Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand

In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess whether seasonal weather forecasts can skilfully predict the weather-driven component of both winter mean gas demand and the number of extreme gas demand days over the winter period. We find that both the mean and the number of extreme days are predicted with some skill from early November using seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (r > 0.5). Although temperature is most strongly correlated with gas demand, the more skilful prediction of the atmospheric circulation means it is a better predictor of demand. If seasonal weather forecasts are incorporated into pre-winter gas demand planning, they could help improve the security of gas supplies and reduce the impacts associated with extreme demand events

EVALUATING HEMP \u3cem\u3e(CANNABIS SATIVA)\u3c/em\u3e AS A FORAGE BASED ON YIELD, NUTRITIVE ANALYSIS, AND MORPHOLOGICAL COMPOSITION

This experiment examined the forage potential of hemp (Cannabis sativa) and kenaf (Hibiscus cannabinus). The objectives were to evaluate yield and forage nutritive value (i.e. NDF, ADF, ADL, IVTD, and CP) fluctuations over the course of a growing season based on planting date, morphological composition, and management. Three types of hemp (grain, fiber, and a dual- purpose type) and kenaf were planted on two dates and were sampled approximately every two weeks throughout the growing season at the University of Kentucky (UK) Research Farm in Lexington, KY. Subsamples were separated into morphological components (i.e. leaf, flowers, stem, core fiber, and bast fiber) while the remainder of the sample was ground for laboratory analysis. All samples were scanned in Foss 6500 NIRS and wet chemistry analytical methods were utilized on a subset of samples to develop equations to predict the nutritive value of the remaining samples. Significant interactions for forage type, planting date, and harvest time were observed for yield, % floral components, % bast, and ADL. Significant interactions occurred between planting date and harvest date as well as type and harvest date for NDF, ADF, digestibility, crude protein, % leaf, % core, and % stem. Overall, forage nutritive value declined with increased plant maturity. The later planting date reduced the vegetative growth period, resulting in reduced leaf content, yield, and forage nutritive value. The performance of kenaf in this study indicates that it may be a better alternative forage than hemp due to remaining vegetative longer and having superior nutritive value. Better selection and the development of new hemp varieties with different photoperiod requirements could lengthen the vegetative state and may result in yields and nutritive values that are more competitive with kenaf and other typical forages

Subverted modernism: Korngold's Die tote Stadt

Thesis (M.M.)--Boston UniversityUsing the 1920 opera Die tote Stadt as its primary case in point, this thesis interrogates the pervasive notion that the Austrian-born composer Erich Wolfgang Korngold (1897-1957) refused to acknowledge Modernist trends, dialogues and aesthetics in his works for the stage, and instead held fast to late-Romantic aesthetics and philosophies at the expense of engaging directly with contemporary culture and politics. I show evidence to the contrary, that Komgold was in fact actively involved with the intellectual, artistic and socio-political discourse of his time, and that this engagement is manifest in his opera, which draws parallels between the city of Bruges, setting of Die tote Stadt's source material, Georges Rodenbach's 1892 novel Bruges-la-morte, and Vienna, the composer's hometown, as it was at the close of the First World War. In substantiating this claim, I first of all seek to place the composer in his proper context as a child offin-de-siecle Vienna, and the son of that city's leading conservative music critic, the influential and much-feared Julius Komgold, successor to Eduard Hanslick at the Neue Freie Presse. I also interrogate lingering assumptions about the composer's lack of socio-political engagement owing to his status as a former child prodigy, famous across Europe for his preternatural musical gifts. I also explore the specific, alterations, additions and excisions made by the composer to his source material in translating it to the musical stage, and discuss how those changes reflect his compositional and socio-political ethos. Finally, I analyze portions of Die tote Stadt and discuss how a composer's late-Romantic compositional language can in fact indicate Modernist sympathies, albeit in their own specific strain, before sketching a brief reception history of this opera in particular, the composer's works in general, as well as discussing how this work might be reassessed and rehabilitated into the "art music" canon

