Keynesian and schumpeterian efficiency in a BOP-constrained growth model

The paper aims to contribute to the debate on specialization and growth in two forms. Firstly, it develops a North-South model in which the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and imports in the South (that gives the rate of growth compatible with external equilibrium) depends on the Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency of the pattern of specialization, as defined by Dosi et al (1990). The model draws on key insights of the technology gap literature to discuss how these efficiencies are related to the dynamics of technological learning. Secondly, the model is tested including the variables Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a Keynesian growth regression. Several estimation procedures are used to test the model, among which Finite Mixture Estimation, which allows for estimating the parameters for homogenous groups of countries.Schumpeterian efficiency, keynesian efficiency, balance-of-payments-constrained growth, Thirlwall's Law

Export to international markets with different degrees of development: a study with microdata from Argentine firms in the recent period

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a penetração de empresas argentinas da indústria de transformação a mercados externos com diferentes graus de desenvolvimento. Para isto, utiliza-se a base de dados ENDEI, onde constam informações de emprego e atividades de inovação através de uma amostra estratificada (setor e tamanho) de 3.691 firmas, constituindo a base de dados de comércio exterior da Aduana Argentina.  Dois modelos são estimados: um modelo probit ordenado, em que a ordenação se associa ao número e complexidade dos mercados nos quais as empresas atuam e um modelo de diversificação da exportação, considerando a distribuição de Poisson para o número de produtos exportados. Os resultados apontam que empresas que exportam para mercados de maior complexidade ou tem uma pauta exportadora mais diversificada, em termo de produtos, apresentam produção mais intensiva em tecnologia e em trabalho qualificado, participam ativamente de redes de cooperação com instituições públicas e privadas e importam insumos e novas tecnologias de outros países.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the entry of Argentinian industry firms to external markets with different degrees of development. For this, the ENDEI database is used, which has employment and innovation activities information, of a sector and size stratified sample of 3,691 firms, as well as the foreign trade database of Argentinian Customs. Two models are estimated: an ordered probit model, in which ordering is associated with the number and complexity of markets in which firms operate and a model of export diversification, considering Poisson distribution for the number of exported products. The results show that firms that export to markets of greater complexity or have a more diversified export in terms of products, show more intensive production in technology and skilled labor, are more strongly involved in cooperation networks with public and private institutions and import inputs and new technologies from other countries

Estrutura das exportações e crescimento econômico: uma análise empírica, 1985-2003

O artigo discute empiricamente a ideia de que a estrutura das exportações seja determinante para o crescimento econômico. A influência da estrutura das exportações sobre a taxa de crescimento é abordada no contexto de um modelo com restrição externa. Para testar essa relação, as exportações foram divididas em dois grupos: a) dinâmicas sob uma perspectiva schumpeteriana (que incluem setores de alta tecnologia) e b) dinâmicas sob uma perspectiva keynesiana (que incluem setores para os quais o crescimento da demanda internacional é superior à média). A hipótese-chave é que, quando os países nos quais os setores com eficiências keynesiana e schumpeteriana têm maior peso nas exportações, esses atingem taxas mais elevadas de crescimento. Os resultados mostram que os dois tipos de eficiência têm um efeito positivo e significativo, sendo mais forte o impacto da eficiência schumpeteriana.Abstract Export structure and economic growth: a Export structure and economic growth: an empirical mpirical mpirical analysis, 1985 nalysis, 1985 nalysis, 1985-2003 The paper discusses the idea that the quality of exports matters for economic growth. The influence of the structure of exports on the rates of economic growth is discussed within the context of a growth model with external constraints. To test the relationship between exports and growth, exports are divided in two groups: a) dynamic from a Schumpeterian perspective (high-tech sectors) and b) dynamic from a Keynesian perspective (international demand grows at higher rates than the average). The key hypothesis is that countries whose total exports have higher shares of sectors with Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency will grow faster. The empirical results are consistent with this hypothesis. In addition, the results suggest that Schumpeterian efficiency tends to have a stronger impact on growth than Keynesian efficiency.Key words: Schumpeterian efficiency. Keynesian efficiency. Thirlwall’s law. Economic growth. Export

Convergência, para onde? Uma análise da dinâmica de distribuição de renda per capita a partir do modelo de misturas finitas

Diferentes teorias de crescimento implicam em diferentes padrões de distribuição de níveis de renda per capita entre as economias mundiais. A validação empírica de tais teorias pressupõe propriedades nos processos estocásticos nem sempre verificadas nos exercícios empíricos tradicionais de regressões de crescimento. Este trabalho busca estas propriedades e discute a existência de clubes de renda na economia mundial analisando a distribuição da renda per capita em 134 países durante o período 1970-2003. As conclusões mostram uma estratificação em três grupos, com path dependence sem lock in, isto é existe uma alta probabilidade de permanência do status quo.Different growth theories implies in different patterns of per capita income distribution between countries. The empirical validation to these theories assumes some non-commonly verified stochastic processes properties. This paper seeks for theseis properties and discusses the existence of per capita income clubs in the world economy by analyzing the distribution of per capita income in 134 countries during the period 1970-2003. The conclusions show stratification in three groups, with path dependence and no lock in, that is, there is a high probability of maintenance of the status quo, while there exists a small probability of migration between groups

Export complexity, industrial complexity and regional economic growth in Brazil

Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few -- mainly developed urban places -- have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

Did Industrial and Export Complexity Drive Regional Economic Growth in Brazil?

Cardoso, B-H. F., Catela, E. Y. D. S., Viegas, G., Pinheiro, F. L., & Hartmann, D. (2024). Did Industrial and Export Complexity Drive Regional Economic Growth in Brazil? PLoS ONE, 19(12), 1-19. Article e0313945. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2312.07469, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313945 --- BFC would like to express his gratitude for the financial support of the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) – Finance Code 001, and DH for the support of CNPq (406943/ 2021-4 and 315441/2021-6). F.L.P. acknowledges the financial support provided by FCT Portugal under the project UIDB/04152/2020 -- Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC). We are grateful for valuable comments of Diogo Ferraz, Marcelo Arend, Pablo Bittencourt, NECODE members, and participants at the Anpec Sul conference and research seminars at UFSC and FIESC in 2023Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil’s formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few—mainly developed urban places—have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region’s industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil’s knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth. This study demonstrates that industrial complexity, which accounts for all employment sectors, provides a more accurate basis for designing effective and inclusive industrial policies in emerging economies like Brazil, compared to export-based complexity.publishersversionpublishe