North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction: underlying science and an evaluation of statistical models

Statistically-based seasonal hurricane outlooks for the North Atlantic were initiated by Colorado State University (CSU) in 1984, and have been issued every year since that time by CSU. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center and the UK-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) have the next longest records (1998-present) of continuous outlooks. This chapter describes how these three forecasts have evolved with time, and documents the approaches, the environmental fields, and the lead times which underpin the models’ operation. Some of the environmental parameters used in early seasonal outlooks are no longer employed, but new predictive fields have been found which appear to be more important for seasonal hurricane prediction. An assessment is made of the deterministic skill of the seasonal hurricane outlooks issued in real-time by CSU, NOAA, and TSR between 2003 and 2014. All methods show moderate-to-good skill for early August outlooks (prior to the most active portion of the hurricane season), low-to-moderate skill for outlooks issued in early June, and lesser skill for outlooks issued in early April. Overall, the TSR model has the most skillful predictions of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), while NOAA has the best named storm predictions issued in early August

Using eddy covariance to measure the dependence of air–sea CO2 exchange rate on friction velocity

Parameterisation of the air–sea gas transfer velocity of CO2 and other trace gases under open-ocean conditions has been a focus of air–sea interaction research and is required for accurately determining ocean carbon uptake. Ships are the most widely used platform for air–sea flux measurements but the quality of the data can be compromised by airflow distortion and sensor cross-sensitivity effects. Recent improvements in the understanding of these effects have led to enhanced corrections to the shipboard eddy covariance (EC) measurements. Here, we present a revised analysis of eddy covariance measurements of air–sea CO2 and momentum fluxes from the Southern Ocean Surface Ocean Aerosol Production (SOAP) study. We show that it is possible to significantly reduce the scatter in the EC data and achieve consistency between measurements taken on station and with the ship underway. The gas transfer velocities from the EC measurements correlate better with the EC friction velocity (u*) than with mean wind speeds derived from shipboard measurements corrected with an airflow distortion model. For the observed range of wind speeds (u10 N = 3–23 m s−1), the transfer velocities can be parameterised with a linear fit to u*. The SOAP data are compared to previous gas transfer parameterisations using u10 N computed from the EC friction velocity with the drag coefficient from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) model version 3.5. The SOAP results are consistent with previous gas transfer studies, but at high wind speeds they do not support the sharp increase in gas transfer associated with bubble-mediated transfer predicted by physically based models

Air/sea DMS gas transfer in the North Atlantic: evidence for limited interfacial gas exchange at high wind speed

Shipboard measurements of eddy covariance dimethylsulfide (DMS) air–sea fluxes and seawater concentration were carried out in the North Atlantic bloom region in June/July 2011. Gas transfer coefficients (k660) show a linear dependence on mean horizontal wind speed at wind speeds up to 11 m s−1. At higher wind speeds the relationship between k660 and wind speed weakens. At high winds, measured DMS fluxes were lower than predicted based on the linear relationship between wind speed and interfacial stress extrapolated from low to intermediate wind speeds. In contrast, the transfer coefficient for sensible heat did not exhibit this effect. The apparent suppression of air–sea gas flux at higher wind speeds appears to be related to sea state, as determined from shipboard wave measurements. These observations are consistent with the idea that long waves suppress near-surface water-side turbulence, and decrease interfacial gas transfer. This effect may be more easily observed for DMS than for less soluble gases, such as CO2, because the air–sea exchange of DMS is controlled by interfacial rather than bubble-mediated gas transfer under high wind speed conditions

A genetic network that suppresses genome rearrangements in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and contains defects in cancers.

Gross chromosomal rearrangements (GCRs) play an important role in human diseases, including cancer. The identity of all Genome Instability Suppressing (GIS) genes is not currently known. Here multiple Saccharomyces cerevisiae GCR assays and query mutations were crossed into arrays of mutants to identify progeny with increased GCR rates. One hundred eighty two GIS genes were identified that suppressed GCR formation. Another 438 cooperatively acting GIS genes were identified that were not GIS genes, but suppressed the increased genome instability caused by individual query mutations. Analysis of TCGA data using the human genes predicted to act in GIS pathways revealed that a minimum of 93% of ovarian and 66% of colorectal cancer cases had defects affecting one or more predicted GIS gene. These defects included loss-of-function mutations, copy-number changes associated with reduced expression, and silencing. In contrast, acute myeloid leukaemia cases did not appear to have defects affecting the predicted GIS genes

Gradient flux measurements of sea–air DMS transfer during the Surface Ocean Aerosol Production (SOAP) experiment

Direct measurements of marine dimethylsulfide (DMS) fluxes are sparse, particularly in the Southern Ocean. The Surface Ocean Aerosol Production (SOAP) voyage in February–March 2012 examined the distribution and flux of DMS in a biologically active frontal system in the southwest Pacific Ocean. Three distinct phytoplankton blooms were studied with oceanic DMS concentrations as high as 25 nmol L−1. Measurements of DMS fluxes were made using two independent methods: the eddy covariance (EC) technique using atmospheric pressure chemical ionization–mass spectrometry (API-CIMS) and the gradient flux (GF) technique from an autonomous catamaran platform. Catamaran flux measurements are relatively unaffected by airflow distortion and are made close to the water surface, where gas gradients are largest. Flux measurements were complemented by near-surface hydrographic measurements to elucidate physical factors influencing DMS emission. Individual DMS fluxes derived by EC showed significant scatter and, at times, consistent departures from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment gas transfer algorithm (COAREG). A direct comparison between the two flux methods was carried out to separate instrumental effects from environmental effects and showed good agreement with a regression slope of 0.96 (r2 = 0.89). A period of abnormal downward atmospheric heat flux enhanced near-surface ocean stratification and reduced turbulent exchange, during which GF and EC transfer velocities showed good agreement but modelled COAREG values were significantly higher. The transfer velocity derived from near-surface ocean turbulence measurements on a spar buoy compared well with the COAREG model in general but showed less variation. This first direct comparison between EC and GF fluxes of DMS provides confidence in compilation of flux estimates from both techniques, as well as in the stable periods when the observations are not well predicted by the COAREG model

