Notes on Applying Real Options to Climate Change Adaptation Measures, with examples from Vietnam

A factor common to all adaptation measures is the uncertainty that is the hallmark of climate change. The timing, intensity and location of climate change impacts is not known to any degree of precision. Because most deterministic analyses and policy prescriptions ignore this uncertainty, their recommendations are likely to waste community resources. Except by chance, adaptation measures will either be over-engineered, or they will be inadequate and result in harm. Applying real options thinking allows an incremental and flexible approach. Adaptation measures are implemented only as better knowledge becomes available over time. Several examples are given of real options in the Mekong Delta, with a comparison of net present values of two housing alternatives. It is essential to undertake net present value calculations when comparing different projects to ensure that the value of any options is weighed against other costs and benefits.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Getting real about adapting to climate change: using 'real options' to address the uncertainties

Scientists predict that some climate change is already inevitable, even if greenhouse emissions are stabilised. Adaptation strategies will be of comparable importance to reducing emissions. However, the specific effects of climate change are currently unknowable, especially at the local level. Given this uncertainty, deterministic adaptation strategies are inappropriate. Rather than building ‘worst-case scenario’ sea walls, for example, strong foundations can be laid — so that walls can be built (or not built) in future to match actual climatic conditions without incurring unnecessary upfront expense. Other examples of such ‘real options’ are provided to illustrate the feasibility of the approach

Adaptor of last resort? An economic perspective on the government’s role in adaptation to climate change

Abstract Individuals and societies have always adapted to change, whether catastrophic or slow onset. Over the last two centuries, however, governments have significantly extended their role as ultimate social manager of risk.  It is as yet unclear whether, how, or to what extent governments will add adaptation to climate change to their portfolio of responsibilities.  This report investigates this question on the basis of review and analysis of economic and policy thinking on the issues, and by using a new dataset on the 2011 Brisbane flood. Uncertainties about the future impacts of climate change obviate definitive conclusions about future adaptation actions and insights for specific situations cannot be generalised.  Economic precepts suggest that governments should limit intervention to cases of genuine market failure, such as the provision of information on likely impacts of climate change including at the local level, or to support for people affected by uninsurable events.  But any role as ‘insurer of last resort’ needs to be circumscribed by rigorous social cost-benefit analysis to ensure that government intervention is beneficial, in the context of the need to adapt to climatic changes.  Although the phenomenon of ‘government failure’ is generally ignored in the adaptation literature (and often by policy makers), it too can stymie efficient adaptation.  A standard justification for government intervention is market failure, including misperception of risk by individuals and businesses.  We use Brisbane property prices before and after the January 2011 flood, as well as property-level flood risk information to test the hypothesis that buyers do not accurately perceive the risk of riverine flooding.  The results indicate that buyers do take risk into account, and even discriminate between zones of differing flood risk.  The concepts of ‘government as insurer of last resort’ and ‘government as insurer of first resort’ as alternative forms of intervention in markets are examined with a view to disambiguation.  In contrast to much current thinking in academic and government circles, we conclude that the government should not act as an ‘adaptor of first or last resort’.  Rather, government can best contribute to efficient adaptation by reducing the economic costs and institutional barriers to adaptation faced by individuals and organisations.Comprehensive micro-economic reform, and the promotion of institutional flexibility are potential ‘no regrets’ strategies because they will also promote economic growth and welfare.Please cite as: Dobes, L, Jotzo, F, Doupé, P 2013 Adaptor of last resort? An economic perspective on the Government’s role in adaptation to climate change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 81.Individuals and societies have always adapted to change, whether catastrophic or slow onset. Over the last two centuries, however, governments have significantly extended their role as ultimate social manager of risk.  It is as yet unclear whether, how, or to what extent governments will add adaptation to climate change to their portfolio of responsibilities.  This report investigates this question on the basis of review and analysis of economic and policy thinking on the issues, and by using a new dataset on the 2011 Brisbane flood. Uncertainties about the future impacts of climate change obviate definitive conclusions about future adaptation actions and insights for specific situations cannot be generalised.  Economic precepts suggest that governments should limit intervention to cases of genuine market failure, such as the provision of information on likely impacts of climate change including at the local level, or to support for people affected by uninsurable events.  But any role as ‘insurer of last resort’ needs to be circumscribed by rigorous social cost-benefit analysis to ensure that government intervention is beneficial, in the context of the need to adapt to climatic changes.  Although the phenomenon of ‘government failure’ is generally ignored in the adaptation literature (and often by policy makers), it too can stymie efficient adaptation.  A standard justification for government intervention is market failure, including misperception of risk by individuals and businesses.  We use Brisbane property prices before and after the January 2011 flood, as well as property-level flood risk information to test the hypothesis that buyers do not accurately perceive the risk of riverine flooding.  The results indicate that buyers do take risk into account, and even discriminate between zones of differing flood risk.  The concepts of ‘government as insurer of last resort’ and ‘government as insurer of first resort’ as alternative forms of intervention in markets are examined with a view to disambiguation.  In contrast to much current thinking in academic and government circles, we conclude that the government should not act as an ‘adaptor of first or last resort’. Rather, government can best contribute to efficient adaptation by reducing the economic costs and institutional barriers to adaptation faced by individuals and organisations.Comprehensive micro-economic reform, and the promotion of institutional flexibility are potential ‘no regrets’ strategies because they will also promote economic growth and welfare.Please cite as: Dobes, L, Jotzo, F, Doupé, P 2013 Adaptor of last resort? An economic perspective on the Government’s role in adaptation to climate change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 81.&nbsp

