Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

Effect of D222G Mutation in the Hemagglutinin Protein on Receptor Binding, Pathogenesis and Transmissibility of the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus

Influenza viruses isolated during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic generally lack known molecular determinants of virulence associated with previous pandemic and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. The frequency of the amino acid substitution D222G in the hemagglutinin (HA) of 2009 H1N1 viruses isolated from severe but not mild human cases represents the first molecular marker associated with enhanced disease. To assess the relative contribution of this substitution in virus pathogenesis, transmission, and tropism, we introduced D222G by reverse genetics in the wild-type HA of the 2009 H1N1 virus, A/California/04/09 (CA/04). A dose-dependent glycan array analysis with the D222G virus showed a modest reduction in the binding avidity to human-like (α2-6 sialylated glycan) receptors and an increase in the binding to avian-like (α2-3 sialylated glycan) receptors in comparison with wild-type virus. In the ferret pathogenesis model, the D222G mutant virus was found to be similar to wild-type CA/04 virus with respect to lethargy, weight loss and replication efficiency in the upper and lower respiratory tract. Moreover, based on viral detection, the respiratory droplet transmission properties of these two viruses were found to be similar. The D222G virus failed to productively infect mice inoculated by the ocular route, but exhibited greater viral replication and weight loss than wild-type CA/04 virus in mice inoculated by the intranasal route. In a more relevant human cell model, D222G virus replicated with delayed kinetics compared with wild-type virus but to higher titer in human bronchial epithelial cells. These findings suggest that although the D222G mutation does not influence virus transmission, it may be considered a molecular marker for enhanced replication in certain cell types.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)United States. National Institutes of Health (merit award R37 GM057073-13)Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technolog

Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Background: In April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents. Methods and Findings: Anonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920-2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n = 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/ 1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n = 100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10-19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70-79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18-24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%. Conclusions: After the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children. © 2010 Zimmer et al

School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

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The usefulness of case reports in managing emerging infectious disease

Emerging infectious diseases are an important problem in medicine. Case reports usually document episodes in the early emerging phase or in a small outbreak. Although the case report is considered weak evidence in medical literature, it is usually the first report when there is a new emerging infectious disease. There is no doubt that case reports can provide useful information for further case series, reviews and studies. This editorial focuses on the usefulness of the case report on emerging infectious disease to the medical society. Publication in this area is highly welcomed by the journal and can serve as a future point of reference

Male predominance of pneumonia and hospitalization in pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) disproportionately affects different age groups. The purpose of the current study was to describe the age and gender difference of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) cases that lead to pneumonia, hospitalization or ICU admission.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected retrospectively between May 2009 and December 2009. All of the diagnoses of H1N1 were confirmed by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the study period there were 3402 cases of RT-PCR positive H1N1, among which 1812 were males and 1626 were adults (> 15 years of age). 6% (206/3402) of patients required hospitalization, 3.6% (122/3402) had infiltrates on chest radiographs, and 0.70% (24/3402) were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). The overall fatality rate was 0.1% (4/3402). The rate of hospitalization was sharply increased in patients ≥ 50 years of age especially in male. Out of 122 pneumonia patients, 68.8% (84 patients) were male. Among the patients admitted to the ICU, 70.8% (17 patients) were male. Approximately 1 of 10 H1N1-infected patients admitted to the ICU were ≥ 70 years of age.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Among the confirmed cases of H1N1, the ICU admission rate was < 1% and the case fatality rate was 0.1%. Male had a significantly higher rate of pneumonia and hospital admission. These findings should be taken into consideration when developing vaccination and treatment strategies.</p

Protective Effect of Ginseng Polysaccharides on Influenza Viral Infection

Ginseng polysaccharide has been known to have multiple immunomodulatory effects. In this study, we investigated whether Panax ginseng polysaccharide (GP) would have a preventive effect on influenza infection. Administration of mice with GP prior to infection was found to confer a survival benefit against infection with H1N1 (A/PR/8/34) and H3N2 (A/Philippines/82) influenza viruses. Mice infected with the 2009 H1N1 virus suspended in GP solution showed moderately enhanced survival rates and lower levels of lung viral titers and the inflammatory cytokine (IL-6). Daily treatment of vaccinated mice with GP improved their survival against heterosubtypic lethal challenge. This study demonstrates the first evidence that GP can be used as a remedy against influenza viral infection

Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1)

Abstract Background Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. Methods We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. Results The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. Conclusions Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one infectious individual, rather than causing a single outbreak of H1N1, could cause several simultaneous outbreaks. These results imply that, during a pandemic, quarantining passengers who travel in Economy on long-haul flights could potentially be an important control strategy. Notably, our results show that quarantining passengers who travel First Class would be unlikely to be an effective control strategy

Detection of Extensive Cross-Neutralization between Pandemic and Seasonal A/H1N1 Influenza Viruses Using a Pseudotype Neutralization Assay

BACKGROUND: Cross-immunity between seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses remains uncertain. In particular, the extent that previous infection or vaccination by seasonal A/H1N1 viruses can elicit protective immunity against pandemic A/H1N1 is unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Neutralizing titers against seasonal A/H1N1 (A/Brisbane/59/2007) and against pandemic A/H1N1 (A/California/04/2009) were measured using an HIV-1-based pseudovirus neutralization assay. Using this highly sensitive assay, we found that a large fraction of subjects who had never been exposed to pandemic A/H1N1 express high levels of pandemic A/H1N1 neutralizing titers. A significant correlation was seen between neutralization of pandemic A/H1N1 and neutralization of a standard seasonal A/H1N1 strain. Significantly higher pandemic A/H1N1 neutralizing titers were measured in subjects who had received vaccination against seasonal influenza in 2008-2009. Higher pandemic neutralizing titers were also measured in subjects over 60 years of age. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings reveal that the extent of protective cross-immunity between seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses may be more important than previously estimated. This cross-immunity could provide a possible explanation of the relatively mild profile of the recent influenza pandemic

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability