Wavelet analysis of the LF radio signals collected by the European VLF/LF network from July 2009 to April 2011

In 2008, a radio receiver that works in very low frequency (VLF; 20-60 kHz) and LF (150-300 kHz) bands was developed by an Italian factory. The receiver can monitor 10 frequencies distributed in these bands, with the measurement for each of them of the electric field intensity. Since 2009, to date, six of these radio receivers have been installed throughout Europe to establish a ‘European VLF/LF Network’. At present, two of these are into operation in Italy, and the remaining four are located in Greece, Turkey, Portugal and Romania. For the present study, the LF radio data collected over about two years were analysed. At first, the day-time data and the night-time data were separated for each radio signal. Taking into account that the LF signals are characterized by ground-wave and sky-wave propagation modes, the day-time data are related to the ground wave and the night-time data to the sky wave. In this framework, the effects of solar activity and storm activity were defined in the different trends. Then, the earthquakes with M ≥5.0 that occurred over the same period were selected, as those located in a 300-km radius around each receiver/transmitter and within the 5th Fresnel zone related to each transmitter-receiver path. Where possible, the wavelet analysis was applied on the time series of the radio signal intensity, and some anomalies related to previous earthquakes were revealed. Except for some doubt in one case, success appears to have been obtained in all of the cases related to the 300 km circles in for the ground waves and the sky waves. For the Fresnel cases, success in two cases and one failure were seen in analysing the sky waves. The failure occurred in August/September, and might be related to the disturbed conditions of the ionosphere in summer

Analisi della suscettibilità da frana a scala di bacino (Bacino del Fiume Arno, Toscana-Umbria, Italia)

In questa nota vengono presentati i metodi applicati e i risultati ottenuti in una recente analisi della pericolosità da frana, condotta sul territorio del Bacino del Fiume Arno nell’ambito di una convenzione tra l’Autorità di Bacino e il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell’Università di Firenze (2002-2005). Tutti i dati acquisiti, confluiti in una banca dati GIS, sono stati sintetizzati in carte tematiche e in una carta inventario delle frane. La sovrapposizione dei fattori predisponenti selezionati (pendenza, litologia, uso del suolo, curvatura di profilo e area drenata) ha permesso di definire le unità elementari per il trattamento statistico (Unità Territoriali Omogenee: UTO). La valutazione della pericolosità è stata estesa alle aree prive di movimenti franosi utilizzando metodi statistici multivariati implementati in Reti Neurali Artificiali. L’area di studio è stata suddivisa in cinque Macroaree morfologicamente e geologicamente omogenee: per ogni Macroarea, i predittori neurali sono stati addestrati su un opportuno sottoinsieme di dati, applicando poi i migliori all’intero data-set al fine di generare valori previsti dell’indice di suscettibilità per ogni UTO. Infine, i valori di uscita sono stati riclassificati in differenti livelli di pericolosità in base a criteri di soglia e validati per confronto con l’inventario. Una percentuale di area in frana compresa tra l’81 e il 96% risulta correttamente classificata dalla previsione nelle varie Macroare

Present status and preliminary results of the VLF/LF radio recording European network installed in 2009.

In January 2009 a European network of receivers able to measure the electric field intensity from various VLF/LF broadcasting stations located throughout Europe, was installed. Five new receivers constructed by an Italian enterprise have been delivered to Greece, Romania, Turkey and to the Italian team. The motivation of this effort is to study the possible connections between the preparatory phase of earthquakes and perturbations in the transmitted radio signals. The receivers can be reached via ftp and gsm mobile connection, thus allowing a real time data collection. We present here the status of the network and the various testing steps performed in order to achieve a correct set up. We show how antennas variations, receivers locations and changes of selected frequencies affect the performances of the whole network. After this necessary testing period, several LF/VLF radio signals are now simultaneously and continuously being sampled by the five receivers. As a preliminary result we inspect also specific cases in which an anomaly in the radio signals is clearly related to the transmitter or to the receiver (e.g. meteorological conditions around the sampling site). At a basic level, the analysis adopted consists in a simple statistical evaluation of the signals by comparing the instantaneous values to the trend of the signal

