Overconfidence in Photometric Redshift Estimation

We describe a new test of photometric redshift performance given a spectroscopic redshift sample. This test complements the traditional comparison of redshift {\it differences} by testing whether the probability density functions $p(z)$ have the correct {\it width}. We test two photometric redshift codes, BPZ and EAZY, on each of two data sets and find that BPZ is consistently overconfident (the $p(z)$ are too narrow) while EAZY produces approximately the correct level of confidence. We show that this is because EAZY models the uncertainty in its spectral energy distribution templates, and that post-hoc smoothing of the BPZ $p(z)$ provides a reasonable substitute for detailed modeling of template uncertainties. Either remedy still leaves a small surplus of galaxies with spectroscopic redshift very far from the peaks. Thus, better modeling of low-probability tails will be needed for high-precision work such as dark energy constraints with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and other large surveys.Comment: accepted to MNRA

Soft Contract Verification

Behavioral software contracts are a widely used mechanism for governing the flow of values between components. However, run-time monitoring and enforcement of contracts imposes significant overhead and delays discovery of faulty components to run-time. To overcome these issues, we present soft contract verification, which aims to statically prove either complete or partial contract correctness of components, written in an untyped, higher-order language with first-class contracts. Our approach uses higher-order symbolic execution, leveraging contracts as a source of symbolic values including unknown behavioral values, and employs an updatable heap of contract invariants to reason about flow-sensitive facts. We prove the symbolic execution soundly approximates the dynamic semantics and that verified programs can't be blamed. The approach is able to analyze first-class contracts, recursive data structures, unknown functions, and control-flow-sensitive refinements of values, which are all idiomatic in dynamic languages. It makes effective use of an off-the-shelf solver to decide problems without heavy encodings. The approach is competitive with a wide range of existing tools---including type systems, flow analyzers, and model checkers---on their own benchmarks.Comment: ICFP '14, September 1-6, 2014, Gothenburg, Swede

Size-Change Termination as a Contract

Termination is an important but undecidable program property, which has led to a large body of work on static methods for conservatively predicting or enforcing termination. One such method is the size-change termination approach of Lee, Jones, and Ben-Amram, which operates in two phases: (1) abstract programs into "size-change graphs," and (2) check these graphs for the size-change property: the existence of paths that lead to infinite decreasing sequences. We transpose these two phases with an operational semantics that accounts for the run-time enforcement of the size-change property, postponing (or entirely avoiding) program abstraction. This choice has two key consequences: (1) size-change termination can be checked at run-time and (2) termination can be rephrased as a safety property analyzed using existing methods for systematic abstraction. We formulate run-time size-change checks as contracts in the style of Findler and Felleisen. The result compliments existing contracts that enforce partial correctness specifications to obtain contracts for total correctness. Our approach combines the robustness of the size-change principle for termination with the precise information available at run-time. It has tunable overhead and can check for nontermination without the conservativeness necessary in static checking. To obtain a sound and computable termination analysis, we apply existing abstract interpretation techniques directly to the operational semantics, avoiding the need for custom abstractions for termination. The resulting analyzer is competitive with with existing, purpose-built analyzers

Localisation of gamma-ray interaction points in thick monolithic CeBr3 and LaBr3:Ce scintillators

Localisation of gamma-ray interaction points in monolithic scintillator crystals can simplify the design and improve the performance of a future Compton telescope for gamma-ray astronomy. In this paper we compare the position resolution of three monolithic scintillators: a 28x28x20 mm3 (length x breadth x thickness) LaBr3:Ce crystal, a 25x25x20 mm3 CeBr3 crystal and a 25x25x10 mm3 CeBr3 crystal. Each crystal was encapsulated and coupled to an array of 4x4 silicon photomultipliers through an optical window. The measurements were conducted using 81 keV and 356 keV gamma-rays from a collimated 133Ba source. The 3D position reconstruction of interaction points was performed using artificial neural networks trained with experimental data. Although the position resolution was significantly better for the thinner crystal, the 20 mm thick CeBr3 crystal showed an acceptable resolution of about 5.4 mm FWHM for the x and y coordinates, and 7.8 mm FWHM for the z-coordinate (crystal depth) at 356 keV. These values were obtained from the full position scans of the crystal sides. The position resolution of the LaBr3:Ce crystal was found to be considerably worse, presumably due to the highly diffusive optical in- terface between the crystal and the optical window of the enclosure. The energy resolution (FWHM) measured for 662 keV gamma-rays was 4.0% for LaBr3:Ce and 5.5% for CeBr3. The same crystals equipped with a PMT (Hamamatsu R6322-100) gave an energy resolution of 3.0% and 4.7%, respectively

Integrating methods for determining length-at-age to improve growth estimates for two large scombrids

Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone