Correction: Erev, I. et al. a choice prediction competition for market entry games : an introduction

Ion Juvina found an error in our manuscript published in Games

New insights into the diverse electronic phases of a novel vanadium dioxide polymorph: A terahertz spectroscopy study

10.1038/srep09182Scientific Reports

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices From Experience and From Description

Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based on two experimental datasets: An estimation dataset, and a competition dataset. The studies that generated the two datasets used the same methods and subject pool, and examined decision problems randomly selected from the same distribution. After collecting the experimental data to be used for estimation, the organizers posted them on the Web, together with their fit with several baseline models, and challenged other researchers to compete to predict the results of the second (competition) set of experimental sessions. Fourteen teams responded to the challenge: the last seven authors of this paper are members of the winning teams. The results highlight the robustness of the difference between decisions from description and decisions from experience. The best predictions of decisions from descriptions were obtained with a stochastic variant of prospect theory assuming that the sensitivity to the weighted values decreases with the distance between the cumulative payoff functions. The best predictions of decisions from experience were obtained with models that assume reliance on small samples. Merits and limitations of the competition method are discussed.Economic

Characterizing the gamma-ray long-term variability of PKS 2155-304 with H.E.S.S. and Fermi-LAT

Studying the temporal variability of BL Lac objects at the highest energies provides unique insights into the extreme physical processes occurring in relativistic jets and in the vicinity of super-massive black holes. To this end, the long-term variability of the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304 is analyzed in the high (HE, 100 MeV 200 GeV) gamma-ray domain. Over the course of ~9 yr of H.E.S.S observations the VHE light curve in the quiescent state is consistent with a log-normal behavior. The VHE variability in this state is well described by flicker noise (power-spectral-density index {\ss}_VHE = 1.10 +0.10 -0.13) on time scales larger than one day. An analysis of 5.5 yr of HE Fermi LAT data gives consistent results ({\ss}_HE = 1.20 +0.21 -0.23, on time scales larger than 10 days) compatible with the VHE findings. The HE and VHE power spectral densities show a scale invariance across the probed time ranges. A direct linear correlation between the VHE and HE fluxes could neither be excluded nor firmly established. These long-term-variability properties are discussed and compared to the red noise behavior ({\ss} ~ 2) seen on shorter time scales during VHE-flaring states. The difference in power spectral noise behavior at VHE energies during quiescent and flaring states provides evidence that these states are influenced by different physical processes, while the compatibility of the HE and VHE long-term results is suggestive of a common physical link as it might be introduced by an underlying jet-disk connection.Comment: 11 pages, 16 figure

Spatio-temporal patterns of an anthrax outbreak in white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, and associated genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis

BACKGROUND: Anthrax, a soil-borne zoonosis caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in areas of North America with frequent outbreaks in west Texas. Despite a long history of study, pathogen transmission during natural outbreaks remains poorly understood. Here we combined case-level spatio-temporal analysis and high resolution genotyping to investigate anthrax transmission dynamics. Carcass locations from a single white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, outbreak were analyzed for spatial clustering using K-function analysis and directionality with trend surface analysis and the direction test. RESULTS: The directionalities were compared to results of high resolution genotyping. The results of the spatial clustering analyses, combined with deer movement data, suggest anthrax transmission events occur within limited spatial areas, with carcass locations occurring within the activity space of adjacent cases. The directionality of the outbreak paralleled adjacent dry river beds. Isolates from the outbreak were represented by a single genotype based on multiple locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA); four sub-genotypes were identified using single nucleotide repeat (SNR) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Areas of high transmission agreed spatially with areas of higher SNR genetic diversity; however, SNRs did not provide clear evidence of linear transmission. Overlap of case home ranges provides spatial and temporal support for localized transmission, which may include the role of necrophagous or hematophagous flies in outbreaks in this region. These results emphasize the need for active surveillance and prompt cleanup of anthrax carcasses to control anthrax both during outbreaks and between seasons. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12898-015-0054-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The Psychological and Neural Basis of Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a central element of prospect theory, the dominant theory of decision making under uncertainty for the past four decades, and refers to the overweighting of potential losses relative to equivalent gains, a critical determinant of risky decision making. Recent advances in affective and decision neuroscience have shed new light on the psychological and neurobiological mechanisms underlying loss aversion. Here, integrating disparate literatures from the level of neurotransmitters to subjective reports of emotion, we propose a novel neural and computational framework that links norepinephrine to loss aversion and identifies a distinct role for dopamine in risk taking for rewards. We also propose that loss aversion specifically relates to anticipated emotions and aspects of the immediate experience of realized gains and losses but not their long-term emotional consequences, highlighting an underappreciated temporal structure. Finally, we discuss challenges to loss aversion and the relevance of loss aversion to understanding psychiatric disorders. Refining models of loss aversion will have broad consequences for the science of decision making and for how we understand individual variation in economic preferences and psychological well-being across both healthy and psychiatric populations

