Estimating rainfall and water balance over the Okavango River Basin for hydrological applications

A historical database for use in rainfall-runoff modeling of the Okavango River Basin in Southwest Africa is presented. The work has relevance for similar data-sparse regions. The parameters of main concern are rainfall and catchment water balance which are key variables for subsequent studies of the hydrological impacts of development and climate change. Rainfall estimates are based on a combination of in-situ gauges and satellite sources. Rain gauge measurements are most extensive from 1955 to 1972, after which they are drastically reduced due to the Angolan civil war. The sensitivity of the rainfall fields to spatial interpolation techniques and the density of gauges was evaluated. Satellite based rainfall estimates for the basin are developed for the period from 1991 onwards, based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data sets. The consistency between the gauges and satellite estimates was considered. A methodology was developed to allow calibration of the rainfall-runoff hydrological model against rain gauge data from 1960-1972, with the prerequisite that the model should be driven by satellite derived rainfall products for the 1990s onwards. With the rain gauge data, addition of a single rainfall station (Longa) in regions where stations earlier were lacking was more important than the chosen interpolation method. Comparison of satellite and gauge rainfall outside the basin indicated that the satellite overestimates rainfall by 20%. A non-linear correction was derived used by fitting the rainfall frequency characteristics to those of the historical rainfall data. This satellite rainfall dataset was found satisfactory when using the Pitman rainfall-runoff model (Hughes et al., this issue). Intensive monitoring in the region is recommended to increase accuracy of the comprehensive satellite rainfall estimate calibration procedur

Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources

Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836–38, 1861–63, 1865–66, 1868–70, 1876–79, 1883–85, 1886–90 and 1895–1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847–49, 1854–57, 1863–65, 1879–81, 1890–91 and 1892–94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our results indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in southeast Africa was relatively stable, at least for the latter half of the 19th century. El Niño conditions appear to have had a more consistent modulating effect upon rainfall during the 19th century than La Niña. The rainfall chronology from this study is combined with other annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from mainland southern Africa and surrounding oceans as part of a multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction for the SRZ. This reconstruction confirms (i) the long-term importance of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs for modulating regional rainfall; and (ii) that summer precipitation has been declining progressively over the last 200 years

Atrial arrhythmogenicity of KCNJ2 mutations in short QT syndrome: Insights from virtual human atria

Gain-of-function mutations in KCNJ2-encoded Kir2.1 channels underlie variant 3 (SQT3) of the short QT syndrome, which is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using biophysically-detailed human atria computer models, this study investigated the mechanistic link between SQT3 mutations and atrial arrhythmogenesis, and potential ion channel targets for treatment of SQT3. A contemporary model of the human atrial action potential (AP) was modified to recapitulate functional changes in IK1 due to heterozygous and homozygous forms of the D172N and E299V Kir2.1 mutations. Wild-type (WT) and mutant formulations were incorporated into multi-scale homogeneous and heterogeneous tissue models. Effects of mutations on AP duration (APD), conduction velocity (CV), effective refractory period (ERP), tissue excitation threshold and their rate-dependence, as well as the wavelength of re-entry (WL) were quantified. The D172N and E299V Kir2.1 mutations produced distinct effects on IK1 and APD shortening. Both mutations decreased WL for re-entry through a reduction in ERP and CV. Stability of re-entrant excitation waves in 2D and 3D tissue models was mediated by changes to tissue excitability and dispersion of APD in mutation conditions. Combined block of IK1 and IKr was effective in terminating re-entry associated with heterozygous D172N conditions, whereas IKr block alone may be a safer alternative for the E299V mutation. Combined inhibition of IKr and IKur produced a synergistic anti-arrhythmic effect in both forms of SQT3. In conclusion, this study provides mechanistic insights into atrial proarrhythmia with SQT3 Kir2.1 mutations and highlights possible pharmacological strategies for management of SQT3-linked AF

Measurements of the pp → ZZ production cross section and the Z → 4ℓ branching fraction, and constraints on anomalous triple gauge couplings at √s = 13 TeV

Four-lepton production in proton-proton collisions, pp -> (Z/gamma*)(Z/gamma*) -> 4l, where l = e or mu, is studied at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The ZZ production cross section, sigma(pp -> ZZ) = 17.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.7 (syst) +/- 0.4 (theo) +/- 0.4 (lumi) pb, measured using events with two opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs produced in the mass region 60 4l) = 4.83(-0.22)(+0.23) (stat)(-0.29)(+0.32) (syst) +/- 0.08 (theo) +/- 0.12(lumi) x 10(-6) for events with a four-lepton invariant mass in the range 80 4GeV for all opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs. The results agree with standard model predictions. The invariant mass distribution of the four-lepton system is used to set limits on anomalous ZZZ and ZZ. couplings at 95% confidence level: -0.0012 < f(4)(Z) < 0.0010, -0.0010 < f(5)(Z) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(4)(gamma) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(5)(gamma) < 0.0013

“The Stones Would Cry Out” (Luke 19.40): A Lukan Contribution to a Hermeneutics of Creation’s Praise

publication-status: Publishedtypes: Article© 2011 by Cambridge University Press. Publisher's version.Beginning from Richard Bauckham's proposal that the biblical theme of creation's praise is of considerable importance for an ecological spirituality, this article takes a close look at Luke 19:40, a text largely ignored in ecological readings of the Bible. An examination of Luke's distinctive account of the entry into Jerusalem and a consideration of the relevant Jewish parallels to the motif of the crying stone leads to a view of the stones’ cry as one of both praise and protest. The ecotheological potential of this text is then discussed and, in contrast to Bauckham's view of creation's praise as something creation always and already does simply by being itself, an eschatological view of creation's praise – and the combined expression of praise and protest – is presented as important, not least for its ecotheological and ethical potential.AHRCResearch project: Uses of the Bible in Environmental Ethic

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

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Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multi-national data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution—individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar was found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-negligible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.Peer reviewe