Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

Safety and efficacy of pegunigalsidase alfa in patients with Fabry disease who were previously treated with agalsidase alfa: results from BRIDGE, a phase 3 open-label study

BACKGROUND: Pegunigalsidase alfa is a novel, PEGylated α-galactosidase-A enzyme-replacement therapy approved in the EU and US to treat patients with Fabry disease (FD). OBJECTIVE/METHODS: BRIDGE is a phase 3 open-label, switch-over study designed to assess safety and efficacy of 12 months of pegunigalsidase alfa (1 mg/kg every 2 weeks) treatment in adults with FD who had been previously treated with agalsidase alfa (0.2 mg/kg every 2 weeks) for ≥ 2 years. RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients were screened; 22 met eligibility criteria; and 20 (13 men, 7 women) completed the study. Pegunigalsidase alfa was well-tolerated, with 97% of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) being of mild or moderate severity. The incidence of treatment-related TEAEs was low, with 2 (9%) discontinuations due to TEAEs. Five patients (23%) reported infusion-related reactions. Overall mean (SD; n = 22) baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 82.5 (23.4) mL/min/1.73 m2 and plasma lyso-Gb3 level was 38.3 (41.2) nmol/L (men: 49.7 [45.8] nmol/L; women: 13.8 [6.1] nmol/L). Before switching to pegunigalsidase alfa, mean (standard error [SE]) annualized eGFR slope was − 5.90 (1.34) mL/min/1.73 m2/year; 12 months post-switch, the mean eGFR slope was − 1.19 (1.77) mL/min/1.73 m2/year; and mean plasma lyso-Gb3 reduced by 31%. Seven (35%) out of 20 patients were positive for pegunigalsidase alfa antidrug antibodies (ADAs) at ≥ 1 study timepoint, two of whom had pre-existing ADAs at baseline. Mean (SE) changes in eGFR slope for ADA-positive and ADA-negative patients were + 5.47 (3.03) and + 4.29 (3.15) mL/min/1.73 m2/year, respectively, suggesting no negative impact of anti-pegunigalsidase alfa ADAs on eGFR slope. CONCLUSION: Pegunigalsidase alfa may offer a safe and effective treatment option for patients with FD, including those previously treated with agalsidase alfa. TRN: NCT03018730. Date of registration: January 2017

Taming Volatile High Frequency Data with Long Lag Structure: An Optimal Filtering Approach for Forecasting

We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data. We compare our approach to different filtering techniques and show that our proposed filter outperforms various commonly used filtering techniques in terms of extracting the more relevant signal of the indicator series for forecasting

In Silico Simulation of Corticosteroids Effect on an NFkB- Dependent Physicochemical Model of Systemic Inflammation

During the onset of an inflammatory response signaling pathways are activated for "translating" extracellular signals into intracellular responses converging to the activation of nuclear factor (NF)-kB, a central transcription factor in driving the inflammatory response. An inadequate control of its transcriptional activity is associated with the culmination of a hyper-inflammatory response making it a desired therapeutic target. Predicated upon the nature of the response, a systems level analysis might provide rational leads for the development of strategies that promote the resolution of the response.A physicochemical host response model is proposed to integrate biological information in the form of kinetic rules and signaling cascades with pharmacokinetic models of drug action for the modulation of the response. The unifying hypothesis is that the response is triggered by the activation of the NFkB signaling module and corticosteroids serve as a template for assessing anti-inflammatory strategies. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to predict and modulate uncontrolled responses. The pre-exposure of the system to hypercortisolemia, i.e. 6 hr before or simultaneously with the infectious challenge "reprograms" the dynamics of the host towards a balanced inflammatory response. However, if such an intervention occurs long before the inflammatory insult a symptomatic effect is observed instead of a protective relief while a steroid infusion after inducing inflammation requires much higher drug doses.We propose a reversed engineered inflammation model that seeks to describe how the system responds to a multitude of external signals. Timing of intervention and dosage regimes appears to be key determinants for the protective or symptomatic effect of exogenous corticosteroids. Such results lie in qualitative agreement with in vivo human studies exposed both to LPS and corticosteroids under various time intervals thus improving our understanding of how interacting modules generate a behavior

Pre-natal and post-natal exposure to respiratory infection and atopic diseases development: a historical cohort study

