tissue, thereby simulating current MR-derived AC maps. A total of 141 FDG-positive osseous lesions and 50 soft-tissue lesions adjacent to bones were evaluated. The mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean) was measured in each lesion in PET images reconstructed once using the standard AC maps and once using the modified AC maps. Subsequently, the errors in lesion tracer uptake for the modified PET images were calculated using the standard PET image as a reference. Results: Substitution of bone by soft tissue values in AC maps resulted in an underestimation of tracer uptake in osseous and soft tissue lesions adjacent to bones of 11.2 ± 5.4 % (range 1.5-30.8%) and 3.2 ± 1.7 % (range 0.2-4%), respectively. Analysis of the spine and pelvic osseous lesions revealed a substantial dependence of the error on lesion composition. For predominantly sclerotic spine lesions, the mean underestimation was 15.9 ± 3.4% (range 9.9-23.5%) and for osteolytic spine lesions, 7.2 ± 1.7% (range 4.9-9.3%), respectively. Conclusion: CT data simulating treating bone as soft tissue as is currently done in MR maps for PET AC leads to a substantial underestimation of tracer uptake in bone lesions and depends on lesion composition, the largest error being seen in sclerotic lesions. Therefore, depiction of cortical bone and other calcified areas in MR AC maps is necessary for accurate quantification of tracer uptake values in PET/MR imagin

Розвиток творчої активності студентів-гітаристів через імпровізацію під час роботи над музичним твором

(uk) У статті розглядається питання розвитку творчої активності студентів-гітарістів. Надається обґрунтування того, що одним з ефективних засобів розвитку творчої активності студентів-гітарістів є високий рівень засвоєння прийомів імпровізації на заняттях з основного музичного інструменту. Наголошується, що розвиток творчого потенціалу в процесі музично-творчої діяльності студентів буде ефективним за умов здійснення педагогічного керівництва.(ru) В статье рассматривается вопрос развития творческой активности студентов-гитаристов. Предоставляется обоснование того, что одним из эффективных средств развития творческой активности студентов-гитаристов является высокий уровень усвоения приемов импровизации на занятиях основного музыкального инструмента. Отмечается, что развитие творческого потенциала в процессе музыкально-творческой деятельности студентов будет эффективным в условиях осуществления педагогического руководства.(en) This article deals with the development of the creative activity of students guitarists. The ground of being one of the most effective means of creative activity of students guitarists is a high level of mastering techniques of improvisation in the classroom with the main musical instrument. It is noted that the development of creativity in the process of musical and creative activities students will be effective on condition that educational leadership. ndependent work on a musical composition is a productive form of developing students creative musical thinking. In the work plan of the students must be enabled as works of high complexity and fragments or themes from the works that are very difficult to implement fully. The basic weight school repertoire is designed for self-study students

Вероятностный анализ перетоков по межсистемным связям

В результате проведенного анализа определен характер связей, а также характеристики, определяющие нагрузку ЛЭП, и их динамика. Исследована связь величин активных и реактивных мощностей при согласованных и встречных перетоках. Установлены достаточные статистические выборки, с приемлемой точностью описывающие процесс в целом

Not on the edge: the syntax and pragmatics of clause-initial negation in Swedish

The possibility of topicalizing sentential negation is severely restricted in the Germanic V2-languages. In this paper, we show that negative preposing was more frequent and less restricted in earlier stages of Swedish: approx. 8 % of all occurrences of negation are clause initial in Old Swedish, compared to less than 0.5 % in present day Swedish. We propose that this change in frequency can be traced to the syntactic status of the negative element. More specifically, we argue that Old Swedish eigh 'not' may function as a syntactic head and cliticize to the finite verb in [C-0]. This possibility is not open to the XP inte 'not' in Modern Swedish. In Modern Swedish, we argue that the restrictions on negative preposing instead are related to more general pragmatic restrictions on the information expressed in [Spec,CP]: according to our hypothesis, negative preposing is licensed by contrast