Bayesian prior uncertainty and surprisal elicit distinct neural patterns during sound localization in dynamic environments

Estimating the location of a stimulus is a key function in sensory processing, and widely considered to result from the integration of prior information and sensory input according to Bayesian principles. A deviation of sensory input from the prior elicits surprisal, depending on the uncertainty of the prior. While this mechanism is increasingly understood in the visual domain, much less is known about its implementation in audition, especially regarding spatial localization. Here, we combined human EEG with computational modeling to study auditory spatial inference in a noisy, volatile environment and analyzed behavioral and neural patterns associated with prior uncertainty and surprisal. First, our results demonstrate that participants indeed used prior information during periods of stable environmental statistics, but showed evidence of surprisal and discarded prior information following environmental changes. Second, we observed distinct EEG activity patterns associated with prior uncertainty and surprisal in both the time- and time-frequency domain, which are in line with previous studies using visual tasks. Third, these EEG activity patterns were predictive of our participants' sound localization error, response uncertainty, and prior bias on a trial-by-trial basis. In summary, our work provides novel behavioral and neural evidence for Bayesian inference during dynamic auditory localization

High-potency ligands for DREADD imaging and activation in rodents and monkeys.

Designer Receptors Exclusively Activated by Designer Drugs (DREADDs) are a popular chemogenetic technology for manipulation of neuronal activity in uninstrumented awake animals with potential for human applications as well. The prototypical DREADD agonist clozapine N-oxide (CNO) lacks brain entry and converts to clozapine, making it difficult to apply in basic and translational applications. Here we report the development of two novel DREADD agonists, JHU37152 and JHU37160, and the first dedicated 18F positron emission tomography (PET) DREADD radiotracer, [18F]JHU37107. We show that JHU37152 and JHU37160 exhibit high in vivo DREADD potency. [18F]JHU37107 combined with PET allows for DREADD detection in locally-targeted neurons, and at their long-range projections, enabling noninvasive and longitudinal neuronal projection mapping

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

The transplant iron score as a predictor of stem cell transplant survival

Recent studies have suggested that the presence of iron overload prior to stem cell transplantation is associated with decreased survival. Within these studies, the criteria used to define iron overload have varied considerably. Given the lack of consensus regarding the definition of iron overload in the transplant setting, we sought to methodically examine iron status among transplant patients. We studied 78 consecutive patients at risk for transfusion-related iron overload (diagnoses included AML, ALL, MDS, and aplastic anemia) who received either autologous or allogeneic stem cell transplant. Multiple measures of iron status were collected prior to transplantation and examined for their association with survival. Using this data, three potentially prognostic iron measures were identified and incorporated into a rational and unified scoring system. The resulting Transplant Iron Score assigns a point for each of the following variables: (1) greater than 25 red cell units transfused prior to transplantation; (2) serum ferritin > 1000 ng/ml; and (3) a semi-quantitative bone marrow iron stain of 6+. In our cohort, the score (range 0 to 3) was more closely associated with survival than any available single iron parameter. In multivariate analysis, we observed an independent effect of iron overload on transplant survival (p = 0.01) primarily attributable to an increase in early treatment-related deaths (p = 0.02) and lethal infections. In subgroup analysis, the predictive power of the iron score was most pronounced among allogeneic transplant patients, where a high score (≥ 2) was associated with a 50% absolute decrease in survival at one year. In summary, our results lend further credence to the notion that iron overload prior to transplant is detrimental and suggest iron overload may predispose to a higher rate of lethal infections

The fulfillment of parties' election pledges : a comparative study on the impact of power sharing

Why are some parties more likely than others to keep the promises they made during previous election campaigns? This study provides the first comparative analysis that addresses this question with common definitions of pledges and fulfillment. We study the fulfillment of 18,743 pledges made in 54 election campaigns in 12 countries. We find high levels of pledge fulfillment for most parties that enter the government executive, and substantially lower levels for parties that do not. The findings challenge the common view of parties as promise breakers. The degree to which governing parties share power affects pledge fulfillment, with parties in single-party executives, both with and without legislative majorities, having the highest fulfillment rates. Within coalition governments, the likelihood of pledge fulfillment depends on whether the party receives the chief executive post and whether another governing party made a similar pledge, but not on the ideological range of the coalition

High-potency ligands for DREADD imaging and activation in rodents and monkeys

Designer Receptors Exclusively Activated by Designer Drugs (DREADDs) are a popular chemogenetic technology for manipulation of neuronal activity in uninstrumented awake animals with potential for human applications as well. The prototypical DREADD agonist clozapine N-oxide (CNO) lacks brain entry and converts to clozapine, making it difficult to apply in basic and translational applications. Here we report the development of two novel DREADD agonists, JHU37152 and JHU37160, and the first dedicated 18F positron emission tomography (PET) DREADD radiotracer, [18F]JHU37107. We show that JHU37152 and JHU37160 exhibit high in vivo DREADD potency. [18F]JHU37107 combined with PET allows for DREADD detection in locally-targeted neurons, and at their long-range projections, enabling noninvasive and longitudinal neuronal projection mapping