Major players of the international food trade and the world food security

Depuis 2008, les flambées des prix sur les marchés internationaux de produits alimentaires et la crainte d'une crise alimentaire mondiale ont attiré l'attention sur la relation entre les politiques agricoles et commerciales des grands pays agricoles et la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. Cette attention illustre l'idée largement répandue selon laquelle il existe quelques grands pays qui sont les acteurs dominants des marchés internationaux et qui seraient en position d'influencer, par leur politique, la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. L'objectif de notre papier est de discuter cette hypothèse. Il montre qu'effectivement, par la passé les Etats Unis, d'abord seul puis conjointement avec l'Union Européenne, ont pu contrôler les prix sur les marchés internationaux mais qu'il y a eu, au cours de la dernière décennie, multiplication du nombre de grands pays importateurs et/ou exportateurs. Ainsi aujourd'hui, plusieurs pays sont en situation d'influencer les prix internationaux mais aucun d'entre eux ne peut, ni ne veut, les contrôler. Le papier montre par ailleurs, que si les grands pays influent grandement et intentionnellement sur la sécurité alimentaire de leur propre population (qui compte pour presque la moitié des individus en insécurité alimentaire de la planète), leur influence sur la sécurité alimentaire du reste du monde est limitée par le faible degré d'intégration des marchés domestiques avec les marchés internationaux dans la plupart des pays en insécurité alimentaire. (Résumé d'auteur

Trade policies and agricultural exports of Sub-Saharan African countries: Some stylized facts and perspectives

It has long been consensual that limited market demand within poor African countries have hampered economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa and that countries therefore needed to rely on exports markets to spur economic growth. But despite benefiting from preferential agreements, Sub-Saharan African countries have been marginalized from global trade. Indicators of the exports of Sub-Saharan African countries are constructed to reflect their characteristics. Existing trade negotiating options are examined in the current context of agricultural markets. It appears that prospects at the regional level arise as well as at the global level, especially when looking at the opportunities from a policy coherence for development perspective. Regional prospects are even more acute in light of the global economic crisis affecting traditional trade partners

Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor

The reduction of the existing global distortions to agricultural incentives is sometimes stated as a priority to fight poverty worldwide. But the impacts of global trade policy and domestic development policy reforms are rarely, if ever, compared. Despite technical limitations hindering rigorous comparison of the overall growth effects, also hampering cost-benefit analysis, this paper contributes at filling this gap by focusing on the comparison of the distributional poverty impacts of both types of policies. It uses the MIRAGE global computable general equilibrium –CGE- model feeding a national CGE model representing Malawi in 2007 linked to household survey to examine how different trade policy reforms by Malawi and the rest of the world would impact poverty in Malawi. The country’s recent agricultural growth history due to the Fertilizer Input Subsidy Program is replicated and compared with a more broad-based sectoral approach. The effects of accelerating growth in agriculture and downstream sectors are compared with those of integrating in the regional and multilateral markets. Non preferential trade policy reforms are found to be less favourable for poverty reduction of the poorest than regional integration or preferential integration. Faster intensification and diversification of agriculture is found to enable targeting the poorest that are less likely to be connected to international markets. Therefore, while policy reforms generating growth in general may be good for some poors, it is found that that not all policy reforms are equally good. Thus, despite the fact that trade policies could help fight poverty in Malawi, there are no substitute to development policies, and if undertaken simultaneously, their coherence should be checked thoroughly

Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor

The reduction of the existing global distortions to agricultural incentives is sometimes stated as a priority to fight poverty worldwide. But the impacts of global trade policy and domestic development policy reforms are rarely, if ever, compared. Despite technical limitations hindering rigorous comparison of the overall growth effects, also hampering cost-benefit analysis, this paper contributes at filling this gap by focusing on the comparison of the distributional poverty impacts of both types of policies. It uses the MIRAGE global computable general equilibrium –CGE- model feeding a national CGE model representing Malawi in 2007 linked to household survey to examine how different trade policy reforms by Malawi and the rest of the world would impact poverty in Malawi. The country’s recent agricultural growth history due to the Fertilizer Input Subsidy Program is replicated and compared with a more broad-based sectoral approach. The effects of accelerating growth in agriculture and downstream sectors are compared with those of integrating in the regional and multilateral markets. Non preferential trade policy reforms are found to be less favourable for poverty reduction of the poorest than regional integration or preferential integration. Faster intensification and diversification of agriculture is found to enable targeting the poorest that are less likely to be connected to international markets. Therefore, while policy reforms generating growth in general may be good for some poors, it is found that that not all policy reforms are equally good. Thus, despite the fact that trade policies could help fight poverty in Malawi, there are no substitute to development policies, and if undertaken simultaneously, their coherence should be checked thoroughly

Trade policies and agricultural exports of Sub-Saharan African countries: Some stylized facts and perspectives

It has long been consensual that limited market demand within poor African countries have hampered economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa and that countries therefore needed to rely on exports markets to spur economic growth. But despite benefiting from preferential agreements, Sub-Saharan African countries have been marginalized from global trade. Indicators of the exports of Sub-Saharan African countries are constructed to reflect their characteristics. Existing trade negotiating options are examined in the current context of agricultural markets. It appears that prospects at the regional level arise as well as at the global level, especially when looking at the opportunities from a policy coherence for development perspective. Regional prospects are even more acute in light of the global economic crisis affecting traditional trade partners

Les initiatives citoyennes et leur changement d'échelle

Source Agritrop Cirad (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/599711/)International audienc

Which trade integration scheme can best help Sub-Saharan Africa develop and export more processed agricultural goods?