Genotyping of Bacillus cereus Strains by Microarray-Based Resequencing

The ability to distinguish microbial pathogens from closely related but nonpathogenic strains is key to understanding the population biology of these organisms. In this regard, Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes inhalational anthrax, is of interest because it is closely related and often difficult to distinguish from other members of the B. cereus group that can cause diverse diseases. We employed custom-designed resequencing arrays (RAs) based on the genome sequence of Bacillus anthracis to generate 422 kb of genomic sequence from a panel of 41 Bacillus cereus sensu lato strains. Here we show that RAs represent a “one reaction” genotyping technology with the ability to discriminate between highly similar B. anthracis isolates and more divergent strains of the B. cereus s.l. Clade 1. Our data show that RAs can be an efficient genotyping technology for pre-screening the genetic diversity of large strain collections to selected the best candidates for whole genome sequencing

Global Genetic Population Structure of Bacillus anthracis

Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a disease of historical and current importance that is found throughout the world. The basis of its historical transmission is anecdotal and its true global population structure has remained largely cryptic. Seven diverse B. anthracis strains were whole-genome sequenced to identify rare single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), followed by phylogenetic reconstruction of these characters onto an evolutionary model. This analysis identified SNPs that define the major clonal lineages within the species. These SNPs, in concert with 15 variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) markers, were used to subtype a collection of 1,033 B. anthracis isolates from 42 countries to create an extensive genotype data set. These analyses subdivided the isolates into three previously recognized major lineages (A, B, and C), with further subdivision into 12 clonal sub-lineages or sub-groups and, finally, 221 unique MLVA15 genotypes. This rare genomic variation was used to document the evolutionary progression of B. anthracis and to establish global patterns of diversity. Isolates in the A lineage are widely dispersed globally, whereas the B and C lineages occur on more restricted spatial scales. Molecular clock models based upon genome-wide synonymous substitutions indicate there was a massive radiation of the A lineage that occurred in the mid-Holocene (3,064–6,127 ybp). On more recent temporal scales, the global population structure of B. anthracis reflects colonial-era importation of specific genotypes from the Old World into the New World, as well as the repeated industrial importation of diverse genotypes into developed countries via spore-contaminated animal products. These findings indicate humans have played an important role in the evolution of anthrax by increasing the proliferation and dispersal of this now global disease. Finally, the value of global genotypic analysis for investigating bioterrorist-mediated outbreaks of anthrax is demonstrated

Genomic and SNP Analyses Demonstrate a Distant Separation of the Hospital and Community-Associated Clades of Enterococcus faecium

Recent studies have pointed to the existence of two subpopulations of Enterococcus faecium, one containing primarily commensal/community-associated (CA) strains and one that contains most clinical or hospital-associated (HA) strains, including those classified by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) as belonging to the CC17 group. The HA subpopulation more frequently has IS16, pathogenicity island(s), and plasmids or genes associated with antibiotic resistance, colonization, and/or virulence. Supporting the two clades concept, we previously found a 3–10% difference between four genes from HA-clade strains vs. CA-clade strains, including 5% difference between pbp5-R of ampicillin-resistant, HA strains and pbp5-S of ampicillin-sensitive, CA strains. To further investigate the core genome of these subpopulations, we studied 100 genes from 21 E. faecium genome sequences; our analyses of concatenated sequences, SNPs, and individual genes all identified two distinct groups. With the concatenated sequence, HA-clade strains differed by 0–1% from one another while CA clade strains differed from each other by 0–1.1%, with 3.5–4.2% difference between the two clades. While many strains had a few genes that grouped in one clade with most of their genes in the other clade, one strain had 28% of its genes in the CA clade and 72% in the HA clade, consistent with the predicted role of recombination in the evolution of E. faecium. Using estimates for Escherichia coli, molecular clock calculations using sSNP analysis indicate that these two clades may have diverged ≥1 million years ago or, using the higher mutation rate for Bacillus anthracis, ∼300,000 years ago. These data confirm the existence of two clades of E. faecium and show that the differences between the HA and CA clades occur at the core genomic level and long preceded the modern antibiotic era

New and unusual basidiomycetes with comments on hyphal and spore wall reactions with Melzer's solution

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43285/1/11046_2005_Article_BF02049566.pd