Spatial analysis of malaria incidence at the village level in areas with unstable transmission in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia, accounting for over five million cases and thousands of deaths annually. The risks of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria are characterized by spatial and temporal variation across the country. This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of malaria transmission at the local level and implements a risk mapping tool to aid in monitoring and disease control activities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, we examine the global and local patterns of malaria distribution in 543 villages in East Shoa, central Ethiopia using individual-level morbidity data collected from six laboratory and treatment centers between September 2002 and August 2006.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Statistical analysis of malaria incidence by sex, age, and village through time reveal the presence of significant spatio-temporal variations. Poisson regression analysis shows a decrease in malaria incidence with increasing age. A significant difference in the malaria incidence density ratio (IDRs) is detected in males but not in females. A significant decrease in the malaria IDRs with increasing age is captured by a quadratic model. Local spatial statistics reveals clustering or hot spots within a 5 and 10 km distance of most villages in the study area. In addition, there are temporal variations in malaria incidence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Malaria incidence varies according to gender and age, with males age 5 and above showing a statistically higher incidence. Significant local clustering of malaria incidence occurs between pairs of villages within 1–10 km distance lags. Malaria incidence was higher in 2002–2003 than in other periods of observation. Malaria hot spots are displayed as risk maps that are useful for monitoring and spatial targeting of prevention and control measures against the disease.</p

Insecticide resistance in Anopheles arabiensis from Ethiopia (2012-2016): a nationwide study for insecticide resistance monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) remain the cornerstones of malaria vector control. However, the development of insecticide resistance and its implications for operational failure of preventative strategies are of concern. The aim of this study was to characterize insecticide resistance among Anopheles arabiensis populations in Ethiopia and describe temporal and spatial patterns of resistance between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2016, resistance status of An. arabiensis was assessed annually during the long rainy seasons in study sites from seven of the nine regions in Ethiopia. Insecticide resistance levels were measured with WHO susceptibility tests and CDC bottle bioassays using insecticides from four chemical classes (organochlorines, pyrethroids, organophosphates and carbamates), with minor variations in insecticides tested and assays conducted between years. In selected sites, CDC synergist assays were performed by pre-exposing mosquitoes to piperonyl butoxide (PBO). In 2015 and 2016, mosquitoes from DDT and deltamethrin bioassays were randomly selected, identified to species-level and screened for knockdown resistance (kdr) by PCR. RESULTS: Intense resistance to DDT and pyrethroids was pervasive across Ethiopia, consistent with historic use of DDT for IRS and concomitant increases in insecticide-treated net coverage over the last 15 years. Longitudinal resistance trends to malathion, bendiocarb, propoxur and pirimiphos-methyl corresponded to shifts in the national insecticide policy. By 2016, resistance to the latter two insecticides had emerged, with the potential to jeopardize future long-term effectiveness of vector control activities in these areas. Between 2015 and 2016, the West African (L1014F) kdr allele was detected in 74.1% (n = 686/926) of specimens, with frequencies ranging from 31 to 100% and 33 to 100% in survivors from DDT and deltamethrin bioassays, respectively. Restoration of mosquito susceptibility, following pre-exposure to PBO, along with a lack of association between kdr allele frequency and An. arabiensis mortality rate, both indicate metabolic and target-site mutation mechanisms are contributing to insecticide resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Data generated by this study will strengthen the National Malaria Control Programme's insecticide resistance management strategy to safeguard continued efficacy of IRS and other malaria control methods in Ethiopia

Orientation Study on the Economic Potential of an Orgel Power Plant Equipped with a G-30 Fuel Element. EUR 4251.

