Improving and extending models of quantitative judgments

How fast is this car approaching? What is the robability that it will rain today? How severe are the symptoms of this patient? Such quantitative judgments require nferring a continuous criterion from a number of cues or features of the judgment object (e.g., the color of the clouds). Judgments such as these are a central cognitive process which guides our decisions and behavior in our everyday life. For over half a century, researchers are investigating how people make such judgments, which information they rely on, how they combine different types of information, and how the environment or the task affect the processes underlying these judgments by using computational models of the theorized cognitive process. It is the goal of my thesis to improve and extend these models of quantitative judgments. In three articles, I implement and test improved state-of-the art versions of existing models, highlight and solve issues in the way these models are currently used, and extend the scope and possibilities of these models of quantitative judgments. In the first manuscript, I develop, test, and apply a hierarchical Bayesian version of the RulEx-J model, which is used to measure the relative contribution of rule- and exemplar-based processes in people’s judgments. The manuscript shows that the Bayesian RulEx-J model allows to estimate parameters more accurately and how it can be used to test hypotheses about latent parameters. The second manuscript shows that the current practice of not differentiating between direct retrieval of a trained exemplar and genuine judgments in the responses of participants leads to a biased estimation of parameters and reduced fit of exemplar-models. The manuscript also presents a solution to this problem by introducing a latent-mixture extended exemplar model which integrates a direct-recall process of trained exemplars. In the third manuscript, I demonstrate how to model people’s judgments of even complex and realistic stimuli by extracting the necessary cues from pairwise similarity ratings. In sum, the results of the three manuscripts described here contribute to the model-based study of the cognitive processes underlying people’s judgments. By implementing state-of-the-art methods, improving upon current practices, and broadening the scope of the existing research, the results reported in this thesis add to the development, testing, and application of theories of quantitative judgments

What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? modeling numerical judgments of realistic stimuli

Research on processes of multiple-cue judgments usually uses artificial stimuli with predefined cue structures, such as artificial bugs with four binary features like back color, belly color, gland size, and spot shape. One reason for using artifical stimuli is that the cognitive models used in this area need known cues and cue values. This limitation makes it difficult to apply the models to research questions with complex naturalistic stimuli with unknown cue structure. In two studies, building on early categorization research, we demonstrate how cues and cue values of complex naturalistic stimuli can be extracted from pairwise similarity ratings with a multidimensional scaling analysis. These extracted cues can then be used in a state-of-the-art hierarchical Bayesian model of numerical judgments. In the first study, we show that predefined cue structures of artificial stimuli are well recovered by an MDS analysis of similarity judgments and that using these MDS-based attributes as cues in a cognitive model of judgment data from an existing experiment leads to the same inferences as when the original cue values were used. In the second study, we use the same procedure to replicate previous findings from multiple-cue judgment literature using complex naturalistic stimuli

The Power of Choice: A Study Protocol on How Identity Leadership Fosters Commitment Toward the Organization

Identity leadership (IL) describes that the effectiveness of a leader will depend upon his capacity to represent a given group, to make the group go forward, to create a group identity, and to make the group matter. An identity leader may increase commitment among his followers by increasing the perception of shared identity and giving more weight in the decision process to his followers. We aim to explore the mechanisms through which a leader who creates a shared group identity can increase organizational commitment. In the first study, we plan to conduct a cross-cultural correlational study where we aim to test if the relationship between IL and organizational commitment is mediated by team identification and mediated-moderated by participation in decision making (PDM) and collective efficacy. In the second study, we aim to explore the direction of the causality between IL and PDM. To test this hypothesis, we will conduct an experimental study in which (1) we will manipulate IL to test its influence on the perception of PDM and (2) we will manipulate PDM to test its influence on the perception of IL. Thus, we will be able to identify the role of IL and the perception of PDM on organizational commitment

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

Burden of Uncontrolled Severe Asthma With and Without Elevated Type-2 Inflammatory Biomarkers

Background: Many patients with asthma have type-2 airway inflammation, identified by the presence of biomarkers, including history of allergy, high blood eosinophil (EOS) count, and high fractional exhaled nitric oxide levels. Objective: To assess disease burden in relation to type-2 inflammatory biomarker status (history of allergy, blood EOS count, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide level) in patients with uncontrolled and controlled severe asthma in the NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (NOVELTY) (NCT02760329). Methods: Asthma diagnosis and severity were physician-reported. Control was defined using Asthma Control Test score (uncontrolled = 20) and/or 1 or more severe physician-reported exacerbation in the previous year. Biomarker distribution (history of allergy, blood EOS count, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide level), symptom burden (Asthma Control Test score, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale), health status (St George's Respiratory Questionnaire score), exacerbations, and health care resource utilization were assessed. Results: Of 647 patients with severe asthma, 446 had uncontrolled and 123 had controlled asthma. Among those with uncontrolled asthma, 196 (44%) had 2 or more positive biomarkers, 187 (42%) had 1 positive biomarker, 325 (73%) had low blood EOS, and 63 (14%) were triple-negative. Disease burden was similarly high across uncontrolled subgroups, irrespective of biomarker status, with poor symptom control (Asthma Control Test score 14.9-16.6), impaired health status (St George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score 46.7-49.4), clinically important breathlessness (modified Medical Research Council grade >= 2 in 47.3%-57.1%), and 1 or more severe exacerbation (70.6%-76.2%). Conclusions: Type-2 inflammatory biomarkers did not differentiate disease burden in patients with severe asthma. Patients with low type-2 inflammatory biomarker levels have few biologic therapy options; their needs should be addressed

A Many-analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β = 0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β = 0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

Experimental Stimuli

This project contains a collection of different experimental stimuli. Researchers are welcome to use them as experimental stimuli in their own work, citing the corresponding references appropriately (see the Wiki for this project). For the respective licenses of each stimulus set, see the corresponding folder

Medienseminar - Do You Feel the Eeriness?

Medienseminar Portfolio - University of Cologn