Trade integration of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries’ agriculture is pointed out as a powerful driver of agricultural growth, especially if it increases processing of agricultural products. But there is no consensus on which negotiations for increased trade integration to put first. Static effects of regional and multilateral tariff reduction shocks are simulated with the Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium computable general equilibrium model in order to compare them and test their coherence with the objective of enhanced value-added in agriculture. A new method is tested to treat existing data issues in the GTAP 7 database that usually lead to overestimations of gains from some trade integration.Non-PRIFPRI1MTI

Trade and agricultural policies in Malawi: Not all policy reform is equally good for the poor

The reduction of the existing global distortions to agricultural incentives is sometimes stated as a priority to fight poverty worldwide. But the impacts of global trade policy and domestic development policy reforms are rarely, if ever, compared. Despite technical limitations hindering rigorous comparison of the overall growth effects, also hampering cost-benefit analysis, this study contributes at filling this gap by focusing on the comparison of the distributional poverty impacts of both types of policies. It uses the MIRAGE global computable general equilibrium –CGE- model feeding a national CGE model representing Malawi in 2007 linked to household survey to examine how different trade policy reforms by Malawi and the rest of the world would impact poverty in Malawi. The country’s recent agricultural growth history due to the Fertilizer Input Subsidy Program is replicated and compared with a more broad-based sectoral approach. The effects of accelerating growth in agriculture and downstream sectors are compared with those of integrating in the regional and multilateral markets. Non preferential trade policy reforms are found to be less favourable for poverty reduction of the poorest than regional integration or preferential integration. Faster intensification and diversification of agriculture is found to enable targeting the poorest that are less likely to be connected to international markets. Therefore, while policy reforms generating growth in general may be good for some poors, it is found that that not all policy reforms are equally good. Thus, despite the fact that trade policies could help fight poverty in Malawi, there are no substitute to development policies, and if undertaken simultaneously, their coherence should be checked thoroughly

Politiques commerciales et agriculture en Afrique Sub-Saharienne : analyse comparative en Equilibre Général Calculable

This dissertation aims at contributing to the comparative analysis of trade and agricultural policies in Sub-Saharan Africa from a policy coherence for development point of view. The framework is established by reviewing the policies historically implemented in the region, linking them to the history of economic thought. The debates on the role of agriculture for development and on the use of public intervention and trade policies to promote development strategies are explored justifying the need to prioritize potential policy reforms based on their impacts on agriculture and economic growth, and the choice of computable general equilibrium modeling. Chapter I highlights the main challenges and opportunities for Sub-Saharan African agricultural trade stemming from the changes in the global agricultural markets and the trade agreements currently negotiated. Chapter II and III show that global computable general equilibrium provides a useful tool to compare regional integration to multilateral integration, in terms of their impacts on gross domestic product, welfare and sectoral growth distribution. Chapter III is a case study on Malawi. The global model is linked to a national model including household data to compare the distributional impacts of trade policies and agricultural policies on poverty. This dissertation highlights that regional integration could bring substantial economic gains to Sub-Saharan Africa, together with more diversified and more processed agricultural exports than multilateral integration. Not all policy reform is found to equally reduce the poverty of the small-scale farmers, the majority of the poors and vulnerable in Sub-Saharan Africa.Cette thèse procède à une analyse comparative des politiques commerciales et agricoles en Afrique sub-saharienne, en se concentrant sur la cohérence des politiques pour le développement. Elle examine les politiques mises en œuvre historiquement dans la région, en les reliant à l'histoire de la pensée économique, et explore les débats sur le rôle de l'agriculture, des politiques commerciales et du recours à l'intervention publique dans les stratégies de développement. Le chapitre I analyse les principaux défis et opportunités pour le commerce agricole de l'Afrique sub-saharienne au vu de l'évolution des marchés agricoles mondiaux et des accords commerciaux en cours de négociation. Les chapitres II et III montrent l'utilité des modèles d'équilibre général calculable mondial pour comparer intégration régionale et intégration multilatérale, en considérant l' impact de ces stratégies sur le produit intérieur brut, le bien-être et la distribution sectorielle de la croissance. Le chapitre III est une étude de cas sur le Malawi. Le modèle global y est lié à un modèle national et à des enquêtes ménages, ce qui permet de comparer les effets distributifs des politiques commerciales et des politiques agricoles sur la pauvreté. Cette thèse démontre que l'intégration régionale peut apporter des gains économiques substantiels à l'Afrique sub-saharienne et promouvoir des exportations agricoles plus diversifiées et à des stades de transformation plus avancés que l'intégration multilatérale ; et que seules certaines réformes politiques permettent de réduire la pauvreté des petits agriculteurs, qui constituent la majorité des personnes pauvres et vulnérables en Afrique sub-saharienne