Enabling better management of patients: discrete event simulation combined with the STAR approach

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Journal of the Operational Research Society, on 1 May 2017, available online at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1057/s41274-016-0029-y.Squeezed budgets and funding cuts are expected to become a feature of the healthcare landscape in the future, forcing decision makers such as service managers, clinicians and commissioners to find effective ways of allocating scarce resources. This paper discusses the development of a decision support toolkit (DST) that facilitates the improvement of services by identifying cost savings and efficiencies within the pathway of care. With the help of National Health Service and commercial experts, we developed a discrete event simulation model for Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) patients and adapted the socio technical allocation of resources (STAR) approach to answer crucial questions like: what sort of interventions should we spend our money on? Where will we get the most value for our investment? How will we explain the choices we have made? The DST enables users to model their own services by working with the DST interface allowing users to specify local DVT services. They can input local estimates, or data of service demands and capacities, thus creating a baseline discrete event simulation model. The user can then compare the baseline with potential changes in the patient pathway in the safety of a virtual environment. By making such changes key decision makers can easily understand the impact on activity, cost, staffing levels, skill-mix, utilisation of resources and, more importantly, it allows them to find the interventions that have the highest benefit to patients and provide best value for money.Peer reviewe

Demand and Capacity Modelling for Acute Services using Discrete Event Simulation

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Health Systems following peer review. The final publication [Demir, E., Gunal, M & Southern, D., Health Syst (2016), first published online March 11, 2016, is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1057/hs.2016.1 © 2016 Operational Research Society Ltd 2016Increasing demand for services in England with limited healthcare budget has put hospitals under immense pressure. Given that almost all National Health Service (NHS) hospitals have severe capacity constraints (beds and staff shortages) a decision support tool (DST) is developed for the management of a major NHS Trust in England. Acute activities are forecasted over a 5 year period broken down by age groups for 10 specialty areas. Our statistical models have produced forecast accuracies in the region of 90%. We then developed a discrete event simulation model capturing individual patient pathways until discharge (in A&E, inpatient and outpatients), where arrivals are based on the forecasted activity outputting key performance metrics over a period of time, e.g., future activity, bed occupancy rates, required bed capacity, theatre utilisations for electives and non-electives, clinic utilisations, and diagnostic/treatment procedures. The DST allows Trusts to compare key performance metrics for 1,000’s of different scenarios against their existing service (baseline). The power of DST is that hospital decision makers can make better decisions using the simulation model with plausible assumptions which are supported by statistically validated data.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Heisenberg frustrated magnets: a nonperturbative approach

Frustrated magnets are a notorious example where the usual perturbative methods are in conflict. Using a nonperturbative Wilson-like approach, we get a coherent picture of the physics of Heisenberg frustrated magnets everywhere between $d=2$ and $d=4$. We recover all known perturbative results in a single framework and find the transition to be weakly first order in $d=3$. We compute effective exponents in good agreement with numerical and experimental data.Comment: 5 pages, Revtex, technical details available at http://www.lpthe.jussieu.fr/~tissie

A simulation tool for better management of retinal services

Background: Advances in the management of retinal diseases have been fast-paced as new treatments become available, resulting in increasing numbers of patients receiving treatment in hospital retinal services. These patients require frequent and long-term follow-up and repeated treatments, resulting in increased pressure on clinical workloads. Due to limited clinic capacity, many National Health Service (NHS) clinics are failing to maintain recommended follow-up intervals for patients receiving care. As such, clear and robust, long term retinal service models are required to assess and respond to the needs of local populations, both currently and in the future. Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) tool was developed to facilitate the improvement of retinal services by identifying efficiencies and cost savings within the pathway of care. For a mid-size hospital in England serving a population of over 500,000, we used 36 months of patient level data in conjunction with statistical forecasting and simulation to predict the impact of making changes within the service. Results: A simulation of increased demand and a potential solution of the 'Treat and Extend' (T&E) regimen which is reported to result in better outcomes, in combination with virtual clinics which improve quality, effectiveness and productivity and thus increase capacity is presented. Without the virtual clinic, where T&E is implemented along with the current service, we notice a sharp increase in the number of follow-ups, number of Anti-VEGF injections, and utilisation of resources. In the case of combining T&E with virtual clinics, there is a negligible (almost 0%) impact on utilisation of resources. Conclusions: Expansion of services to accommodate increasing number of patients seen and treated in retinal services is feasible with service re-organisation. It is inevitable that some form of initial investment is required to implement service expansion through T&E and virtual clinics. However, modelling with DES indicates that such investment is outweighed by cost reductions in the long term as more patients receive optimal treatment and retain vision with better outcomes. The model also shows that the service will experience an average of 10% increase in surplus capacity.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Chaste: an open source C++ library for computational physiology and biology