BACKGROUND: According to the hygiene hypothesis, infections in early life protect from allergic diseases. However, in earlier studies surrogate measures of infection rather than clinical infections were associated with decreased frequencies of atopic diseases. Exposure to infection indicating sub-clinical infection rather than clinical infection might protect from atopic diseases. Objective: to investigate whether exposure to acute respiratory infections within pregnancy and the first year of life is associated with atopic conditions at age 5–14 years and to explore when within pregnancy and the first year of life this exposure is most likely to be protective. METHODS: Historical cohort study: Population level data on acute respiratory infections from the routine reporting system of the former German Democratic Republic were linked with individual data from consecutive surveys on atopic diseases in the same region (n = 4672). Statistical analyses included multivariate logistic regression analysis and polynomial distributed lag models. RESULTS: High exposure to acute respiratory infection between pregnancy and age one year was associated with overall reduced odds of asthma, eczema, hay fever, atopic sensitization and total IgE. Exposure in the first 9 months of life showed the most pronounced effect. Adjusted odds ratio's for asthma, hay fever, inhalant sensitization and total IgE were statistical significantly reduced up to around half. CONCLUSION: Exposure to respiratory infection (most likely indicating sub-clinical infection) within pregnancy and the first year of life may be protective in atopic diseases development. The post-natal period thereby seems to be particularly important

A Plant-Derived Recombinant Human Glucocerebrosidase Enzyme—A Preclinical and Phase I Investigation

Gaucher disease is a progressive lysosomal storage disorder caused by the deficiency of glucocerebrosidase leading to the dysfunction in multiple organ systems. Intravenous enzyme replacement is the accepted standard of treatment. In the current report, we evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics of a novel human recombinant glucocerebrosidase enzyme expressed in transformed plant cells (prGCD), administered to primates and human subjects. Short term (28 days) and long term (9 months) repeated injections with a standard dose of 60 Units/kg and a high dose of 300 Units/kg were administered to monkeys (n = 4/sex/dose). Neither clinical drug-related adverse effects nor neutralizing antibodies were detected in the animals. In a phase I clinical trial, six healthy volunteers were treated by intravenous infusions with escalating single doses of prGCD. Doses of up to 60 Units/kg were administered at weekly intervals. prGCD infusions were very well tolerated. Anti-prGCD antibodies were not detected. The pharmacokinetic profile of the prGCD revealed a prolonged half-life compared to imiglucerase, the commercial enzyme that is manufactured in a costly mammalian cell system. These studies demonstrate the safety and lack of immunogenicity of prGCD. Following these encouraging results, a pivotal phase III clinical trial for prGCD was FDA approved and is currently ongoing.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00258778

Modeling Corticosteroid Effects in a Rat Model of Rheumatoid Arthritis I: Mechanistic Disease Progression Model for the Time Course of Collagen-Induced Arthritis in Lewis Rats

ABSTRACT A mechanism-based model was developed to describe the time course of arthritis progression in the rat. Arthritis was induced in male Lewis rats with type II porcine collagen into the base of the tail. Disease progression was monitored by paw swelling, bone mineral density (BMD), body weights, plasma corticosterone (CST) concentrations, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-␣, interleukin (IL)-1␤, IL-6, and glucocorticoid receptor (GR) mRNA expression in paw tissue. Bone mineral density was determined by PIXImus II dual energy X-ray densitometry. Plasma CST was assayed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Cytokine and GR mRNA were determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Disease progression models were constructed from transduction and indirect response models and applied using S-ADAPT software. A delay in the onset of increased paw TNF-␣ and IL-6 mRNA concentrations was successfully characterized by simple transduction. This rise was closely followed by an up-regulation of GR mRNA and CST concentrations. Paw swelling and body weight responses peaked approximately 21 days after induction, whereas bone mineral density changes were greatest at 23 days after induction. After peak response, the time course in IL-1␤, IL-6 mRNA, and paw edema slowly declined toward a disease steady state. Model parameters indicate TNF-␣ and IL-1␤ mRNA most significantly induce paw edema, whereas IL-6 mRNA exerted the most influence on BMD. The model for bone mineral density captures rates of turnover of cancellous and cortical bone and the fraction of each in the different regions analyzed. This small systems model integrates and quantitates multiple factors contributing to arthritis in rats

Real-Time Forecasting with a MIDAS VAR

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce the parameter space while keeping models flexible. We show how to recast the resulting non-linear MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR into a linear equation system that can be easily estimated. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise with US real-time data yields that the mixed frequency VAR substantially improves predictive accuracy upon a standard VAR for different VAR specififications. Forecast errors for, e.g., GDP growth decrease by 30 to 60 percent for forecast horizons up to six months and by around 20 percent for a forecast horizon of one year