Anomalies Observed in VLF and LF Radio Signals on the Occasion of the Western Turkey Earthquake (Mw = 5.7) on May 19, 2011

VLF radio signals lie in the 10 - 60 kHz frequency band. These radio signals are used for worldwide navigation support, time signals and for military purposes. They are propagated in the earth-ionosphere wave-guide mode along great circle propagation paths. So, their propaga-tion is strongly affected by the ionosphere conditions. LF signals lie in 150 - 300 kHz frequency band. They are used for long way broadcasting by the few (this type of broadcasting is going into disuse) transmitters located in the world. These radio signals are characterized by the ground wave and the sky wave propagation modes [1]. The first generates a stable signal that propagates in the channel Earth-troposphere and is affected by the surface ground and troposphere condition. The second instead gives rise to a signal which varies greatly between day and night, and between summer and winter, and which propagates using the lower ionosphere as a reflector; its propagation is mainly affected by the ionosphere condi-tion, particularly in the zone located in the middle of the transmitter-receiver path. The propagation of the VLF/LF radio signals is affected by different factors such as the meteorological condition, the solar bursts and the geo-magnetic activity. At the same time, variations of some parameters in the ground, in the atmosphere and in the ionosphere occurring during the preparatory phase of earthquakes can produce disturbances in the above men-tioned signals. As already reported by many previous studies [2-18] the disturbances are classified as anoma-lies and different methods of analysis as the residual dA/ dP [15], the terminator time TT [9], the Wavelet spectra and the Principal Component Analysis have been used [6,7]. Here the analysis carried out on LF and VLF radio signals using three different methods on the occasion of a strong earthquake occurred recently in Turkey is pre-sented

Disturbances in groundwater chemical parameters related to seismic and volcanic activity in Kamchatka (Russia)

International audienceStarting from 1992 geochemical data are being collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the pH value and of the most common ions and gases in the groundwater in one deep well located in Petropavlovsk, the capital city of Kamchatka (Russia). On 1 January 1996 a strong eruption started from the Karymsky volcano, that is located about 100km far from the well, in the north-northeastern direction. At the same time, a large earthquake (M=6.9) occurred in the Karymsky area. On 5 December 1997 a very large earthquake (M=7.7) occurred offshore, at a distance of 350km from the well and towards the same direction. The analysis of the geochemical data shows clear variations in the raw temporal trends on both cases. For the first event, a clear premonitory phase appeared; for the second one, some pre-seismic variations could be revealed but permanent modifications of the chemistry of the water subsequent to the earthquake are very clear. In both cases the feature of the geochemical variations is consistent with an afflux of new water in the aquifer connected with the well and with an escape of the Carbon dioxide gas from the ground in different directions. A schematic model able to justify such a phenomenology and the connections of the geochemical variations with the previous tectonic activities is proposed

Retrospective analysis for detecting seismic precursors in groundwater argon content

We examined the groundwater Argon content data sampled from 1988 to 2001 at two wells in Kamchatka (Russia) and anomalous increases appeared clearly during June-July&nbsp;1996. On 21&nbsp;June, a shallow (1km) earthquake with <i>M</i>=7.1 occurred at a distance less than 250km from the wells and so the previous increases could be related to this earthquake and, in particular, could be considered premonitory anomalies. In order to support this raw interpretation, we analysed the data collected in details. At first we smoothed out the high frequency fluctuations arising from the errors in a single measurement. Next we considered the known external effects on the water of a well that are the slow tectonic re-adjustment processes, the meteorology and the gravity tides and we separated these effects applying band-pass filters to the Argon content raw trends. Then we identified the largest fluctuations in these trends applying the 3 σ criterion and we found three anomalies in a case and two anomalies in other case. Comparing the time occurrence of the anomalies at the two wells we found out that a coincidence exists only in the case of the premonitory anomalies we are studying. The simultaneous appearance of well definite anomalies in the residual trends of the same parameter at two different sites supports their meaning and the possibility that they are related to some large scale effect, as the occurrence of a strong earthquake. But, other earthquakes similar to the June&nbsp;1996 event took place during the Argon content measurements time and no anomaly appeared in this content. In the past, some of the authors of this paper studied the Helium content data collected in three natural springs of the Caucasus during seven years. A very similar result, that is the simultaneous appearance of clear premonitory anomalies only on the occasion of a strong (<i>M</i>=7.0) but shallow (2–4km) earthquake, was obtained. The correspondence with the case of the Caucasus validates the interpretation of the Kamchatkian anomalies as precursors

