Autoregressive approaches to import-export time series I: basic techniques

This work is the first part of a project dealing with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. In particular, we develop an approach mainly based on vector autoregressions, where lagged values of two or more variables are considered, Granger causality, and the stochastic trend approach useful to work with the cointegration phenomenon. Latter techniques constitute the core of the present paper, whereas in the second part of the project, we present how these approaches can be applied to economic data at our disposal in order to obtain concrete analysis of import--export behavior for the considered productive area of Verona.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.15559/15-VMSTA22 in the Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications (https://www.i-journals.org/vtxpp/VMSTA) by VTeX (http://www.vtex.lt/

Mean field games with controlled jump-diffusion dynamics: Existence results and an illiquid interbank market model

We study a family of mean field games with a state variable evolving as a multivariate jump diffusion process. The jump component is driven by a Poisson process with a time-dependent intensity function. All coefficients, i.e. drift, volatility and jump size, are controlled. Under fairly general conditions, we establish existence of a solution in a relaxed version of the mean field game and give conditions under which the optimal strategies are in fact Markovian, hence extending to a jump-diffusion setting previous results established in [30]. The proofs rely upon the notions of relaxed controls and martingale problems. Finally, to complement the abstract existence results, we study a simple illiquid inter-bank market model, where the banks can change their reserves only at the jump times of some exogenous Poisson processes with a common constant intensity, and provide some numerical results.Comment: 37 pages, 6 figure

Approximation and convergence of solutions to semilinear stochastic evolution equations with jumps

We prove that the mild solution to a semilinear stochastic evolution equation on a Hilbert space, driven by either a square integrable martingale or a Poisson random measure, is (jointly) continuous, in a suitable topology, with respect to the initial datum and all coefficients. In particular, if the leading linear operators are maximal (quasi-)monotone and converge in the strong resolvent sense, the drift and diffusion coefficients are uniformly Lipschitz continuous and converge pointwise, and the initial data converge, then the solutions converge.Comment: 28 pages, no figure

Mild solutions to the dynamic programming equation for stochastic optimal control problems

We show via the nonlinear semigroup theory in $L^1(\mathbb{R})$ that the $1$-D dynamic programming equation associated with a stochastic optimal control problem with multiplicative noise has a unique mild solution $\varphi\in C([0,T];W^{1,\infty}(\mathbb{R}))$ with $\varphi_{xx}\in C([0,T];L^1(\mathbb{R}))$. The $n$-dimensional case is also investigated