Engineering design applications of surrogate-assisted optimization techniques

The construction of models aimed at learning the behaviour of a system whose responses to inputs are expensive to measure is a branch of statistical science that has been around for a very long time. Geostatistics has pioneered a drive over the last half century towards a better understanding of the accuracy of such ‘surrogate’ models of the expensive function. Of particular interest to us here are some of the even more recent advances related to exploiting such formulations in an optimization context. While the classic goal of the modelling process has been to achieve a uniform prediction accuracy across the domain, an economical optimization process may aim to bias the distribution of the learning budget towards promising basins of attraction. This can only happen, of course, at the expense of the global exploration of the space and thus finding the best balance may be viewed as an optimization problem in itself. We examine here a selection of the state of-the-art solutions to this type of balancing exercise through the prism of several simple, illustrative problems, followed by two ‘real world’ applications: the design of a regional airliner wing and the multi-objective search for a low environmental impact hous

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers.

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California

Sex-dependent influence of endogenous estrogen in pulmonary hypertension

Rationale: The incidence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is greater in women suggesting estrogens may play a role in the disease pathogenesis. Experimentally, in males exogenously administered estrogen can protect against PH; however in models that display female susceptibility estrogens may play a causative role. Objectives: To clarify the influence of endogenous estrogen and gender in PH and assess the therapeutic potential of a clinically available aromatase inhibitor. Methods: We interrogated the effect of reduced endogenous estrogen in males and females using the aromatase inhibitor, anastrozole, in two models of PH; the hypoxic mouse and Sugen 5416/hypoxic rat. We also determined the effects of gender on pulmonary expression of aromatase in these models and in lungs from PAH patients. Results: Anastrozole attenuated PH in both models studied, but only in females. To verify this effect was due to reduced estrogenic activity we confirmed that in hypoxic mice inhibition of estrogen receptor alpha also has a therapeutic effect specifically in females. Female rodent lung displays increased aromatase and decreased BMPR2 and Id1 expression compared to male. Anastrozole treatment reversed the impaired BMPR2 pathway in females. Increased aromatase expression was also detected in female human pulmonary artery smooth muscle cells compared to male. Conclusions: The unique phenotype of female pulmonary arteries facilitates the therapeutic effects of anastrozole in experimental PH confirming a role for endogenous estrogen in the disease pathogenesis in females and suggests aromatase inhibitors may have therapeutic potential

Dynamic Limits on Planar Libration-Orbit Coupling Around an Oblate Primary

This paper explores the dynamic properties of the planar system of an ellipsoidal satellite in an equatorial orbit about an oblate primary. In particular, we investigate the conditions for which the satellite is bound in librational motion or when the satellite will circulate with respect to the primary. We find the existence of stable equilibrium points about which the satellite can librate, and explore both the linearized and non-linear dynamics around these points. Absolute bounds are placed on the phase space of the libration-orbit coupling through the use of zero-velocity curves that exist in the system. These zero-velocity curves are used to derive a sufficient condition for when the satellite's libration is bound to less than 90 degrees. When this condition is not satisfied so that circulation of the satellite is possible, the initial conditions at zero libration angle are determined which lead to circulation of the satellite. Exact analytical conditions for circulation and the maximum libration angle are derived for the case of a small satellite in orbits of any eccentricity.Comment: Submitted to Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronom

Soil methane sink capacity response to a long-term wildfire chronosequence in Northern Sweden

Boreal forests occupy nearly one fifth of the terrestrial land surface and are recognised as globally important regulators of carbon (C) cycling and greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon sequestration processes in these forests include assimilation of CO2 into biomass and subsequently into soil organic matter, and soil microbial oxidation of methane (CH4). In this study we explored how ecosystem retrogression, which drives vegetation change, regulates the important process of soil CH4 oxidation in boreal forests. We measured soil CH4 oxidation processes on a group of 30 forested islands in northern Sweden differing greatly in fire history, and collectively representing a retrogressive chronosequence, spanning 5000 years. Across these islands the build-up of soil organic matter was observed to increase with time since fire disturbance, with a significant correlation between greater humus depth and increased net soil CH4 oxidation rates. We suggest that this increase in net CH4 oxidation rates, in the absence of disturbance, results as deeper humus stores accumulate and provide niches for methanotrophs to thrive. By using this gradient we have discovered important regulatory controls on the stability of soil CH4 oxidation processes that could not have not been explored through shorter-term experiments. Our findings indicate that in the absence of human interventions such as fire suppression, and with increased wildfire frequency, the globally important boreal CH4 sink could be diminished

On the coset duals of extended higher spin theories

We study the holographic duality between the M x M matrix extension of Vasiliev higher spin theories on AdS3 and the large N limit of SU(N+M)/SU(N) x U(1) type cosets. We present a simplified proof for the agreement of the spectra and clarify the relation between this duality and the version in which the cosets are replaced by Kazama-Suzuki models of Grassmannian type.Comment: 27 pages, 1 tabl

A Primary Care Nurse-Delivered Walking Intervention in Older Adults: PACE (Pedometer Accelerometer Consultation Evaluation)-Lift Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial.

