Variability and uncertainty in empirical ground-motion prediction for probabilistic hazard and risk analyses

© The Author(s) 2015.The terms aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty mean different things to people who routinely use them within the fields of seismic hazard and risk analysis. This state is not helped by the repetition of loosely framed generic definitions that actually inaccurate. The present paper takes a closer look at the components of total uncertainty that contribute to ground-motion modelling in hazard and risk applications. The sources and nature of uncertainty are discussed and it is shown that the common approach to deciding what should be included within hazard and risk integrals and what should be pushed into logic tree formulations warrants reconsideration. In addition, it is shown that current approaches to the generation of random fields of ground motions for spatial risk analyses are incorrect and a more appropriate framework is presented

A population-based case-control study on social factors and risk of testicular germ cell tumours

Objectives Incidence rates for testicular cancer have risen over the last few decades. Findings of an association between the risk of testicular cancer and social factors are controversial. The association of testicular cancer and different indicators of social factors were examined in this study.<p></p> Design Case–control study.<p></p> Setting Population-based multicentre study in four German regions (city states Bremen and Hamburg, the Saarland region and the city of Essen).<p></p> Participants The study included 797 control participants and 266 participants newly diagnosed with testicular cancer of which 167 cases were classified as seminoma and 99 as non-seminoma. The age of study participants ranged from 15 to 69 years.<p></p> Methods Social position was classified by educational attainment level, posteducational training, occupational sectors according to Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarrero (EGP) and the socioeconomic status (SES) on the basis of the International SocioEconomic Index of occupational status (ISEI). ORs and corresponding 95% CIs (95% CIs) were calculated for the whole study sample and for seminoma and non-seminoma separately.<p></p> Results Testicular cancer risk was modestly increased among participants with an apprenticeship (OR=1.7 (95% CI 1.0 to 2.8)) or a university degree (OR=1.6 (95% CI 0.9 to 2.8)) relative to those whose education was limited to school. Analysis of occupational sectors revealed an excess risk for farmers and farm-related occupations. No clear trend was observed for the analyses according to the ISEI-scale.<p></p> Conclusions Social factors based on occupational measures were not a risk factor for testicular cancer in this study. The elevated risk in farmers and farm-related occupations warrants further research including analysis of occupational exposures.<p></p&gt

Technology requirements for post-1985 communications satellites

The technical and functional requirements for commercial communication satellites are discussed. The need for providing quality service at an acceptable cost is emphasized. Specialized services are postulated in a needs model which forecasts future demands. This needs model is based upon 322 separately identified needs for long distance communication. It is shown that the 1985 demand for satellite communication service for a domestic region such as the United States, and surrounding sea and air lanes, may require on the order of 100,000 MHz of bandwith. This level of demand can be met by means of the presently allocated bandwidths and developing some key technologies. Suggested improvements include: (1) improving antennas so that high speed switching will be possible; (2) development of solid state transponders for 12 GHz and possibly higher frequencies; (3) development of switched or steered beam antennas with 10 db or higher gain for aircraft; and (4) continued development of improved video channel compression techniques and hardware

Technology requirements for communication satellites in the 1980's

The key technology requirements are defined for meeting the forecasted demands for communication satellite services in the 1985 to 1995 time frame. Evaluation is made of needs for services and technical and functional requirements for providing services. The future growth capabilities of the terrestrial telephone network, cable television, and satellite networks are forecasted. The impact of spacecraft technology and booster performance and costs upon communication satellite costs are analyzed. Systems analysis techniques are used to determine functional requirements and the sensitivities of technology improvements for reducing the costs of meeting requirements. Recommended development plans and funding levels are presented, as well as the possible cost saving for communications satellites in the post 1985 era

Redesign of the Extravehicular Mobility Unit Airlock Cooling Loop Recovery Assembly

During EVA (Extravehicular Activity) 23 aboard the ISS (International Space Station) on 07/16/2013 an episode of water in the EMU (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) helmet occurred, necessitating a termination of the EVA (Extravehicular Activity) shortly after it began. The root cause of the failure was determined to be ground-processing short-comings of the ALCLR (Airlock Cooling Loop Recovery) Ion Beds which led to various levels of contaminants being introduced into the Ion Beds before they left the ground. The Ion Beds were thereafter used to scrub the failed EMU cooling water loop on-orbit during routine scrubbing operations. The root cause investigation identified several areas for improvement of the ALCLR Assembly which have since been initiated. Enhanced washing techniques for the ALCLR Ion Bed have been developed and implemented. On-orbit cooling water conductivity and pH analysis capability to allow the astronauts to monitor proper operation of the ALCLR Ion Bed during scrubbing operation is being investigation. A simplified means to acquire on-orbit EMU cooling water samples have been designed. Finally, an inherently cleaner organic adsorbent to replace the current lignite-based activated carbon, and a non-separable replacement for the separable mixed ion exchange resin are undergoing evaluation. These efforts are undertaken to enhance the performance and reduce the risk associated with operations to ensure the long-term health of the EMU cooling water circuit

The Human Touch of Relief Printing Aesthetics using Digital Tools

Graduate Creative and Artisti

Single Molecule Conformational Memory Extraction: P5ab RNA Hairpin

Extracting kinetic models from single molecule data is an important route to mechanistic insight in biophysics, chemistry, and biology. Data collected from force spectroscopy can probe discrete hops of a single molecule between different conformational states. Model extraction from such data is a challenging inverse problem because single molecule data are noisy and rich in structure. Standard modeling methods normally assume (i) a prespecified number of discrete states and (ii) that transitions between states are Markovian. The data set is then fit to this predetermined model to find a handful of rates describing the transitions between states. We show that it is unnecessary to assume either (i) or (ii) and focus our analysis on the zipping/unzipping transitions of an RNA hairpin. The key is in starting with a very broad class of non-Markov models in order to let the data guide us toward the best model from this very broad class. Our method suggests that there exists a folding intermediate for the P5ab RNA hairpin whose zipping/unzipping is monitored by force spectroscopy experiments. This intermediate would not have been resolved if a Markov model had been assumed from the onset. We compare the merits of our method with those of others

Stakeholder Theory and Marketing: Moving from a Firm-Centric to a Societal Perspective

This essay is inspired by the ideas and research examined in the special section on “Stakeholder Marketing” of the Journal of Public Policy & Marketing in 2010. The authors argue that stakeholder marketing is slowly coalescing with the broader thinking that has occurred in the stakeholder management and ethics literature streams during the past quarter century. However, the predominant view of stakeholders that many marketers advocate is still primarily pragmatic and company centric. The position advanced herein is that stronger forms of stakeholder marketing that reflect more normative, macro/societal, and network-focused orientations are necessary. The authors briefly explain and justify these characteristics in the context of the growing “prosociety” and “proenvironment” perspectives—orientations that are also in keeping with the public policy focus of this journal. Under the “hard form” of stakeholder theory, which the authors endorse, marketing managers must realize that serving stakeholders sometimes requires sacrificing maximum profits to mitigate outcomes that would inflict major damage on other stakeholders, especially society