Returns to university education; evidence from an institutional reform

In 1982, duration of university education in the Netherlands decreased from five to four years. This institutional reform is exploited for estimating the causal effect of one year of university education on wages in 1997. Wages of employees who enrolled just before or after the reform are compared using data from the Dutch Wage Structure Survey of 1997. We find that the fifth year of university education increased wages with 7 to 9 percent. This wage differential is found for employees enrolling four years before or after the reform. Confounding factors like time-effects, typical age-effects or ability-bias do not seem to bias the main results. The findings suggest that there is scope for increasing private contributions of students. Moreover, the reform may have harmed total welfare. Alternative policies of sticking to five-year duration and increasing private contributions for higher education could have given a more favourable outcome.

Assessing the returns to studying abroad

The market for higher education increasingly becomes an international market. Nowadays, the number of students studying abroad is substantial and increasing. Many governments stimulate students to study abroad by offering a wide range of grants. However, little is known on the returns to studying abroad. This paper explores the feasibility of a new approach for finding credible evidence on the returns to studying abroad. We use a sample of graduates who applied for a specific grant for studying abroad and compare the outcomes of graduates who received the grant with the outcomes of graduates who did not receive the grant. The ranking of the applicants by the selection committee has been used to create credible control groups. We find that the grant has increased the probability of studying abroad with 23 to 42%-points and the duration of the study with 7 to 9 months. An extension of the study with 7 to 9 months increases the probability of living abroad with 30 to 39%-points. Studying abroad is associated with higher wages. However, it is not clear whether these higher wages are caused by studying abroad.

The effect of education on smoking behaviour: New evidence from smoking durations of a sample of twins

We analyse the causal effect of education on starting and quitting smoking, using longitudinal data of Australian twins. We take into account the endogeneity of education, censoring of smoking durations and the timing of starting smoking versus that of completing education by using the flexible Mixed Proportional Hazard (MPH) specification. Unobserved effects in the specification are assumed to be twin specific and possibly correlated with completed education years. In addition, we use various unique control indicators reflecting the discounting behaviour of individuals that may affect both the smoking decision and the number of education years. In contrast to previous studies in our model specification, differences in the number of education years cannot explain differences in smoking behaviour at young ages. We find one additional year of education to reduce the duration of smoking with 9 months, but no significant effect of education on starting smoking. The effect of education on quitting smoking largely confines to male twins. This suggests that education policies that succeed in raising the level of education may improve public health through an increase of smoking cessation, but are not effective in preventing smoking at young ages.

Raising teacher supply: An assessment of three options for increasing wages

A shortage of teachers in primary and secondary schools in the Netherlands is expected in the near future as a large part of the current workforce will retire. Recently, the Dutch government has decided to increase wages of teachers. This paper qualitatively assesses the impact of three options for increasing teaching wages on teacher supply in the medium term: increasing wages at the start of the career, increasing wages at mid career or increasing wages at the end of the career.

Successful knowledge policies

Knowledge policy is widely considered to be an important subject. The Dutch government conducts intensive policy on the foundations of the knowledge economy: education, research and innovation. In the literature and in policy circles, proposals for additional knowledge policies or reforms of existing policies are currently being discussed. Examples are the Knowledge Investment Agenda of the Innovation Platform, new innovation policies of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, an advice of the Council of Economic Advisors about research, education and entrepreneurship and an advice of the Education Council. Little is known, however, about the effects of all these policies. The question whether knowledge policy works remains difficult to answer. Despite much research effort in the past decades, the manner in which the creation and application of knowledge comes about and the way policy can influence that process are still not well understood. It is difficult, therefore, to form a good judgement about the optimal size and form of knowledge policy. This article discusses several policy options in the fields of education, research, and innovation that are likely to have beneficial, neutral, or negative effects on overall welfare in the Netherlands. For some options, the effects are unknown. Beneficial education policies are, for instance, policies aimed at increasing teachers' quality and early childhood education programs. Additional R&D tax credits for new firms have favourable effects on innovation. A further increase in the research incentives to universities is expected to raise scientific output.