Associations of the plasma lipidome with mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome: a longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background It is unknown if the plasma lipidome is a useful tool for improving our understanding of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Therefore, we measured the plasma lipidome of individuals with ARDS at two time-points to determine if changes in the plasma lipidome distinguished survivors from non-survivors. We hypothesized that both the absolute concentration and change in concentration over time of plasma lipids are associated with 28-day mortality in this population. Methods Samples for this longitudinal observational cohort study were collected at multiple tertiary-care academic medical centers as part of a previous multicenter clinical trial. A mass spectrometry shot-gun lipidomic assay was used to quantify the lipidome in plasma samples from 30 individuals. Samples from two different days were analyzed for each subject. After removing lipids with a coefficient of variation > 30%, differences between cohorts were identified using repeated measures analysis of variance. The false discovery rate was used to adjust for multiple comparisons. Relationships between significant compounds were explored using hierarchical clustering of the Pearson correlation coefficients and the magnitude of these relationships was described using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The mass spectrometry assay reliably measured 359 lipids. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, 90 compounds differed between survivors and non-survivors. Survivors had higher levels for each of these lipids except for five membrane lipids. Glycerolipids, particularly those containing polyunsaturated fatty acid side-chains, represented many of the lipids with higher concentrations in survivors. The change in lipid concentration over time did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. Conclusions The concentration of multiple plasma lipids is associated with mortality in this group of critically ill patients with ARDS. Absolute lipid levels provided more information than the change in concentration over time. These findings support future research aimed at integrating lipidomics into critical care medicine.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143134/1/12931_2018_Article_758.pd

Temporal Trends and Predictors of Modern Contraceptive Use in Lusaka, Zambia, 2004-2011.

INTRODUCTION: Although increasing access to family planning has been an important part of the global development agenda, millions of women continue to face unmet need for contraception. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from a repeated cross-sectional community survey conducted in Lusaka, Zambia, over an eight-year period. We described prevalence of modern contraceptive use, including long-acting reversible contraception (LARC), among female heads of household aged 16-50 years. We also identified predictors of LARC versus short-term contraceptive use among women using modern methods. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Twelve survey rounds were completed between November 2004 and September 2011. Among 29,476 eligible respondents, 17,605 (60%) reported using modern contraception. Oral contraceptive pills remained the most popular method over time, but use of LARC increased significantly, from less than 1% in 2004 to 9% by 2011 (p < 0.001). Younger women (OR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.61) and women with lower levels of education (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.89) were less likely to report LARC use compared to women using short-term modern methods. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based assessments of contraceptive use over time can guide programs and policies. To achieve reproductive health equity and reduce unmet contraceptive need, future efforts to increase LARC use should focus on young women and those with less education

Associations of the plasma lipidome with mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome: a longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background It is unknown if the plasma lipidome is a useful tool for improving our understanding of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Therefore, we measured the plasma lipidome of individuals with ARDS at two time-points to determine if changes in the plasma lipidome distinguished survivors from non-survivors. We hypothesized that both the absolute concentration and change in concentration over time of plasma lipids are associated with 28-day mortality in this population. Methods Samples for this longitudinal observational cohort study were collected at multiple tertiary-care academic medical centers as part of a previous multicenter clinical trial. A mass spectrometry shot-gun lipidomic assay was used to quantify the lipidome in plasma samples from 30 individuals. Samples from two different days were analyzed for each subject. After removing lipids with a coefficient of variation > 30%, differences between cohorts were identified using repeated measures analysis of variance. The false discovery rate was used to adjust for multiple comparisons. Relationships between significant compounds were explored using hierarchical clustering of the Pearson correlation coefficients and the magnitude of these relationships was described using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The mass spectrometry assay reliably measured 359 lipids. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, 90 compounds differed between survivors and non-survivors. Survivors had higher levels for each of these lipids except for five membrane lipids. Glycerolipids, particularly those containing polyunsaturated fatty acid side-chains, represented many of the lipids with higher concentrations in survivors. The change in lipid concentration over time did not differ between survivors and non-survivors. Conclusions The concentration of multiple plasma lipids is associated with mortality in this group of critically ill patients with ARDS. Absolute lipid levels provided more information than the change in concentration over time. These findings support future research aimed at integrating lipidomics into critical care medicine.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143134/1/12931_2018_Article_758.pd

