Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?

In the European Emission Trading scheme the supply of allowances exceeds emissions - cumulating, according to our estimates, in a surplus of 2.7 billion tonnes by 2013/2014. We find that initially the surplus was acquired by power companies so as to hedge future carbon costs. As the surplus exceeds this hedging demand, additional allowances need to be acquired as speculative investment. This requires higher rates of return and implies that expected future carbon prices are highly discounted. This could explain the recent drop in carbon prices. The analysis shows that the volume of unused allowances matters for the discount applied to future carbon prices. We use our supply-demand framework to assess currently discussed policy options set-aside, reserve price for auctions and adjustments of emission targets

Sowing the Wind and Reaping the Whirlwind? The Effect of Wind Turbines on Residential Well-Being

This paper investigates the effect of wind turbines on residential well-being in Germany, using panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a unique, novel data set on wind turbines for the time period between 2000 and 2012. Using a Geographical Information System (GIS), it calculates the distance from households to the nearest wind turbines to determine whether an individual is affected by disamenities, e.g. through visual pollution. The depth of our unique, novel data set on wind turbines, which has been collected at the regional level and which includes, besides their exact geographical coordinates, their construction dates, allows estimating the causal effect of wind turbines on residential well-being, using difference-in-difference propensity-score and spatial matching techniques. We demonstrate that the construction of a new wind turbine in a treatment area of 4000 metres around households has a significantly negative impact on life satisfaction. Moreover, this effect is found to be of transitory nature. Contrasting the implicit monetary valuation with the damage through CO2 emissions avoided by wind turbines, wind power turns out to be a favorable technology despite robust evidence for negative externalities

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction

We quantify the value of sub-seasonal forecasts for a real-world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month-ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor, we construct a trading strategy and assess the financial value of using meteorological forecasts, based on actual energy demand and price data. We show that forecasts with lead times greater than 2 weeks can have value for this application, both on their own and in conjunction with shorter range forecasts, especially during boreal winter. We consider a cost/loss framework based on this example, and show that while it captures the performance of the short range forecasts well, it misses the marginal value present in the longer range forecasts. We also contrast our assessment of forecast value to that given by traditional skill scores, which we show could be misleading if used in isolation. We emphasise the importance of basing assessment of forecast skill on variables actually used by end-users.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, revised submission to QJRM