The Effect of Education on Smoking Behavior: New Evidence from Smoking Durations of a Sample of Twins

This paper analyses the effect of education on starting and quitting smoking, using longitudinal data of Australian twins. The endogeneity of education, censoring of smoking durations and the timing of starting smoking versus that of completion of education are taken into account by the flexible Mixed Proportional Hazard specification. Unobserved effects are assumed to be twin specific and possibly correlated with completed education years. We find that one additional year of education reduces the duration of smoking with 9 months but has no effect on the decision to start smoking.education, duration models, smoking

Skill gaps in the EU: role for education and training policies

Skill gaps are widely seen as a problem that lowers aggregate productivity growth. A question for the European Commission is whether and how governments should take action with education and training policies to reduce skill gaps and make Europe the best performing region in the world. European citizens can best decide for themselves on the type of education. Distribution of information on occupation prospects is effective to influence their choice of education. Moreover, it is important that the education system is sufficiently flexible to absorb unexpected shocks in skill needs of employees. Policies stimulating education targeted at government-assigned sectors are risky policies. Intensification of general education at the cost of specific education, and intensification of training of employees find little support.

The effect of childhood conduct disorder on human capital

This paper estimates the longer-term effects of childhood conduct disorder on human capital accumulation and violent and criminal behaviour later in life using data of Australian twins. We measure conduct disorder with a rich set of indicators based on diagnostic criteria from psychiatry (e.g., aggression to people and animals, destruction of property, deceitfulness or theft, and/or serious violations of rules). Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and twin fixed effects (FE) estimation approaches, we find that early (pre-18) conduct disorder problems significantly affect both human capital accumulation and violent and criminal behaviour over the life course. For instance, within pairs of identical twins we find that conduct disorder reduces the probability of high school graduation with 4 to 13 percent points and increases the probability of being arrested with 7 to 16 percent points. Robustness checks suggest that these estimates may be lower bounds of the true effects of conduct disorder. In addition, we find that conduct disorder is more deleterious if these behaviours occur earlier in life. We conclude that childhood mental health problems have high human and financial costs for families and society at large. Effective treatments early in life might yield high returns.

Did the 2006 covenants reduce school dropout in the Netherlands?

Early school-leaving is considered to be one of the major problems in Dutch education. In order to reduce the number of dropouts in the school year 2006-2007 the Dutch government has offered a financial incentive scheme to 14 out of 39 regions. This scheme provides a reward of 2000 euro per school dropout less in 2006-07. The target of the scheme was a reduction of the total number of school dropouts by at least 10 percent in one year. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of this school dropout policy by comparing the change in school dropout in these 14 regions with the change in the remaining 25 regions before and after the introduction of the policy. We observe a modest decline in the probability of dropping out in the 14 covenants regions. However, the decline in the non-covenant regions was equally large. We therefore find no significant effect on the probability of dropping out in the post-covenant year. In both regions, the number of dropouts has fallen by 3 percent in the year after the covenants. This nationwide decline can be largely assigned to changes in the student populations among the pre- and post-covenant year. The covenants also gave a reward to regions for a successful reintegration of dropouts in order to reduce school dropout in that way. However, estimates for the effect on the re-enrolment of previous dropouts are statistically insignificant as well. We conclude that 2006 covenant policy has not been effective in reducing early school-leaving.

The Effect of Extra Funding for Disadvantaged Pupils on Achievement

This paper evaluates the effects of two subsidies targeted at disadvantaged pupils in the Netherlands. The first scheme gives primary schools with at least 70 percent minority pupils extra funding for personnel. The second scheme gives primary schools with at least 70 percent pupils from different disadvantaged groups extra funding for computers and software. The cutoffs at 70 percent provide a regression discontinuity design which we exploit in a local difference-in-differences framework. For both subsidies we find negative point estimates. For the personnel subsidy these are in most cases not significantly different from zero. For the computer subsidy we find more evidence of negative effects. We discuss several explanations for these counterintuitive results.policy evaluation; disadvantaged students; computers; teachers; regression discontinuity