GPS source solution of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data processing results from early post-seismic deformation. We also show 1) that if located very close to the rupture, a GPS receiver can saturate while it remains possible to estimate the ground velocity (~1.2 m/s) near the fault, 2) that GPS waveforms inversions constrain that the slip distribution at depth even when GPS monuments are not located directly above the ruptured areas and 3) the slip distribution at depth from our best models agree with that recovered from strong motion data. The 95th percentile of the slip amplitudes for rupture velocities ranging from 2 to 5 km/s is, 55 +/- 6 cm.Comment: 24 pages including supp. material

Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys

Survey-based indicators such as the consumer confidence are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity, especially for the future path of private consumption. Although they receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power appears to be very limited. Therefore, this paper takes a fresh look on the survey data, which serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) reported by the EU Commission for the euro area and individual member states. Different pooling methods are considered to exploit the information embedded in the consumer survey. Quantitative forecasts are based on Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) and bridge equations. While the CCI does not outperform an autoregressive benchmark for the majority of countries, the new indicators increase the forecasting performance. The gains over the CCI are striking for Italy and the entire euro area (20 percent). For Germany and France the gains seem to be lower, but are nevertheless substantial (10 to 15 percent). The best performing indicator should be built upon pre-selection methods, while data-driven aggregation methods should be preferred to determine the weights of the individual ingredients.Consumer confidence, consumption, nowcasting, mixed frequency data

Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System

Excessive speculation on asset markets can cause significant macroeconomic losses in terms of production and employment. Such developments should be detected as early and as reliably as possible in order to enable corrective action through adequate economic policy measures. This is the goal of the early warning system, which was developed by DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance for the housing market. The early warning system predicts price surges on real estate market that were caused by speculation. If speculative price developments are detected quickly, economic policy has enough leeway to find an adequate response and possibly prevent further development of the bubble.House prices, early warning system, price bubbles

An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one that provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, we suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signalling approach, logit and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of the house price bubbles than the signalling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, our method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to timely detect the house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.House prices, early warning system, OECD countries

Real estate booms and price bubbles: What can Germany learn from other countries?

When speculative price bubbles on real estate markets burst, the effects for the real economy are often devastating taking the form of substantial losses in production and employment. This paper discusses the degree to which institutional frameworks can prevent speculative bubbles from emerging and expanding. Comparing experiences in different countries indicates that, in Germany, institutional regulations are more likely to counteract the risk of undesirable developments. Despite the recent substantial price increases, no speculative bubble can be identified in Germany so far-but the risk has increased. In times of the euro area debt crisis, real estate is regarded as a safe investment, which boosts demand. And although a reintroduction of the former subsidy for owner-occupied home purchases would create new housing space, it could also lead to price hikes in the property market. A particular problem is the banks' recent tendency to grant mortgages to households on the basis of lower and lower equity capital

Common and Spatial Drivers in Regional Business Cycles

We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model with spatial correlation indicate that the relevance of common business cycle factors is rather stable over the past two decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business cycle convergence often detected in a country data is not confirmed at the regional level. The degree of synchronization across the euro area is similar to that to be found for the US states. Thus, the lack of convergence does not seem to be an impediment to a common monetary policy.Business cycle convergence, spatial correlation, spatial panel model

Spekulative Preisentwicklung an den Immobilienmärkten: Elemente eines Frühwarnsystems

Von spekulativen Übertreibungen an den Vermögensmärkten können erhebliche makroökonomische Verluste für Produktion und Beschäftigung ausgehen. Solche Entwicklungen sollten möglichst frühzeitig und verlässlich erkannt werden, um eine Gegensteuerung durch entsprechende wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen zu ermöglichen. Diesem Ziel dient das Frühwarnsystem, welches das DIW Berlin im Auftrag des Bundesfinanzministeriums für den Immobilienmarkt entwickelt hat. Dieses Frühwarnsystem diagnostiziert spekulativ bedingte Preissprünge auf den Immobilienmärkten. Werden spekulative Preisbewegungen frühzeitig erkannt, bleiben der Wirtschaftspolitik Spielräume, um angemessen auf die Entwicklung zu reagieren und unter Umständen eine weitere Aufblähung der Blasen zu verhindern.House prices, early warning system, price bubbles

Preiskonvergenz in der erweiterten Europäischen Union

Die fortschreitende europäische Integration führt tendenziell zu einer Annäherung der Preise von Gütern und Dienstleistungen. Mit der Erweiterung der EU hat sich dieser Prozess etwas beschleunigt. Der Beitritt der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder beeinflusst die Preiskonvergenz auf zweierlei Weise. Zum einen erhöht sich in der EU insgesamt der Druck auf die Preise aufgrund des intensiveren Wettbewerbs. Zum anderen steigt das bisher noch relativ niedrige Preisniveau in den neuen Mitgliedsländern im Zuge des wirtschaftlichen Aufholprozesses.EU enlargement, Price convergence, Balassa Samuelson effect

Regionale Konjunkturunterschiede kein Hinderungsgrund für Geldpolitik im Euroraum

Von Kritikern der Europäischen Währungsunion wird oft behauptet, die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den einzelnen Regionen sei zu unterschiedlich, als dass eine einheitliche Geldpolitik effizient sein könne. Wie berechtigt solche Befürchtungen sind, lässt sich durch einen Vergleich des Euroraums mit einer schon seit langem funktionierende Währungsunion - den USA - prüfen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Unterschiede in der konjunkturellen Entwicklung zwischen den Regionen der Eurozone nicht größer sind als zwischen den Bundesstaaten der USA. Somit sind die Erfolgsaussichten der Geldpolitik im Euroraum keineswegs schlechter als in den USA

An early warning system to predict the house price bubbles

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one that provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, we suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signalling approach, logit and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of the house price bubbles than the signalling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in housing market. Thus, our method can be used by the policymakers in their attempts to timely detect the house price bubbles and attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy