Spatial clusters of gonorrhoea in England with particular reference to the outcome of partner notification: 2012 and 2013

Background: This study explored spatial-temporal variation in diagnoses of gonorrhoea to identify and quantify endemic areas and clusters in relation to patient characteristics and outcomes of partner notification (PN) across England, UK. Methods: Endemic areas and clusters were identified using a two-stage analysis with Kulldorff’s scan statistics (SaTScan). Results Of 2,571,838 tests, 53,547 diagnoses were gonorrhoea positive (positivity = 2.08%). The proportion of diagnoses in heterosexual males was 1.5 times that in heterosexual females. Among index cases, men who have sex with men (MSM) were 8 times more likely to be diagnosed with gonorrhoea than heterosexual males (p<0.0001). After controlling for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation rank, 4 endemic areas were identified including 11,047 diagnoses, 86% of which occurred in London. 33 clusters included 17,629 diagnoses (34% of total diagnoses in 2012 and 2013) and spanned 21 locations, some of which were dominated by heterosexually acquired infection, whilst others were MSM focused. Of the 53,547 diagnoses, 14.5% (7,775) were the result of PN. The proportion of patients who attended services as a result of PN varied from 0% to 61% within different age, gender and sexual orientation cohorts. A third of tests resulting from PN were positive for gonorrhoea. 25% of Local Authorities (n = 81, 95% CI: 20.2, 29.5) had a higher than expected proportion for female PN diagnoses as compared to 16% for males (n = 52, 95% CI: 12.0, 19.9). Conclusions: The English gonorrhoea epidemic is characterised by spatial-temporal variation. PN success varied between endemic areas and clusters. Greater emphasis should be placed on the role of PN in the control of gonorrhoea to reduce the risk of onward transmission, re-infection, and complications of infection

Fireside corrosion degradation of ferritic alloys at 600°C in oxy-fired conditions

This paper reports the results of a study carried out to investigate the effects of simulated coal/biomass combustion conditions on the fireside corrosion. The 1000 h deposit recoat exposure (5 × 200 h cycles) was carried out at 600 °C. In these tests ferritic alloys were used 15Mo3, T22, T23 and T91. Kinetics data were generated for the alloys exposed using both traditional weight change methods and metal loss measurements. The highest rate of corrosion based on EDX results occurred under D1 deposit where provoke mainly by the formation of alkali iron tri-sulphate phase

Smart overlay coatings - concept and practice

Smart overlay coatings are a functionally gradient coating system designed to provide high temperature corrosion protection over a wide range of operating conditions. The SMARTCOAT design consists of a MCrAlY base, enriched first in chromium, then aluminium to provide a chemically graded structure. At elevated temperatures, above 900°C (1650°F), the coating oxidises to form a protective alumina scale. However, at lower temperatures this alumina scale does not reform rapidly enough to confer protection under type II hot corrosion conditions. The coating is therefore designed with an intermediate chromium-rich interlayer, which permits the rapid formation of chromia healing areas of type II corrosion damage. Laboratory and burner rig tests have been carried out on a series of developmental smart overlay coatings. These have shown that the development of an intermediate chromium-rich phase provides protection under low temperature hot corrosion conditions, while the aluminium-rich surface layer provides resistance to high temperature oxidation and type I hot corrosion. Thus, the single application of SMARTCOAT permits operation over a broad range of industrial and marine turbine conditio

Morphology and biomechanics of the nests of the Common Blackbird Turdus merula

Capsule Common blackbirds select different materials, with varying biomechanical properties, to construct different parts of their nest. Aims This study tested the hypothesis that outer components of a nest have a more structural role and so are stronger than materials used to line the cup. Methods Blackbird nests were measured prior to being dismantled to isolate structural components which were tested for mechanical strength and rigidity. Results Outer nest wall materials were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials in the inner structural wall or the cup lining. In the vertical plane materials used in the structural wall did not differ. By contrast, lining materials from the bottom of the nest cup were significantly thicker, stronger and more rigid than materials from the top of the cup. Conclusion Blackbirds use different materials in nest construction roles suited to their properties and so may be able to recognise the structural properties of these materials. Materials on the outside of the nest may have a key structural role during construction

Threshold Error Penalty for Fault Tolerant Computation with Nearest Neighbour Communication

The error threshold for fault tolerant quantum computation with concatenated encoding of qubits is penalized by internal communication overhead. Many quantum computation proposals rely on nearest-neighbour communication, which requires excess gate operations. For a qubit stripe with a width of L+1 physical qubits implementing L levels of concatenation, we find that the error threshold of 2.1x10^-5 without any communication burden is reduced to 1.2x10^-7 when gate errors are the dominant source of error. This ~175X penalty in error threshold translates to an ~13X penalty in the amplitude and timing of gate operation control pulses.Comment: minor correctio

Banks-Zaks fixed point analysis in momentum subtraction schemes

We analyse the critical exponents relating to the quark mass anomalous dimension and beta-function at the Banks-Zaks fixed point in Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) in a variety of representations for the quark in the momentum subtraction (MOM) schemes of Celmaster and Gonsalves. For a specific range of values of the number of quark flavours, estimates of the exponents appear to be scheme independent. Using the recent five loop modified minimal subtraction (MSbar) scheme quark mass anomalous dimension and estimates of the fixed point location we estimate the associated exponent as 0.263-0.268 for the SU(3) colour group and 12 flavours when the quarks are in the fundamental representation.Comment: 33 latex pages, 25 tables, anc directory contains txt file with electronic version of renormalization group function

Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992–2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the post-storm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (9–12 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and IMF Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation

Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population

Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the south-east of Britain but increasing in the north-west, we show that, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining south-east population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the north-west was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to ≥ 1) in the south-east. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the prediction of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). A path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current (Dst), AE, and wave activity