The Relationship Between Power Distance, Trust, and Performance in Video Game Development Teams

This study investigated the effect of power distance and intra-team trust on performance in video game development teams. Drawing on a data set of 11 student teams developing mobile video games, we found a significant positive relationship between intra-team trust and team performance over time. The growth in the significance of this relationship over time paralleled Tuckman and Jensen’s (2010) four stages of group development (forming, storming, norming, and performing). No relationship was identified between team power distance and team performance. These findings contribute to forming a general understanding of how power distance and team trust affect the performance of video game development teams

Price Discrimination in the Airline Industry

In the past 10 to 15 years we have seen the emergence of low cost, "no frills" airlines competing directly with traditional carriers. This increase in competition coupled with the growing use of the internet has significantly increased price transparency within the airline industry. The primary aim of this study is to determine if and how price transparency has altered the way airlines price discriminate. The first part of this paper contains a general review of price discrimination within the airline industry. It outlines several pricing strategies adopted by airlines and considers the recent social, political and economic changes that have affected these pricing strategies. The second part contains a quantitative analysis of pricing profiles today and compares them with those existing in 2005. The results outline the emergence of two new consumer segments during this time period. "Low-low" yield consumers have emerged that place little value on time compared with other passengers. These new consumers use the internet to search for the best price and often purchase tickets a long time in advance. Airlines are increasingly using advance purchase discounts to price discriminate with these consumers. "Small-business" passengers are the other new consumer segment. The current economic downturn has put pressure on businesses to reduce costs. These passengers now opt for the cheaper, simpler service. Low cost airlines are offering more flights to suit this consumer demand. The conclusion of the study is that in general airlines have adopted the same pricing principles today as they did in 2005 but with the schedules shifted to reflect the current business environment

Licensed but Unprepared: Special Educators’ Preparation to Teach Autistic Students

Thesis advisor: Marilyn Cochran-SmithThe number of autistic students receiving special education services increased 478% between the years 2000 and 2013 (National Center for Education Statistics, 2016). U.S. schools and teachers are educating more autistic students with complex educational needs resulting from differences in communication, social interaction and behavior. As a result, schools need increasing numbers of teachers who are equipped to educate them. Quality special education teacher preparation is critical for teachers of autistic students, because it can affect the quality of education and outcomes for this highly unique student population. Very little research has been conducted to determine the extent to which special education teacher preparation programs provide teachers with preparation to teach autistic students, or about the extent to which special educators feel prepared to teach this population at the point of conclusion of their preparation programs. This study used a mixed methods sequential explanatory design to examine the perceptions of special educators about their preparedness to teach autistic students based on preparation program/licensure, specialized autism coursework, and on-the-job experiences after licensure programs. A researcher-created survey was followed by interviews to explore participants’ survey responses more deeply. Survey data (n =121) were used to inform both question construction and participant selection for a purposive sample of follow-up interviews (n= 10). Regression analyses, means, summary scores, and thematic coding were employed to analyze the survey data. Results indicated that the majority (77%) of special education teachers felt unprepared to teach autistic students at the end of their licensure programs. However, specialized autism coursework was a significant predictor of teachers’ sense of preparedness. Limitations of the study and implications for special education teacher preparation and education are discussed.Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2017.Submitted to: Boston College. Lynch School of Education.Discipline: Teacher Education, Special Education, Curriculum and Instruction