Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications

This paper describes the extent and cyclicality of product creation and destruction in a large sector of the U.S. economy and quantifies its implications for the measurement of consumer prices. We find four times more entry and exit in product markets than is typically found in labor markets because most product turnover happens within the boundaries of the firm. Net product creation is strongly pro-cyclical, but contrary to the behavior of labor flows, it is primarily driven by creation rather than destruction. High rates of innovation are also accompanied by substantial price volatility of products. These facts suggest that the CPI deviates from a true cost-of-living index in three important dimensions. The quality bias that arises as new goods replace outdated ones causes the CPI to overstate inflation by 0.8 percent per year; the cyclicality of the bias implies that business cycles are more volatile than indicated by official statistics; and finally, sampling error is sufficiently large that over the last 10 years policymakers could not statistically distinguish whether quarterly inflation was accelerating or decelerating 65 percent of the time.

Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America

Japanese monetary and fiscal policy uses the consumer price index as a metric for price stability. Despite a major effort to improve the index, the Japanese methodology of calculating the CPI seems to have a large number of deficiencies. Little attention is paid in Japan to substitution biases and quality upgrading. This implies that important methodological differences have emerged between the U.S. and Japan since the U.S. started to correct for these biases in 1999. We estimate that using the new corrected U.S. methodology, Japan's deflation averaged 1.2 percent per year since 1999. This is more than twice the deflation suggested by Japanese national statistics. Ignoring these methodological differences misleading suggests that American real per capita consumption growth has been growing at a rate that is almost 2 percentage points higher than that of Japan between 1999 and 2006. When a common methodology is used Japan's growth has been much closer to that of the U.S. over this period. Moreover, we estimate that the bias of the Japanese CPI relative to a true cost-of-living index is around 2 percent per year. This overstatement in the Japanese CPI in combination with Japan's low inflation rate is likely to cost the government over 69 trillion yen -- or 14 percent of GDP -- over the next 10 years in increased social security expenses and debt service. For monetary policy, the overstatement of inflation suggests that if the BOJ adopts a formal inflation target without changing the current CPI methodology a lower band of less than 2 percent would not achieve its goal of price stability.

Defining Price Stability in Japan: A View from America

Japanese monetary and fiscal policy uses the consumer price index (CPI) as a metric for price stability. Despite a major effort to improve the index, the Japanese methodology of calculating the CPI seems to have a large number of deficiencies. Little attention is paid in Japan to substitution biases and quality upgrading. This implies that important methodological differences have emerged between the United States and Japan since the former started to correct for these biases in 1999. We estimate that using the new corrected U.S. methodology, Japanfs deflation averaged 1.2 percent per year since 1999. This is more than twice the deflation suggested by Japanese national statistics. Ignoring these methodological differences is misleading, because it would suggest that U.S. real per capita consumption growth has been growing at a rate that is almost 2 percentage points higher than that of Japan between 1999 and 2006. When a common methodology is used, Japanfs growth has been much closer to that of the United States over this period. Moreover, we estimate that the bias of the Japanese CPI relative to a true cost-of- living index is around 2 percent per year. This overstatement in the Japanese CPI in combination with Japanfs low inflation rate is likely to cost the government more than \69 trillion?or 14 percent of GDP?over the next 10 years in increased Social Security transfers and debt service. For monetary policy, the overstatement of inflation suggests that if the BOJ adopts a formal inflation target without changing the current CPI methodology, a lower band of less than 1.8 percent would not achieve its goal of price stability.Inflation; Consumer price index bias; Monetary policy

GLOBALIZATION AND THE GAINS FROM VARIETY

Since the seminal work of Krugman (1979), product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United States. In this paper we show that the unmeasured growth in product variety from US imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last three decades (1972-2001). Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased by a factor of four. We also estimate the elasticities of substitution for each available category at the same level of aggregation, and describe their behavior across time and SITC-5 industries. Using these estimates we develop an exact price index and find that the upward bias in the conventional import price index is approximately 1.2 percent per year. The magnitude of this bias suggests that the welfare gains from variety growth in imports alone are 2.8 percent of GDPGains from trade, Love-of-variety models, US Trade, Elasticities of Substitution.