Recommendations for dealing with waste contaminated with Ebola virus: a Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points approach

Objective To assess, within communities experiencing Ebola virus outbreaks, the risks associated with the disposal of human waste and to generate recommendations for mitigating such risks. Methods A team with expertise in the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework identified waste products from the care of individuals with Ebola virus disease and constructed, tested and confirmed flow diagrams showing the creation of such products. After listing potential hazards associated with each step in each flow diagram, the team conducted a hazard analysis, determined critical control points and made recommendations to mitigate the transmission risks at each control point. Findings The collection, transportation, cleaning and shared use of blood-soiled fomites and the shared use of latrines contaminated with blood or bloodied faeces appeared to be associated with particularly high levels of risk of Ebola virus transmission. More moderate levels of risk were associated with the collection and transportation of material contaminated with bodily fluids other than blood, shared use of latrines soiled with such fluids, the cleaning and shared use of fomites soiled with such fluids, and the contamination of the environment during the collection and transportation of blood-contaminated waste. Conclusion The risk of the waste-related transmission of Ebola virus could be reduced by the use of full personal protective equipment, appropriate hand hygiene and an appropriate disinfectant after careful cleaning. Use of the Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points framework could facilitate rapid responses to outbreaks of emerging infectious disease

Binary and Millisecond Pulsars at the New Millennium

We review the properties and applications of binary and millisecond pulsars. Our knowledge of these exciting objects has greatly increased in recent years, mainly due to successful surveys which have brought the known pulsar population to over 1300. There are now 56 binary and millisecond pulsars in the Galactic disk and a further 47 in globular clusters. This review is concerned primarily with the results and spin-offs from these surveys which are of particular interest to the relativity community.Comment: 59 pages, 26 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Substantial Seasonal Contribution of Observed Biogenic Sulfate Particles to Cloud Condensation Nuclei

Biogenic sources contribute to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the clean marine atmosphere, but few measurements exist to constrain climate model simulations of their importance. The chemical composition of individual atmospheric aerosol particles showed two types of sulfate-containing particles in clean marine air masses in addition to mass-based Estimated Salt particles. Both types of sulfate particles lack combustion tracers and correlate, for some conditions, to atmospheric or seawater dimethyl sulfide (DMS) concentrations, which means their source was largely biogenic. The first type is identified as New Sulfate because their large sulfate mass fraction (63% sulfate) and association with entrainment conditions means they could have formed by nucleation in the free troposphere. The second type is Added Sulfate particles (38% sulfate), because they are preexisting particles onto which additional sulfate condensed. New Sulfate particles accounted for 31% (7 cm−3) and 33% (36 cm−3) CCN at 0.1% supersaturation in late-autumn and late-spring, respectively, whereas sea spray provided 55% (13 cm−3) in late-autumn but only 4% (4 cm−3) in late-spring. Our results show a clear seasonal difference in the marine CCN budget, which illustrates how important phytoplankton-produced DMS emissions are for CCN in the North Atlantic

The urgent need to develop emergency EYE care in the UK:the way forward?

For two decades prior to 2004, a steady state existed of ~14 million general Accident and Emergency (A&E) annual attendances in England. This total has risen each year since, with 22.9 million attendances recorded in 2015/16 (https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/06/Monthly-AE-Report-December-16.pdf). Resultant pressure on A&E has received a great deal of public attention and extra resourcing with medical staff numbers rising 71% from 2002 to 2012

Aptamer-based multiplexed proteomic technology for biomarker discovery

Interrogation of the human proteome in a highly multiplexed and efficient manner remains a coveted and challenging goal in biology. We present a new aptamer-based proteomic technology for biomarker discovery capable of simultaneously measuring thousands of proteins from small sample volumes (15 [mu]L of serum or plasma). Our current assay allows us to measure ~800 proteins with very low limits of detection (1 pM average), 7 logs of overall dynamic range, and 5% average coefficient of variation. This technology is enabled by a new generation of aptamers that contain chemically modified nucleotides, which greatly expand the physicochemical diversity of the large randomized nucleic acid libraries from which the aptamers are selected. Proteins in complex matrices such as plasma are measured with a process that transforms a signature of protein concentrations into a corresponding DNA aptamer concentration signature, which is then quantified with a DNA microarray. In essence, our assay takes advantage of the dual nature of aptamers as both folded binding entities with defined shapes and unique sequences recognizable by specific hybridization probes. To demonstrate the utility of our proteomics biomarker discovery technology, we applied it to a clinical study of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We identified two well known CKD biomarkers as well as an additional 58 potential CKD biomarkers. These results demonstrate the potential utility of our technology to discover unique protein signatures characteristic of various disease states. More generally, we describe a versatile and powerful tool that allows large-scale comparison of proteome profiles among discrete populations. This unbiased and highly multiplexed search engine will enable the discovery of novel biomarkers in a manner that is unencumbered by our incomplete knowledge of biology, thereby helping to advance the next generation of evidence-based medicine