Aspectos da não adesão de idosos à campanha de vanição da gripe no Bairro Górrego Grande,Florianópolis

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Curso de Medicina. Departamento de Saúde Pública

Thermodynamic Analogy for Structural Phase Transitions

We investigate the relationship between ground-state (zero-temperature) quantum phase transitions in systems with variable Hamiltonian parameters and classical (temperature-driven) phase transitions in standard thermodynamics. An analogy is found between (i) phase-transitional distributions of the ground-state related branch points of quantum Hamiltonians in the complex parameter plane and (ii) distributions of zeros of classical partition functions in complex temperatures. Our approach properly describes the first- and second-order quantum phase transitions in the interacting boson model and can be generalized to finite temperatures.Comment: to be published by AIP in Proc. of the Workshop "Nuclei and Mesoscopic Physics" (Michigan State Univ., Oct 2004); 10 pages, 3 figure

Common LISP as Simulation Program (CLASP) of Electronic Circuits

In this paper, an unusual and efficient usage of functional programming language Common LISP as simulation program (CLASP) for electronic circuits is proposed. The principle of automatic self-modifying program has enabled complete freedom in definition of methods for optimized solution of any problem and speeding up the entire process of simulation. A new approach to program structure in electronic circuit simulator CLASP is described. The definition of simple electronic devices as resistor, voltage source and diode is given all together with description of their memory management in program CLASP. Other circuit elements can be easily defined in the same way. Simulation methods for electronic circuits as linear and nonlinear direct current analysis (DC) are suggested. A comparison of performances of two different linear solvers (an original and the standard GNU GSL) for circuit equations is demonstrated by an algorithm for automatic generation of huge circuits

Enhancing the Accuracy of Microwave Element Models by Artificial Neural Networks

In the recent PSpice programs, five types of the GaAs FET model have been implemented. However, some of them are too sophisticated and therefore very difficult to measure and identify afterwards, especially the realistic model of Parker and Skellern. In the paper, simple enhancements of one of the classical models are proposed first. The resulting modification is usable for the accurate modeling of both GaAs FETs and pHEMTs. Moreover, its updated capacitance function can serve as an accurate representation of microwave varactors, which is also important. The precision of the updated models can be strongly enhanced using the artificial neural networks. In the paper, both using an exclusive neural network without an analytic model and cooperating a corrective neural network with the updated analytic model will be discussed. The accuracy of the analytic models, the models based on the exclusive neural network, and the models created as a combination of the updated analytic model and the corrective neural network will be compared

An Efficient Procedure for the Time-Domain Sensitivity Analysis

Standard tools for CAD have limited modes of the sensitivity analysis: PSPICE only contains a static mode and SPECTRE includes frequency-domain and static modes. However, many RF systems use symmetrical structures for enhancing the circuit properties. For such systems, the static sensitivities are zero on principle and hence the time-domain sensitivity analysis should be used. In the paper, a novel recurrent formula for the time/domain sensitivity analysis is derived which uses by-products of an efficient implicit integration algorithm. As the selected integration algorithm is more flexible than the Gear's one that is ordinary used, the sensitivity analysis is more efficient in comparison with the standard CAD tools. An implementation of the method is demonstrated using the analysis of a low-voltage four-quadrant RF multiplier. Nonstandard temperature sensitivity analyses are also tested in the static and dynamic modes

Using Volterra Series for an Estimation of Fundamental Intermodulation Products

The most precise procedure for determining the intermodulation products is to find a steady-state period of the signal first, and then to calculate its spectrum by means of the fast Fourier transform. However, this method needs time-consuming numerical integration over many periods of the faster signal even for enhanced methods for finding the steady state. In the paper, an efficient method for fast estimation of the fundamental intermodulation products is presented. The method uses Volterra series in a simple multistep algorithm which is compatible with a typical structure of the frequency-domain part of circuit simulators. The method is demonstrated by an illustrative testing circuit first, which clearly shows possible incorrect interpretation of the Volterra series. Thereafter, practical usage of the algorithm is demonstrated by fast estimation of the main intermodulation products of a low-voltage low-power RF CMOS fourquadrant multiplier