Inferential models: A framework for prior-free posterior probabilistic inference

Posterior probabilistic statistical inference without priors is an important but so far elusive goal. Fisher's fiducial inference, Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, and Bayesian inference with default priors are attempts to achieve this goal but, to date, none has given a completely satisfactory picture. This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic inference, based on inferential models (IMs), which not only provides data-dependent probabilistic measures of uncertainty about the unknown parameter, but does so with an automatic long-run frequency calibration property. The key to this new approach is the identification of an unobservable auxiliary variable associated with observable data and unknown parameter, and the prediction of this auxiliary variable with a random set before conditioning on data. Here we present a three-step IM construction, and prove a frequency-calibration property of the IM's belief function under mild conditions. A corresponding optimality theory is developed, which helps to resolve the non-uniqueness issue. Several examples are presented to illustrate this new approach.Comment: 29 pages with 3 figures. Main text is the same as the published version. Appendix B is an addition, not in the published version, that contains some corrections and extensions of two of the main theorem

A possible preseismic anomaly in the ground wave of a radio broadcasting (216 kHz) during July-August 1998 (Italy)

International audienceOn February 1996, a receiver able to measure the electric field strength of LF radio broadcastings, with a sampling frequency of ten minutes, was put into operation in a site (AS) located in central Italy. One of the broadcasting stations selected is MCO (f=216 kHz), located in southeast France, 518 km far from the receiver. The MCO data collected since February 1996 up to September 2004 were examined and, at first, the night time data and the day time data (in winter and summer) were separated. Then, the wavelet analysis on the night and day time data was applied. The main result of the analysis was the appearance of a very clear anomaly during summer (July?August) 1998, at day time and at night time. The anomaly is a strong exaltation of the signal components with period in the 25?40 days range. Theoretical calculations of electric field strength were made and the only way to justify this anomaly seems to be the occurrence of an increase of the ground wave propagation mode of the radio signal. Such an increase could have been produced by an increase of the ground conductivity and by modifications of some parameter of the troposphere, mainly the refractive index. On 15 August 1998 a seismic sequence started with 17 earthquakes (M=2.2?4.6) on the Reatini mountains, a seismogenic zone located 30 km far from the AS receiver along the path MCO-AS. In this paper, the possibility that the previous radio anomaly can be a precursor of this seismic sequence is proposed. </p

Cancer progression: a single cell perspective

Tumor tissues are constituted by a dynamic diversity of malignant and non-malignant cells, which shape a puzzling biological ecosystem affecting cancer biology and response to treatments. Over the course of the tumoral disease, cancer cells acquire genotypic and phenotypic changes, allowing them to improve cellular fitness and overcome environmental and treatment constraints. This progression is depicted by an evolutionary process in which single cells expand as a result of an interaction between single-cell changes and the lovelopments have made it possible to depict the development of cancer at the single-cell level, offering a novel method for understanding the biology of this complex disease. Here, we review those complex interactions from the perspective of single cells and introduce the concept of omics for single-cell studies. This review emphasizes the evolutionary dynamics that control cancer progression and the capacity of single cells to escape the local environment and colonize distant sites. We are assisting a rapid progression of studies carried out at the single-cell level, and we survey relevant single-cell technologies looking at multi-omics studies. These path for precision medicine in cancer