An artificial neural network-based rainfall runoff model for improved drainage network modelling

This Presentation is brought to you for free and open access by the City College of New York at CUNY Academic Works. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Conference on Hydroinformatics by an authorized administrator of CUNY Academic Works. For more information, please contact [email protected] th International Conference on Hydroinformatics HIC 2014, New York City, USAModelling rainfall-runoff processes enables hydrologists to plan their response to flooding events. Urban drainage catchment modelling requires rainfall-runoff models as a prerequisite. In the UK, one of the main software tools used for drainage modelling is InfoWorks CS, based on relatively simple methods which are relatively robust in predicting runoff. This paper presents an alternative approach to modelling runoff that will allow for the complex inter-relation of runoff that occurs from impermeable areas, permeable areas, local surface storage and variation in rainfall induced infiltration. Apart from the uncertainties associated with the measurement of connected surfaces to the drainage system, the physical processes involved in runoff are nonlinear, making artificial neural networks (ANNs) an ideal candidate for modelling them. ANNs have been used for runoff prediction in natural catchments, and recently on a study for predicting the performance of urban drainage systems. This study seeks to determine an input set that predicts sewerage flow in urban catchments where the runoff is dominated by infiltration, a major issue for the water industry. A framework is proposed in which an ANN is trained by an evolutionary algorithm, which optimises ANN weights; results are assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient. The model is demonstrated on a real-world case study site for which rainfall, flow, air temperature and groundwater levels in three boreholes have been measured. Various combinations of these data are used as model inputs, examining a mixture of daily and sub-daily timesteps. The best predictions are generated from daily linearly combined antecedent rainfall and air temperature, although sub-daily information improves the worst-case performance of the model. Although infiltration is affected by groundwater levels, incorporating groundwater into the model does not improve predictions. The proposed ANN model is capable of producing acceptable predictions, thus avoiding many of the uncertainties involved in traditional infiltration modelling

Spatial audio in small display screen devices

Our work addresses the problem of (visual) clutter in mobile device interfaces. The solution we propose involves the translation of technique-from the graphical to the audio domain-for expliting space in information representation. This article presents an illustrative example in the form of a spatialisedaudio progress bar. In usability tests, participants performed background monitoring tasks significantly more accurately using this spatialised audio (a compared with a conventional visual) progress bar. Moreover, their performance in a simultaneously running, visually demanding foreground task was significantly improved in the eye-free monitoring condition. These results have important implications for the design of multi-tasking interfaces for mobile devices

People with learning disabilities and ‘active ageing’

Background: People (with and without learning disabilities) are living longer. Demographic ageing creates challenges and the leading policy response to these challenges is ‘active ageing’. ‘Active’ does not just refer to the ability to be physically and economically active, but also includes ongoing social and civic engagement in the communities of which older people are a part. Active ageing should apply to all citizens, including the experiences of older people with learning disabilities. Materials and Methods: This literature based paper explores the focus of active ageing discussions in relation to the general population drawing comparisons with the experiences of older people with learning disabilities. Results: It points out that older people with learning disabilities and their experiences are largely missing from broader policy discussions of active ageing. Conclusion: The paper concludes by arguing for inclusive research in active ageing which takes account of the concerns and interests of older people with learning disabilities

The regulation of television sports broadcasting: a comparative analysis

Based on seven different sports broadcasting markets (Australia, Brazil, Italy, India, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States), this article provides a comparative analysis of the regulation of television sports broadcasting. The article examines how contrasting perspectives on television and sport – economic and sociocultural – have been reflected in two main approaches to the regulation of sports broadcasting, namely competition law and major events legislation. The results of this analysis suggest that in many cases, the balance between commerce and culture in sports broadcasting has shifted too far in favour of the commercial interests of dominant pay-TV operators and sports organisations. Here, the case is made for the pursuit of an approach to sports broadcasting regulation that seeks to balance the commercial priorities of broadcasters and sports organisations with the wider sociocultural benefits citizens gain from freeto- air sports broadcasting

A systematic review of randomised controlled trials on the effectiveness of exercise programs on lumbo pelvic pain among postnatal women