Chaste - Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment - is an open source C++ library for the computational simulation of mathematical models developed for physiology and biology. Code development has been driven by two initial applications: cardiac electrophysiology and cancer development. A large number of cardiac electrophysiology studies have been enabled and performed, including high performance computational investigations of defibrillation on realistic human cardiac geometries. New models for the initiation and growth of tumours have been developed. In particular, cell-based simulations have provided novel insight into the role of stem cells in the colorectal crypt. Chaste is constantly evolving and is now being applied to a far wider range of problems. The code provides modules for handling common scientific computing components, such as meshes and solvers for ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs). Re-use of these components avoids the need for researchers to "re-invent the wheel" with each new project, accelerating the rate of progress in new applications. Chaste is developed using industrially-derived techniques, in particular test-driven development, to ensure code quality, re-use and reliability. In this article we provide examples that illustrate the types of problems Chaste can be used to solve, which can be run on a desktop computer. We highlight some scientific studies that have used or are using Chaste, and the insights they have provided. The source code, both for specific releases and the development version, is available to download under an open source Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) licence at http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste, together with details of a mailing list and links to documentation and tutorials

Borrelia recurrentis employs a novel multifunctional surface protein with anti-complement, anti-opsonic and invasive potential to escape innate immunity

Borrelia recurrentis, the etiologic agent of louse-borne relapsing fever in humans, has evolved strategies, including antigenic variation, to evade immune defence, thereby causing severe diseases with high mortality rates. Here we identify for the first time a multifunctional surface lipoprotein of B. recurrentis, termed HcpA, and demonstrate that it binds human complement regulators, Factor H, CFHR-1, and simultaneously, the host protease plasminogen. Cell surface bound factor H was found to retain its activity and to confer resistance to complement attack. Moreover, ectopic expression of HcpA in a B. burgdorferi B313 strain, deficient in Factor H binding proteins, protected the transformed spirochetes from complement-mediated killing. Furthermore, HcpA-bound plasminogen/plasmin endows B. recurrentis with the potential to resist opsonization and to degrade extracellular matrix components. Together, the present study underscores the high virulence potential of B. recurrentis. The elucidation of the molecular basis underlying the versatile strategies of B. recurrentis to escape innate immunity and to persist in human tissues, including the brain, may help to understand the pathological processes underlying louse-borne relapsing fever

Exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide as a marker of early Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in children with cystic fibrosis

Hydrogen cyanide is readily detected in the headspace above Pseudomonas aeruginosa cultures and in the breath of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients with chronic (P. aeruginosa) infection. We investigated if exhaled breath HCN is an early marker of P. aeruginosa infection. 233 children with CF who were free from P. aeruginosa infection were followed for 2 years. Their median (interquartile range) age was 8.0 (5.0–12.2) years. At each study visit, an exhaled breath sample was collected for hydrogen cyanide analysis. In total, 2055 breath samples were analysed. At the end of the study, the hydrogen cyanide concentrations were compared to the results of routine microbiology surveillance. P. aeruginosa was isolated from 71 children during the study with an incidence (95% CI) of 0.19 (0.15–0.23) cases per patient-year. Using a random-effects logistic model, the estimated odds ratio (95% CI) was 3.1 (2.6–3.6), which showed that for a 1- ppbv increase in exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide, we expected a 212% increase in the odds of P. aeruginosa infection. The sensitivity and specificity were estimated at 33% and 99%, respectively. Exhaled breath hydrogen cyanide is a specific biomarker of new P. aeruginosa infection in children with CF. Its low sensitivity means that at present, hydrogen cyanide cannot be used as a screening test for this infection

A Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the treatment pathways of patients with Cataract in the United Kingdom

Background The number of people affected by cataract in the United Kingdom (UK) is growing rapidly due to ageing population. As the only way to treat cataract is through surgery, there is a high demand for this type of surgery and figures indicate that it is the most performed type of surgery in the UK. The National Health Service (NHS), which provides free of charge care in the UK, is under huge financial pressure due to budget austerity in the last decade. As the number of people affected by the disease is expected to grow significantly in coming years, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether the introduction of new processes and medical technologies will enable cataract services to cope with the demand within the NHS funding constraints. Methods We developed a Discrete Event Simulation model representing the cataract services pathways at Leicester Royal Infirmary Hospital. The model was inputted with data from national and local sources as well as from a surgery demand forecasting model developed in the study. The model was verified and validated with the participation of the cataract services clinical and management teams. Results Four scenarios involving increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot were simulated. Results indicate that the total number of surgeries per year could be increased by 40% at no extra cost. However, the rate of improvement decreases for increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot due to a higher number of cancelled surgeries. Productivity is expected to improve as the total number of doctors and nurses hours will increase by 5 and 12% respectively. However, non-human resources such as pre-surgery rooms and post-surgery recovery chairs are under-utilized across all scenarios. Conclusions Using new processes and medical technologies for cataract surgery is a promising way to deal with the expected higher demand especially as this could be achieved with limited impact on costs. Non-human resources capacity need to be evenly levelled across the surgery pathway to improve their utilisation. The performance of cataract services could be improved by better communication with and proactive management of patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Colorado River Basin Study Comments--Southern Nevada Water Authority

Comments on the Colorado River Basin Study prepared by the the Western Water Policy Review Advisory Commission