Abstract Background Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is the application of insecticide to the interior walls of household structures that often serve as resting sites for mosquito vectors of malaria. Human exposure to malaria vectors is reduced when IRS involves proper application of pre-determined concentrations of the active ingredient specific to the insecticide formulation of choice. The impact of IRS can be affected by the dosage of insecticide, spray coverage, vector behavior, vector susceptibility to insecticides, and the residual efficacy of the insecticide applied. This report compiles data on the residual efficacy of insecticides used in IRS campaigns implemented by the United States President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI)/United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 17 African countries and compares observed length of efficacy to ranges proposed in World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Additionally, this study provides initial analysis on variation of mosquito mortality depending on the surface material of sprayed structures, country spray program, year of implementation, source of tested mosquitoes, and type of insecticide. Methods Residual efficacy of the insecticides used for PMI/USAID-supported IRS campaigns was measured in Benin, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The WHO cone bioassay tests were used to assess the mortality rate of mosquitoes exposed to insecticide-treated mud, wood, cement, and other commonly used housing materials. Baseline tests were performed within weeks of IRS application and follow-up tests were continued until the mortality of exposed mosquitoes dropped below 80% or the program monitoring period ended. Residual efficacy in months was then evaluated with respect to WHO guidelines that provide suggested ranges of residual efficacy for insecticide formulations recommended for use in IRS. Where the data allowed, direct comparisons of mosquito mortality rates were then made to determine any significant differences when comparing insecticide formulation, country, year, surface type, and the source of the mosquitoes used in testing. Results The residual efficacy of alpha-cypermethrin ranged from 4 to 10 months (average = 6.4 months), with no reported incidents of underperformance when compared to the efficacy range provided in WHO guidelines. Deltamethrin residual efficacy results reported a range of 1 to 10 months (average = 4.9 months), with two instances of underperformance. The residual efficacy of bendiocarb ranged from 2 weeks to 7 months (average = 2.8 months) and failed to achieve proposed minimum efficacy on 14 occasions. Lastly, long-lasting pirimiphos-methyl efficacy ranged from 2 months to 9 months (average = 5.3 months), but reported 13 incidents of underperformance. Conclusions Much of the data used to determine application rate and expected efficacy of insecticides approved for use in IRS programs are collected in controlled laboratory or pilot field studies. However, the generalizability of the results obtained under controlled conditions are limited and unlikely to account for variation in locally sourced housing materials, climate, and the myriad other factors that may influence the bio-efficacy of insecticides. Here, data are presented that confirm the variation in residual efficacy observed when monitoring household surfaces sprayed during PMI/USAID-supported IRS campaigns. All insecticides except alpha-cypermethrin showed evidence of failing to meet the minimum range of residual efficacy proposed in WHO criteria at least once. However, this initial effort in characterizing program-wide insecticide bio-efficacy indicates that some insecticides, such as bendiocarb and pirimiphos-methyl, may be vulnerable to variations in the local environment. Additionally, the comparative analysis performed in this study provides evidence that mosquito mortality rates differ with respect to factors including: the types of insecticide sprayed, surface material, geographical location, year of spraying, and tested mosquitoes. It is, therefore, important to locally assess the residual efficacy of insecticides on various surfaces to inform IRS programming

Сучасний стан використання альтернативних джерел енергії в Україні

3. standard CDC bottle bioassay results for species complex and subgroup sample

<i>Anopheles stephensi</i> as an emerging malaria vector in the Horn of Africa with high susceptibility to Ethiopian <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> and <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> isolates

AbstractAnopheles stephensi, an efficient Asian malaria vector, recently spread into the Horn of Africa and may increase malaria receptivity in African urban areas. We assessed occurrence, genetic complexity, blood meal source and infection status of An. stephensi in Awash Sebat Kilo town, Ethiopia. We used membrane feeding assays to assess competence of local An. stephensi to P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates from clinical patients. 75.3% of the examined waterbodies were infested with An. stephensi developmental stages that were genetically closely related to isolates from Djibouti and Pakistan. Both P. vivax and P. falciparum were detected in wild-caught adult An. stephensi. Local An. stephensi was more receptive to P. vivax compared to a colony of An. arabiensis. We conclude that An. stephensi is an established vector in this part of Ethiopia, highly permissive for local P. vivax and P. falciparum isolates and presents an important new challenge for malaria control.Summary of the articleAn. stephensi, a metropolitan malaria vector that recently expanded to the Horn of African, was highly susceptible to local P. falciparum and P. vivax isolates from Ethiopia and may increase malariogenic potential of rapidly expanding urban settings in Africa.</jats:sec