Background: A substantial number of women tend to be affected by Lumbo Pelvic Pain (LPP) following child birth. Physical exercise is indicated as a beneficial method to relieve LPP, but individual studies appear to suggest mixed findings about its effectiveness. This systematic review aimed to synthesise evidence from randomised controlled trials on the effectiveness of exercise on LPP among postnatal women to inform policy, practice and future research. Methods: A systematic review was conducted of all randomised controlled trials published between January 1990 and July 2014, identified through a comprehensive search of following databases: PubMed, PEDro, Embase, Cinahl, Medline, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group’s Trials Register, and electronic libraries of authors’institutions. Randomised controlled trials were eligible for inclusion if the intervention comprised of postnatal exercise for women with LPP onset during pregnancy or within 3 months after delivery and the outcome measures included changes in LPP. Selected articles were assessed using the PEDro Scale for methodological quality and findings were synthesised narratively as meta-analysis was found to be inappropriate due to heterogeneity among included studies. Results: Four randomised controlled trials were included, involving 251 postnatal women. Three trials were rated as of ‘good’ methodological quality. All trials, except one, were at low risk of bias. The trials included physical exercise programs with varying components, differing modes of delivery, follow up times and outcome measures. Intervention in one trial, involving physical therapy with specific stabilising exercises, proved to be effective in reducing LPP intensity. An improvement in gluteal pain on the right side was reported in another trial and a significant difference in pain frequency in another. Conclusion: Our review indicates that only few randomised controlled trials have evaluated the effectiveness of exercise on LPP among postnatal women. There is also a great amount of variability across existing trials in the components of exercise programs, modes of delivery, follow up times and outcome measures. While there is some evidence to indicate the effectiveness of exercise for relieving LPP, further good quality trials are needed to ascertain the most effective elements of postnatal exercise programs suited for LPP treatment

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Identification of key parameters controlling demographically structured vegetation dynamics in a land surface model: CLM4.5(FATES)

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating global carbon cycles and is a key component of the Earth system models (ESMs) that aim to project Earth's future climate. In the last decade, the vegetation component within ESMs has witnessed great progress from simple "big-leaf" approaches to demographically structured approaches, which have a better representation of plant size, canopy structure, and disturbances. These demographically structured vegetation models typically have a large number of input parameters, and sensitivity analysis is needed to quantify the impact of each parameter on the model outputs for a better understanding of model behavior. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to diagnose the Community Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator, or CLM4.5(FATES). Specifically, we quantified the first- and second-order sensitivities of the model parameters to outputs that represent simulated growth and mortality as well as carbon fluxes and stocks for a tropical site with an extent of 1×1°. While the photosynthetic capacity parameter (Vc;max25) is found to be important for simulated carbon stocks and fluxes, we also show the importance of carbon storage and allometry parameters, which determine survival and growth strategies within the model. The parameter sensitivity changes with different sizes of trees and climate conditions. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of the next generation of demographically enabled vegetation models within ESMs to improve model parameterization and structure for better model fidelity

Monogenic Epilepsies: Disease Mechanisms, Clinical Phenotypes, and Targeted Therapies

A monogenic aetiology can be identified in up to 40% of people with severe epilepsy. To address earlier and more appropriate treatment strategies, clinicians are required to know the implications that specific genetic causes might have on pathophysiology, natural history, comorbidities and treatment choices. In this narrative review, we summarise concepts on the genetic epilepsies based on the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms and present the current knowledge on treatment options based on evidence provided by controlled trials or studies with lower classification of evidence. Overall, evidence robust enough to guide antiseizure medication (ASM) choices in genetic epilepsies remains limited to the more frequent conditions for which controlled trials and observational studies have been possible. Most monogenic disorders are very rare and ASM choices for them are still based on inferences drawn from observational studies and early, often anecdotal, experiences with precision therapies. Precision medicine remains applicable to only a narrow number of patients with monogenic epilepsies and may target only part of the actual functional defects. Phenotypic heterogeneity is remarkable, and some genetic mutations activate epileptogenesis through their developmental effects, which may not be reversed postnatally. Other genes seem to have pure functional consequences on excitability, acting through either loss- or gain-of-function effects, and these may have opposite treatment implications. In addition, the functional consequences of missense mutations may be difficult to predict, making precision treatment approaches considerably more complex than estimated by deterministic interpretations. Knowledge of genetic aetiologies can influence the approach to surgical treatment of focal epilepsies. Identification of germline mutations in specific genes contraindicates surgery while mutations in other genes do not. Identification, quantification and functional characterization of specific somatic mutations before surgery using cerebrospinal fluid liquid biopsy or after surgery in brain specimens, will likely be integrated in planning surgical strategies and re-intervention after a first unsuccessful surgery as initial evidence suggests that mutational load may correlate with the epileptogenic zone. Promising future directions include gene manipulation by DNA or mRNA targeting; although most are still far from clinical use, some are in early phase clinical development

Leading causes of certification for blindness and partial sight in England & Wales

Prevention of visual impairment is an international priority agreed at the World Health Assembly of 2002--yet many countries lack contemporary data about incidence and causes from which priorities for prevention, treatment and management can be identified