Background: Brisk walking in older people can increase step-counts and moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) in ≥10-minute bouts, as advised in World Health Organization guidelines. Previous interventions have reported step-count increases, but not change in objectively measured MVPA in older people. We assessed whether a primary care nurse-delivered complex intervention increased objectively measured step-counts and MVPA. Methods and Findings: A total of 988 60–75 year olds, able to increase walking and randomly selected from three UK family practices, were invited to participate in a parallel two-arm cluster randomised trial; randomisation was by household. Two-hundred-ninety-eight people from 250 households were randomised between 2011 and 2012; 150 individuals to the intervention group, 148 to the usual care control group. Intervention participants received four primary care nurse physical activity (PA) consultations over 3 months, incorporating behaviour change techniques, pedometer step-count and accelerometer PA intensity feedback, and an individual PA diary and plan. Assessors were not blinded to group status, but statistical analyses were conducted blind. The primary outcome was change in accelerometry assessed average daily step-counts between baseline and 3 months, with change at 12 months a secondary outcome. Other secondary outcomes were change from baseline in time in MVPA weekly in ≥10-minute bouts, accelerometer counts, and counts/minute at 3 months and 12 months. Other outcomes were adverse events, anthropometric measures, mood, and pain. Qualitative evaluations of intervention participants and practice nurses assessed the intervention’s acceptability. At 3 months, eight participants had withdrawn or were lost to follow-up, 280 (94%) individuals provided primary outcome data. At 3 months changes in both average daily step-counts and weekly MVPA in ≥10-minute bouts were significantly higher in the intervention than control group: by 1,037 (95% CI 513–1,560) steps/day and 63 (95% CI 40–87) minutes/week, respectively. At 12 months corresponding differences were 609 (95% CI 104–1,115) steps/day and 40 (95% CI 17–63) minutes/week. Counts and counts/minute showed similar effects to steps and MVPA. Adverse events, anthropometry, mood, and pain were similar in the two groups. Participants and practice nurses found the intervention acceptable and enjoyable. Conclusions : The PACE-Lift trial increased both step-counts and objectively measured MVPA in ≥10-minute bouts in 60–75 year olds at 3 and 12 months, with no effect on adverse events. To our knowledge, this is the first trial in this age group to demonstrate objective MVPA increases and highlights the value of individualised support incorporating objective PA assessment in a primary care setting. Trial Registration: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN4212256

Apparent non-canonical trans-splicing is generated by reverse transcriptase in vitro

Trans-splicing, the in vivo joining of two RNA molecules, is well characterized in several groups of simple organisms but was long thought absent from fungi, plants and mammals. However, recent bioinformatic analyses of expressed sequence tag (EST) databases suggested widespread trans-splicing in mammals^1-2^. Splicing, including the characterised trans-splicing systems, involves conserved sequences at the splice junctions. Our analysis of a yeast non-coding RNA revealed that around 30% of the products of reverse transcription lacked an internal region of 117 nt, suggesting that the RNA was spliced. The junction sequences lacked canonical splice-sites but were flanked by direct repeats, and further analyses indicated that the apparent splicing actually arose because reverse transcriptase can switch templates during transcription^3^. Many newly identified, apparently trans-spliced, RNAs lacked canonical splice sites but were flanked by short regions of homology, leading us to question their authenticity. Here we report that all reported categories of non-canonical splicing could be replicated using an in vitro reverse transcription system with highly purified RNA substrates. We observed the reproducible occurrence of ostensible trans-splicing, exon shuffling and sense-antisense fusions. The latter generate apparent antisense non-coding RNAs, which are also reported to be abundant in humans^4^. Different reverse transcriptases can generate different products of template switching, providing a simple diagnostic. Many reported examples of splicing in the absence of canonical splicing signals may be artefacts of cDNA preparation

Roaring high and low: composition and possible functions of the Iberian stag's vocal repertoire

We provide a detailed description of the rutting vocalisations of free-ranging male Iberian deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus, Hilzheimer 1909), a geographically isolated and morphologically differentiated subspecies of red deer Cervus elaphus. We combine spectrographic examinations, spectral analyses and automated classifications to identify different call types, and compare the composition of the vocal repertoire with that of other red deer subspecies. Iberian stags give bouts of roars (and more rarely, short series of barks) that are typically composed of two different types of calls. Long Common Roars are mostly given at the beginning or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a high fundamental frequency (F0) resulting in poorly defined formant frequencies but a relatively high amplitude. In contrast, Short Common Roars are typically given in the middle or at the end of the bout, and are characterised by a lower F0 resulting in relatively well defined vocal tract resonances, but low amplitude. While we did not identify entirely Harsh Roars (as described in the Scottish red deer subspecies (Cervus elaphus scoticus), a small percentage of Long Common Roars contained segments of deterministic chaos. We suggest that the evolution of two clearly distinct types of Common Roars may reflect divergent selection pressures favouring either vocal efficiency in high pitched roars or the communication of body size in low-pitched, high spectral density roars highlighting vocal tract resonances. The clear divergence of the Iberian red deer vocal repertoire from those of other documented European red deer populations reinforces the status of this geographical variant as a distinct subspecies