Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

Open accessRecently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics

A study on the construct validity of the Parent-Child Conflict Tactics Scale (CTSPC) in an urban population in Northeast Brazil

The Parent-Child Conflict Tactics Scale (CTSPC) is one of the most widely used instruments in the world for investigating domestic violence against children, but targeted use has proven inadequate given the phenomenon's complexity. This study focused on the factor structure of CTSPC scales in an urban population in Northeast Brazil. We conducted a cross-sectional study in a cohort of 1,370 children in Salvador, Bahia State. Factor analysis with promax oblique rotation was performed, and the Kuder-Richardson coefficient was calculated. Factor analysis showed a different distribution of items in the factors as compared to the original instrument. Violence showed a gradual profile in each factor. The Kuder-Richardson coefficient was 0.63 for factor 1, 0.59 for factor 2, and 0.42 for factor 3. The items behaved differently from the original instrument, corroborating international studies. These findings support proposing a resizing of the CTSPC

Multi-scale, whole-system models of liver metabolic adaptation to fat and sugar in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious public health issue associated with high fat, high sugar diets. However, the molecular mechanisms mediating NAFLD pathogenesis are only partially understood. Here we adopt an iterative multi-scale, systems biology approach coupled to in vitro experimentation to investigate the roles of sugar and fat metabolism in NAFLD pathogenesis. The use of fructose as a sweetening agent is controversial; to explore this, we developed a predictive model of human monosaccharide transport, signalling and metabolism. The resulting quantitative model comprising a kinetic model describing monosaccharide transport and insulin signalling integrated with a hepatocyte-specific genome-scale metabolic network (GSMN). Differential kinetics for the utilisation of glucose and fructose were predicted, but the resultant triacylglycerol production was predicted to be similar for monosaccharides; these predictions were verified by in vitro data. The role of physiological adaptation to lipid overload was explored through the comprehensive reconstruction of the peroxisome proliferator activated receptor alpha (PPARα) regulome integrated with a hepatocyte-specific GSMN. The resulting qualitative model reproduced metabolic responses to increased fatty acid levels and mimicked lipid loading in vitro. The model predicted that activation of PPARα by lipids produces a biphasic response, which initially exacerbates steatosis. Our data support the evidence that it is the quantity of sugar rather than the type that is critical in driving the steatotic response. Furthermore, we predict PPARα-mediated adaptations to hepatic lipid overload, shedding light on potential challenges for the use of PPARα agonists to treat NAFLD

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Precision Tests of the Standard Model

30 páginas, 11 figuras, 11 tablas.-- Comunicación presentada al 25º Winter Meeting on Fundamental Physics celebrado del 3 al 8 de MArzo de 1997 en Formigal (España).Precision measurements of electroweak observables provide stringent tests of the Standard Model structure and an accurate determination of its parameters. An overview of the present experimental status is presented.This work has been supported in part by CICYT (Spain) under grant No. AEN-96-1718.Peer reviewe

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Evidence for 'critical slowing down' in seagrass:a stress gradient experiment at the southern limit of its range

The theory of critical slowing down, i.e. the increasing recovery times of complex systems close to tipping points, has been proposed as an early warning signal for collapse. Empirical evidence for the reality of such warning signals is still rare in ecology. We studied this on Zostera noltii intertidal seagrass meadows at their southern range limit, the Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania. We analyse the environmental covariates of recovery rates using structural equation modelling (SEM), based on an experiment in which we assessed whether recovery after disturbances (i.e. seagrass & infauna removal) depends on stress intensity (increasing with elevation) and disturbance patch size (1 m(2) vs. 9 m(2)). The SEM analyses revealed that higher biofilm density and sediment accretion best explained seagrass recovery rates. Experimental disturbances were followed by slow rates of recovery, regrowth occurring mainly in the coolest months of the year. Macrofauna recolonisation lagged behind seagrass recovery. Overall, the recovery rate was six times slower in the high intertidal zone than in the low zone. The large disturbances in the low zone recovered faster than the small ones in the high zone. This provides empirical evidence for critical slowing down with increasing desiccation stress in an intertidal seagrass system

Current European Labyrinthula zosterae Are Not Virulent and Modulate Seagrass (Zostera marina) Defense Gene Expression

Pro- and eukaryotic microbes associated with multi-cellular organisms are receiving increasing attention as a driving factor in ecosystems. Endophytes in plants can change host performance by altering nutrient uptake, secondary metabolite production or defense mechanisms. Recent studies detected widespread prevalence of Labyrinthula zosterae in European Zostera marina meadows, a protist that allegedly caused a massive amphi-Atlantic seagrass die-off event in the 1930's, while showing only limited virulence today. As a limiting factor for pathogenicity, we investigated genotype×genotype interactions of host and pathogen from different regions (10–100 km-scale) through reciprocal infection. Although the endophyte rapidly infected Z. marina, we found little evidence that Z. marina was negatively impacted by L. zosterae. Instead Z. marina showed enhanced leaf growth and kept endophyte abundance low. Moreover, we found almost no interaction of protist×eelgrass-origin on different parameters of L. zosterae virulence/Z. marina performance, and also no increase in mortality after experimental infection. In a target gene approach, we identified a significant down-regulation in the expression of 6/11 genes from the defense cascade of Z. marina after real-time quantitative PCR, revealing strong immune modulation of the host's defense by a potential parasite for the first time in a marine plant. Nevertheless, one gene involved in phenol synthesis was strongly up-regulated, indicating that Z. marina plants were probably able to control the level of infection. There was no change in expression in a general stress indicator gene (HSP70). Mean L. zosterae abundances decreased below 10% after 16 days of experimental runtime. We conclude that under non-stress conditions L. zosterae infection in the study region is not associated with substantial virulence

Circulating microparticles: square the circle

Background: The present review summarizes current knowledge about microparticles (MPs) and provides a systematic overview of last 20 years of research on circulating MPs, with particular focus on their clinical relevance. Results: MPs are a heterogeneous population of cell-derived vesicles, with sizes ranging between 50 and 1000 nm. MPs are capable of transferring peptides, proteins, lipid components, microRNA, mRNA, and DNA from one cell to another without direct cell-to-cell contact. Growing evidence suggests that MPs present in peripheral blood and body fluids contribute to the development and progression of cancer, and are of pathophysiological relevance for autoimmune, inflammatory, infectious, cardiovascular, hematological, and other diseases. MPs have large diagnostic potential as biomarkers; however, due to current technological limitations in purification of MPs and an absence of standardized methods of MP detection, challenges remain in validating the potential of MPs as a non-invasive and early diagnostic platform. Conclusions: Improvements in the effective deciphering of MP molecular signatures will be critical not only for diagnostics, but also for the evaluation of treatment regimens and predicting disease outcomes

Search for supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in √s =13 TeV pp collisions with ATLAS

Results from a search for supersymmetry in events with four or more charged leptons (electrons, muons and taus) are presented. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to 36.1 fb −1 of proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider at s √ =13 TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Four-lepton signal regions with up to two hadronically decaying taus are designed to target a range of supersymmetric scenarios that can be either enriched in or depleted of events involving the production and decay of a Z boson. Data yields are consistent with Standard Model expectations and results are used to set upper limits on the event yields from processes beyond the Standard Model. Exclusion limits are set at the 95% confidence level in simplified models of General Gauge Mediated supersymmetry, where higgsino masses are excluded up to 295 GeV. In R -parity-violating simplified models with decays of the lightest supersymmetric particle to charged leptons, lower limits of 1.46 TeV, 1.06 TeV, and 2.25 TeV are placed on wino, slepton and gluino masses, respectively