An experimental analysis of information aggregation in decision markets : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Knowledge in a society is often distributed amongst different individuals, each holding different pieces of information. By aggregating these dispersed, different pieces of information, accurate forecasts can be generated, adding potential to improve decision-making processes. Decision markets are economic mechanisms to concurrently predict the future and decide on it. They incentivize “expert” individuals to predict the consequences of each of a set of possible actions and then select an action based on these predictions. Decision markets rely on scoring rules (payment schemes) to guarantee that experts are properly incentivized to truthfully reveal their beliefs whilst using decision rules to translate aggregated forecasts into decisions. In this thesis, we present an experimental study of information aggregation in decision markets. Objective of the study is to provide a proof-of-principle for the functioning of decision markets. Market prices are dependent on the private signals given to participants, signifying that signal constellations are the primary determinant of final market prices. We find that decision markets work in aggregating private information and that the incentive compatibility of the decision rule matters for information aggregation. Upon exploring behavioural attributes that might be linked to individual trading performance, we discover that the decision rules also have an impact on participants’ behaviour in the market but we find no evidence that individual behavioural attributes has any influence on market efficiency. Our findings can inform future experiments about decision making processes and real world decision market applications

Using soybean-derived materials to rejuvenate reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) binders and mixtures

Over the past few years, the use of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) has been growing consistently from 15% in 2009 to 20.3% in 2015. The desire to use higher amounts of RAP is inspired by the need to lower costs, conserve energy, and preserve the environment. Increasing asphalt prices, and limited supply of higher quality virgin aggregates, are strong motivations to use RAP as a replacement for the more expensive virgin asphalt and aggregates. The main obstacle from using higher amounts of RAP is the aged and deteriorated properties of the RAP binder. With aging, asphalt binders suffer from oxidation which results in the conversion of part of the maltenes fraction to asphaltenes. Asphaltenes are primarily responsible for increasing the asphalt stiffness. The use of rejuvenators help restore the balance between the asphaltenes and maltenes, by adding more maltenes and/or improving the dispersion of asphaltenes. Current rejuvenators that are available in the market are based on several materials including petroleum-based aromatic extracts, distilled tall oil, and other natural oils (i.e., organic oils). Bio-based rejuvenators have proven to be a better and safer alternative to petroleum-based rejuvenators containing aromatic compounds. This research introduces a soybean-derived rejuvenator which is used to enhance the low temperature and fatigue properties of asphalt binders. During the first phase of the research, the effect of the rejuvenator is assessed by blending it with a neat PG58-28 and a polymer modified PG64-28 binders. Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR) and Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR) tests are conducted to characterize the rheological properties of the rejuvenated binders. Temperature-frequency sweeps are conducted and complex shear modulus curves are constructed to compare between the control and the rejuvenated binders. Dynamic modulus specimens are made using the rejuvenated PG58-28 and PG64-28 binders. The impact of the rejuvenator on both the dynamic modulus and phase angles is studied using master curves. A comprehensive statistical analysis using split-plot repeated measures (SPRM) is conducted to reveal statistical differences between the performance of the rejuvenator in both types of binders. The preliminary results indicate that the soybean-derived rejuvenator was successful at lowering both the high and low critical temperatures of both types of binders. The statistical analysis revealed that the extent of modification brought about by the rejuvenator was dependent on the binder type. The results of the dynamic modulus testing showed a consistent reduction in the dynamic modulus values and an increase in the phase angles with the use of the rejuvenator. A Fourier-transform Infrared study (FTIR) performed on the rejuvenated binders indicated that their aging behavior was similar to that of the control binders, indicating that the rejuvenator did not adversely impact the durability of the binders. In the second phase of this research, a rejuvenated PG58-28 binders was blended with an extracted reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) binder. The fatigue behavior of the rejuvenated RAP binder is evaluated using linear amplitude sweep (LAS) testing. A significant increase in the fatigue life, particularly at low temperatures and increasing shear rate, is noted with the use of the rejuvenator. The rejuvenator was successful in lowering the performance grade of the stiff aged RAP binder to acceptable ranges. 100% RAP mixtures made and compacted into dynamic modulus and disk-compact tension (DCT) specimens were made using the neat PG58-28 and rejuvenated PG58-28 binders. The DCT specimens containing the rejuvenator showed higher fracture energy at a test temperature of -6oC which indicates better thermal cracking resistance. To assess the effect of blending efficiency, additional DCT specimens were prepared using extracted RAP binder blended with the rejuvenated PG58-28 binder. The RAP/rejuvenated PG58-28 blend was then remixed with the extracted RAP aggregate to simulate full blending. The DCT specimens prepared as such yielded even higher fracture energies indicating the significance of proper blending. The thermal stability of the rejuvenated RAP binder was verified using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). The mass loss due to thermal decomposition of the rejuvenated RAP binder was similar to that of the control binder. A study of the evolved gases using FTIR showed that the rate of mass loss of the rejuvenator can be inferred by comparing the FTIR spectra at different times