Indoor Residual Spraying Delivery Models to Prevent Malaria: Comparison of Community- and District-Based Approaches in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) for malaria prevention has traditionally been implemented in Ethiopia by the district health office with technical and operational inputs from regional, zonal, and central health offices. The United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) in collaboration with the Government of Ethiopia tested the effectiveness and efficiency of integrating IRS into the government-funded community-based rural health services program. METHODS: Between 2012 and 2014, PMI conducted a mixed-methods study in 11 districts of Oromia region to compare district-based IRS (DB IRS) and community-based IRS (CB IRS) models. In the DB IRS model, each district included 2 centrally located operational sites where spray teams camped during the IRS campaign and from which they traveled to the villages to conduct spraying. In the CB IRS model, spray team members were hired from the communities in which they operated, thus eliminating the need for transport and camping facilities. The study team evaluated spray coverage, the quality of spraying, compliance with environmental and safety standards, and cost and performance efficiency. RESULTS: The average number of eligible structures found and sprayed in the CB IRS districts increased by 19.6% and 20.3%, respectively, between 2012 (before CB IRS) and 2013 (during CB IRS). Between 2013 and 2014, the numbers increased by about 14%. In contrast, in the DB IRS districts the number of eligible structures found increased by only 8.1% between 2012 and 2013 and by 0.4% between 2013 and 2014. The quality of CB IRS operations was good and comparable to that in the DB IRS model, according to wall bioassay tests. Some compliance issues in the first year of CB IRS implementation were corrected in the second year, bringing compliance up to the level of the DB IRS model. The CB IRS model had, on average, higher amortized costs per district than the DB IRS model but lower unit costs per structure sprayed and per person protected because the community-based model found and sprayed more structures. CONCLUSION: Established community-based service delivery systems can be adapted to include a seasonal IRS campaign alongside the community-based health workers' routine activities to improve performance efficiency. Further modifications of the community-based IRS model may reduce the total cost of the intervention and increase its financial sustainability

The potential impact of Anopheles stephensi establishment on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Ethiopia and prospective control measures

Abstract Background Sub-Saharan Africa has seen substantial reductions in cases and deaths due to malaria over the past two decades. While this reduction is primarily due to an increasing expansion of interventions, urbanisation has played its part as urban areas typically experience substantially less malaria transmission than rural areas. However, this may be partially lost with the invasion and establishment of Anopheles stephensi. A. stephensi, the primary urban malaria vector in Asia, was first detected in Africa in 2012 in Djibouti and was subsequently identified in Ethiopia in 2016, and later in Sudan and Somalia. In Djibouti, malaria cases have increased 30-fold from 2012 to 2019 though the impact in the wider region remains unclear. Methods Here, we have adapted an existing model of mechanistic malaria transmission to estimate the increase in vector density required to explain the trends in malaria cases seen in Djibouti. To account for the observed plasticity in An. stephensi behaviour, and the unknowns of how it will establish in a novel environment, we sample behavioural parameters in order to account for a wide range of uncertainty. This quantification is then applied to Ethiopia, considering temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation periods, pre-existing vector-control interventions and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in order to assess the potential impact of An. stephensi establishment on P. falciparum transmission. Following this, we estimate the potential impact of scaling up ITN (insecticide-treated nets)/IRS (indoor residual spraying) and implementing piperonyl butoxide (PBO) ITNs and larval source management, as well as their economic costs. Results We estimate that annual P. falciparum malaria cases could increase by 50% (95% CI 14–90) if no additional interventions are implemented. The implementation of sufficient control measures to reduce malaria transmission to pre-stephensi levels will cost hundreds of millions of USD. Conclusions Substantial heterogeneity across the country is predicted and large increases in vector control interventions could be needed to prevent a major public health emergency. </jats:sec