Globalization and the Gains from Variety

Since the seminal work of Krugman (1979), product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United States. In this paper we show that the unmeasured growth in product variety from US imports has been an important source of gains from trade over the last three decades (1972-2001). Using extremely disaggregated data, we show that the number of imported product varieties has increased by a factor of four. We also estimate the elasticities of substitution for each available category at the same level of aggregation, and describe their behavior across time and SITC-5 industries. Using these estimates we develop an exact price index and find that the upward bias in the conventional import price index is approximately 1.2 percent per year. The magnitude of this bias suggests that the welfare gains from variety growth in imports alone are 2.8 percent of GDP.

New data strengthen the connection between Short Range Correlations and the EMC effect

Recently published measurements of the two nucleon short range correlation ($NN$-SRC) scaling factors, $a_2(A/d)$, strengthen the previously observed correlation between the magnitude of the EMC effect measured in electron deep inelastic scattering at $0.35\le x_B\le 0.7$ and the SRC scaling factor measured at $x_B \ge 1$. The new results have improved precision and include previously unmeasured nuclei. The measurements of $a_2(A/d)$ for $^9$Be and $^{197}$Au agree with published predictions based on the EMC-SRC correlation. This paper examines the effects of the new data and of different corrections to the data on the slope and quality of the EMC-SRC correlation, the size of the extracted deuteron IMC effect, and the free neutron structure function. The results show that the linear EMC-SRC correlation is robust and that the slope of the correlation is insensitive to most combinations of corrections examined in this work. This strengthens the interpretation that both $NN$-SRC and the EMC effect are related to high momentum nucleons in the nucleus.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure. v3: minor changes to respond to PRC referee comments. v2: Minor errors in tabulated data corrected. No change to text or conclusion

What Role for Empirics in International Trade?

In the field of international trade, data analysis has traditionally had quite modest influence relative to that of pure theory. At one time, this might have been rationalized by the paucity of empirics in the field or its weak theoretical foundations. In recent years empirical research has begun to provide an increasingly detailed view of the determinants of trade relations. Yet the field as a whole has been slow to incorporate these findings in its fundamental worldview. In this paper, we outline and extend what we view as key robust findings from the empirical literature that should be part of every international economists working knowledge.

Technological Superiority and the Losses from Migration

Two facts motivate this study. (1) The United States is the world's most productive economy. (2) The US is the destination for a broad range of net factor inflows: unskilled labor, skilled labor, and capital. Indeed, these two facts may be strongly related: All factors seek to enter the US because of the US technological superiority. The literature on international factor flows rarely links these two phenomena, instead considering one-at-a-time analyses that stress issues of relative factor abundance. This is unfortunate, since the welfare calculations differ markedly. In a simple Ricardian framework, a country that experiences immigration of factors motivated by technological differences always loses from this migration relative to a free trade baseline, while the other country gains. We provide simple calculations suggesting that the magnitude of the losses for US natives may be quite large $72 billion dollars per year or 0.8 percent of GDP.

Market Size, Linkages, and Productivity: A Study Of Japanese Regions

markets, regions, productivity

Do Endowments Predict the Location of Production? Evidence from National and International Data

Examining the relationship between factor endowments and production patterns using international and Japanese regional data, we provide the first empirical confirmation of Ethier's correlation approach to the Rybczynski theorem. Moreover, we find evidence of substantial production indeterminacy. Prediction errors are six to thirty times larger for goods traded relatively freely. A compelling explanation of this phenomenon is the existence of more goods than factors in the presence of trade costs. This result implies that regressions of trade or output on endowments have weak theoretical foundations. Furthermore, since errors are largest in data sets where trade costs are small, we explain why the common methodology of imputing trade barriers from regression residuals often leads to backwards results.