Estimation of subgraph density in noisy networks

While it is common practice in applied network analysis to report various standard network summary statistics, these numbers are rarely accompanied by uncertainty quantification. Yet any error inherent in the measurements underlying the construction of the network, or in the network construction procedure itself, necessarily must propagate to any summary statistics reported. Here we study the problem of estimating the density of an arbitrary subgraph, given a noisy version of some underlying network as data. Under a simple model of network error, we show that consistent estimation of such densities is impossible when the rates of error are unknown and only a single network is observed. Accordingly, we develop method-of-moment estimators of network subgraph densities and error rates for the case where a minimal number of network replicates are available. These estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal as the number of vertices increases to infinity. We also provide confidence intervals for quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates based on the asymptotic normality. To construct the confidence intervals, a new and non-standard bootstrap method is proposed to compute asymptotic variances, which is infeasible otherwise. We illustrate the proposed methods in the context of gene coexpression networks

Interstellar Simulations Using A Unified Microscopic-Macroscopic Monte Carlo Model with a full Gas-Grain Network including Bulk Diffusion in Ice Mantles

We have designed an improved algorithm that enables us to simulate the chemistry of cold dense interstellar clouds with a full gas-grain reaction network. The chemistry is treated by a unified microscopic-macroscopic Monte Carlo approach that includes photon penetration and bulk diffusion. To determine the significance of these two processes, we simulate the chemistry with three different models. In Model 1, we use an exponential treatment to follow how photons penetrate and photodissociate ice species throughout the grain mantle. Moreover, the products of photodissociation are allowed to diffuse via bulk diffusion and react within the ice mantle. Model 2 is similar to Model 1 but with a slower bulk diffusion rate. A reference Model 0, which only allows photodissociation reactions to occur on the top two layers, is also simulated. Photodesorption is assumed to occur from the top two layers in all three models. We found that the abundances of major stable species in grain mantles do not differ much among these three models, and the results of our simulation for the abundances of these species agree well with observations. Likewise, the abundances of gas-phase species in the three models do not vary. However, the abundances of radicals in grain mantles can differ by up to two orders of magnitude depending upon the degree of photon penetration and the bulk diffusion of photodissociation products. We also found that complex molecules can be formed at temperatures as low as 10 K in all three models.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

The Zika outbreak of the 21st century.

The Zika virus outbreak has captivated the attention of the global audience and information has spread rapidly and wildly through the internet and other media channels. This virus was first identified in 1947, when it was isolated from a sentinel rhesus monkey placed by British scientists working at the Yellow Fever Research Laboratory located in the Zika forest area of Uganda, hence its name, and is transmitted primarily by the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. The fact that the rhesus macaque is an Asian species being placed in an African forest brings to mind the possibility of rapid adaptation of the virus from an African to Asian species, an issue that has not been considered. Whether such adaptation has played any role in acquiring pathogenicity due to cross species transmission remains to be identified. The first human infection was described in Nigeria in 1954, with only scattered reports of about a dozen human infections identified over a 50-year period. It was not until 2007 that Zika virus raised its ugly head with infections noted in three-quarters of the population on the tiny island of Yap located between the Philippines and Papua New Guinea in the western Pacific Ocean, followed by a major outbreak in French Polynesia in 2013. The virus remained confined to a narrow equatorial band in Africa and Asia until 2014 when it began to spread eastward, first toward Oceania and then to South America. Since then, millions of infected individuals have been identified in Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, including 25 additional countries in the Americas. While the symptoms associated with Zika virus infection are generally mild, consisting of fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia and conjunctivitis, there have been reports of more severe reactions that are associated with neurological complications. In pregnant women, fetal neurological complications include brain damage and microcephaly, while in adults there have been several cases of virus-associated Guillain-Barre syndrome. The virus was until recently believed to only be transmitted via mosquitoes. But when the Zika virus was isolated from the semen specimens from a patient in Texas, this provided the basis for the recent report of possible sexual transmission of the Zika virus. Due to the neurological complications, various vectors for infection as well as the rapid spread throughout the globe, it has prompted the World Health Organization to issue a global health emergency. Various governmental organizations have recommended that pregnant women do not travel to countries where the virus is epidemic, and within the countries affected by the virus, recommendations were provided for women of childbearing age to delay pregnancy. The overall public health impact of these above findings highlights the need for a rapid but specific diagnostic test for blood banks worldwide to identify those infected and for the counseling of women who are pregnant or contemplating pregnancy. As of this date, there are neither commercially licensed diagnostic tests nor a vaccine. Because cross-reactivity of the Zika virus with dengue and Chikungunya virus is common, it may pose difficulty in being able to quickly develop such tests and vaccines. So far the most effective public health measures include controlling the mosquito populations via insecticides and preventing humans from direct exposure to mosquitoes

Airborne environmental injuries and human health.

The concept that the environment in which we live can have detrimental effects on our health has existed for centuries. Obvious examples of substances that can cause human diseases include infectious agents, poisons, chemicals and other noxious agents, drugs, and physical stimuli such as bright lights and loud sounds. Some less obvious agents can include allergens, nontangible agents such as colorless, odorless gases and aerosolized toxins. In recent decades, humans have developed various new materials and compounds. Additionally, we are now producing known compounds, and even naturally occurring substances, in vastly increased amounts. Many of these substances are generally believed to threaten the health of our environment. However, there is also a considerable amount of hype and exaggeration regarding some of these agents (e.g., mold) that is unsubstantiated. This article extensively reviews the data on a large number of airborne-related illnesses and attempted to place scientific reality in the context of clinical medicine