Evaluation of Extension Training Program on Small-Scale Poultry and Rabbit Production Projects at Alexandria Governorate, Egypt

Aims: This study was undertaken to measure the efficacy of an extension training program associated with small-scale poultry and rabbit production projects in Alexandria Governorate, Egypt. Study Design: The study was applied using two levels of the Donald L Kirkpatrick model through Action Research approach. The presented content of training program to trainees included important knowledge and skills of three topics which are broilers, ducks and rabbits to success small-scale production projects. Place and Duration of Study: 52 trainees were considered as a purposive sample, who attended all sessions of the extension training program in the agricultural administration at Khurshid, Alexandria Governorate, during April 2018. Methodology: A structured questionnaire was designed to collect data from participants before and after implementation of the training program to measure approval level of trainees toward the training program elements and their knowledge and skills level. Results: The results revealed that majority (61.53%) of trainees had medium level of acceptance towards the extension training program components. Consequently, there was a significant improvement in the knowledge and skills levels of trainees after executing the extension program concerning broilers, ducks and rabbits production for promoting small- scale production projects. Findings also showed that deficiency of knowledge and experience related to poultry production, insufficient extension training programs, unavailability of proper site for establishing the project and getting its licenses, non-provision of capital and lack of veterinary services, in that order, were the most severe constraints of trainees affecting poultry production projects. Conclusion: This training program succeeded by increasing and improving the knowledge and skills of participants regarding poultry and rabbits production, which reflect on encouraging them to establish such income-raising projects

Tryptophan for the sleeping disorder and mental symptom of new-type drug dependence: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

New-type drugs are popular with adolescents and could lead to psychiatry disorders, but no medications have been proven to be effective for these disorders of new-type drug dependence. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of tryptophan on sleeping disorders and mental symptoms in detoxified individuals with new-type drug dependence. This randomized, placebo controlled trial included 80 detoxified individuals with new-type drug dependence, recruited successively from a Compulsory Residential Drug Abstinence Institution in Wuhan, China, from April 2012 to November 2012. Eligible participants were randomly allocated to be treated with tryptophan (1000mg/day, n=40) or placebo (n=40) for two weeks. The sleeping and mental symptoms were assessed using Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS) and Symptom Check-List-90 (SCL-90) at baseline and two weeks. Results were analyzed according to the “intention-to-treat” approach. Forty-five participants completed the two-week study, 24 in the tryptophan group and 21 in the placebo group. There were no statistically significant differences in baseline characteristics between groups and the treatment adherence was similar between groups. The reduction in the Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS) score in the tryptophan group was significantly greater than that in the placebo group (P=0.017). However, no significant differences were found in Symptom Check-List-90 (SCL-90) scores (either by individual dimension or the overall score) between groups (all P>0.05). The frequency of adverse events were similar and no serious adverse events were reported during the study. Tryptophan was unlikely to be effective for mental symptoms, but could alleviate sleep disorders in short term among detoxified individuals with new-type drug dependence. Future large scale trials are required to confirm findings from this study

Evaluating the Moisture Susceptibility of Asphalt Mixes in Oklahoma

Moisture-induced damage can be detrimental to asphalt pavements. The modified Lottman approach (AASHTO T 283) is used to evaluate the stripping susceptibility of mixtures in Oklahoma. There are concerns about the ability of the AASHTO 283 to predict moisture damage in the field. In this study, the AASHTO T 283, the moisture-induced stress tester (MiST), and the Hamburg wheel tracking (HWT) test are used to evaluate the moisture susceptibility of mixes prepared using different gradations, local aggregate sources, and binders sampled from different refineries in Oklahoma. The mixes were also tested for cracking and rutting using the indirect tensile asphalt cracking test (IDEAL-CT) and the HWT test, respectively. The results indicate that no direct correlation can be established between the different moisture sensitivity tests since they involve different failure mechanisms. The HWT test did not provide a good measure of the moisture susceptibility of mixes containing limestone aggregate, with low insoluble residue, due to their weak aggregate structure causing premature failure in rutting and early stripping. It was also shown that there was a correlation between the tensile strength ratio (TSR) from the MiST and the percentage change in volume, however, the MiST did not appear to result in a notable reduction in tensile strength in some cases where the TSR was either close to or higher than one. The binder grade appeared to be the most significant factor in the determination of the cracking resistance of the mix, i.e., cracking tolerance index (CTindex), while other factors such as the aggregate gradation, aggregate type, and binder content had a lesser effect on the CTindex. The binder grade had the most effect on the post-peak slope at 75% peak load while the gradation and the aggregate type had the most effect on the fracture energy and displacement at 75% peak load

