Estimating Functions of Probability Distributions from a Finite Set of Samples, Part 1: Bayes Estimators and the Shannon Entropy

We present estimators for entropy and other functions of a discrete probability distribution when the data is a finite sample drawn from that probability distribution. In particular, for the case when the probability distribution is a joint distribution, we present finite sample estimators for the mutual information, covariance, and chi-squared functions of that probability distribution.Comment: uuencoded compressed tarfile, submitte

Generating Opportunity from Uncertainty

Learning to deal with uncertainty makes organizations more robust. Leaders can take steps to help their organizations take advantage uncertainty. When continued success transitions from informed decision to luck, small differences in the ability of organizations to handle uncertainty can have a large impact. An example from military history is used to outline current day lessons for military and business leaders

Compactifications of moduli spaces inspired by mirror symmetry

We study moduli spaces of nonlinear sigma-models on Calabi-Yau manifolds, using the one-loop semiclassical approximation. The data being parameterized includes a choice of complex structure on the manifold, as well as some ``extra structure'' described by means of classes in H^2. The expectation that this moduli space is well-behaved in these ``extra structure'' directions leads us to formulate a simple and compelling conjecture about the action of the automorphism group on the K\"ahler cone. If true, it allows one to apply Looijenga's ``semi-toric'' technique to construct a partial compactification of the moduli space. We explore the implications which this construction has concerning the properties of the moduli space of complex structures on a ``mirror partner'' of the original Calabi-Yau manifold. We also discuss how a similarity which might have been noticed between certain work of Mumford and of Mori from the 1970's produces (with hindsight) evidence for mirror symmetry which was available in 1979. [The author is willing to mail hardcopy preprints upon request.]Comment: 25 pp., LaTeX 2.09 with AmS-Font

The American Aircraft Industrial Base: On the Brink

An article reviewing the decline in the American aircraft industrial base