An optimised assay for quantitative, high-throughput analysis of polysialyltransferase activity

YesThe polysialyltransferases are biologically important glycosyltransferase enzymes responsible for the biosynthesis of polysialic acid, a carbohydrate polymer that plays a critical role in the progression of several diseases, notably cancer. Having improved the chemical synthesis and purification of the fluorescently-labelled DMB-DP3 acceptor, we report optimisation and validation of a highly sensitive cell-free high-throughput HPLC-based assay for assessment of human polysialyltransferase activity

Backyard Chicken Production Skills of Rural Women in Yucatán, México

Aims: The study was conducted to identify the skills level of backyard chicken production practices used by rural women in Yucatan, Mexico. Study Design: A questionnaire was used to collect data from the chicken owners, the dependent variable in this study was the skills level of chicken production practices. Place and Duration of Study: 204 women raising backyard chickens were drawn in the four selected villages in the Peninsula of Yucatán, between May and August 2013. Methodology: A structured questionnaires were designed to measure the skills level of women regarding their chicken production practices (feeding, housing, health care, management and purpose of production). This approach was analytical study among the studied villages. Results: The results showed that the majority of the respondents (76%) had medium and low skill levels regarding production practices, meanwhile, a small proportion of women can be categorized in the high skill level (24%). There were no significant differences (P = .59) for production practices among the villages. Findings also showed that low economical sources, high feed cost, diseases, unavailability of training programs, unawareness by ethno-veterinary treatments, insufficient of technologies /inputs and extension services, in that order, were the most severe constraints affecting production practices. Conclusion: The study concluded the medium skills level of backyard chicken production practices for rural women in the selected villages

Brain structural changes and neuropsychological impairments in male polydipsic schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: Polydipsia frequently occurs in schizophrenia patients. The excessive water loading in polydipsia occasionally induces a hyponatremic state and leads to water intoxication. Whether polydipsia in schizophrenic patients correlates with neuropsychological impairments or structural brain changes is not clear and remains controversial. METHODS: Eight polydipsic schizophrenia patients, eight nonpolydipsic schizophrenia patients, and eight healthy controls were recruited. All subjects underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and neuropsychological testing. Structural abnormalities were analyzed using a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) approach, and patients’ neuropsychological function was assessed using the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia, Japanese version (BACS-J). RESULTS: No significant differences were found between the two patient groups with respect to the clinical characteristics. Compared with healthy controls, polydipsic patients showed widespread brain volume reduction and neuropsychological impairment. Furthermore, the left insula was significantly reduced in polydipsic patients compared with nonpolydipsic patients. These nonpolydipsic patients performed intermediate to the other two groups in the neuropsychological function test. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible that polydipsia or the secondary hyponatremia might induce left insula volume reduction. Furthermore, this structural brain change may indirectly induce more severe neuropsychological impairments in polydipsic patients. Thus, we suggest that insula abnormalities might contribute to the pathophysiology of polydipsic patients

An overview of 2-Styrylchromones: natural occurrence, synthesis, reactivity and biological properties

2-Styrylchromones are a small class of oxygen-containing heterocycles. Despite their sparse occurrence in nature, several synthetic approaches have been developed in order to synthesize a large variety of derivatives, possessing different substituents in different positions of the main core. They are also versatile building blocks in the synthesis of new heterocyclic systems and important intermediates in the search for bioactive compounds. It is our intention in this review to give a general overview on the natural occurrence, synthesis, reactivity and biological properties of 2-styrylchromones, which were published up until 2016.Thanks are due to the Instituto Politécnico de Bragança and also to the University of Aveiro and the Formación en Centros de Trabajo, Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (FCT, MEC) for the financial support of the QOPNA research unit (FCT UID/QUI/ 00062/2013) through national funds and, where applicable, cofinanced by the Fundo Europeu De Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER), within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement. Thanks are also due to the Portuguese NMR Network.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio