The Sensitivity of US Wildfire Occurrence to Pre-Season Soil Moisture Conditions Across Ecosystems

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the US Forest Service"TM"s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25-degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This result is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship's utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability

The Sensitivity of US Wildfire Occurrence to Pre-Season Soil Moisture Conditions Across Ecosystems

It is well accepted that drought and low moisture conditions are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state has been challenging due to a lack of soil moisture observations at an appropriate spatial scale. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASAs Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined in a predictive algorithm with the US Forest Services Fire-Occurrence Database. We estimate a relationship between historic surface moisture and wildfire occurrence to produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area at 0.25-degree resolution for the contiguous United States by land-cover classification. Cross-validation indicates increased frequency of smaller fires when the months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This demonstrates that assimilated GRACE data holds information that could aid national-scale fire potential assessments for early decision-support

Effects of undercutting and sliding on calving: a global approach applied to Kronebreen, Svalbard

In this paper, we study the effects of basal friction, sub-aqueous undercutting and glacier geometry on the calving process by combining six different models in an offline-coupled workflow: a continuum–mechanical ice flow model (Elmer/Ice), a climatic mass balance model, a simple subglacial hydrology model, a plume model, an undercutting model and a discrete particle model to investigate fracture dynamics (Helsinki Discrete Element Model, HiDEM). We demonstrate the feasibility of reproducing the observed calving retreat at the front of Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, during a melt season by using the output from the first five models as input to HiDEM. Basal sliding and glacier motion are addressed using Elmer/Ice, while calving is modelled by HiDEM. A hydrology model calculates subglacial drainage paths and indicates two main outlets with different discharges. Depending on the discharge, the plume model computes frontal melt rates, which are iteratively projected to the actual front of the glacier at subglacial discharge locations. This produces undercutting of different sizes, as melt is concentrated close to the surface for high discharge and is more diffuse for low discharge. By testing different configurations, we show that undercutting plays a key role in glacier retreat and is necessary to reproduce observed retreat in the vicinity of the discharge locations during the melting season. Calving rates are also influenced by basal friction, through its effects on near-terminus strain rates and ice velocity

Automated Sentinel-1 ice type mapping and in-situ validation during the CIRFA-22 cruise

We present a fully-automated workflow to map sea ice types from Sentinel-1 data and transfer the results in near real-time to the research vessel Kronprins Haakon (KPH) in order to support tactical navigation and decision-making during a research cruise conducted towards Belgica Bank in April and May 2022. We used overlapping SAR and optical imagery to train a pixel-wise classifier for the required season and region, and implemented a processing chain with the Norwegian Ice Service at MET Norway that automatically classifies all Sentinel-1 images covering the area of interest. During the cruise, classification results were available on KPH within hours after image acquisition, which is significantly faster than manually produced ice charts. We evaluate the results both quantitatively, based on manually selected validation regions, and qualitatively in comparison to in-situ observations and photographs. Our findings show that open water, level ice, and deformed ice are classified with high accuracy, while young ice remains challenging due to its variable small-scale surface roughness. This work presents one of the first attempts to transfer automated ice type classification results into the field in near real-time and contributes to bridging the gap between research and operations in automated sea ice mapping

Airglow and Aurorae at Dome A, Antarctica

Despite the absence of artificial light pollution at Antarctic plateau sites such as Dome A, other factors such as airglow, aurorae, and extended periods of twilight have the potential to adversely affect optical observations. We present a statistical analysis of the airglow and aurorae at Dome A using spectroscopic data from Nigel, an optical/near-IR spectrometer operating in the 300–850 nm range. These data complement photometric images from Gattini, a wide-field (90°) CCD camera with B, V, and R filters, allowing the background sky brightness to be disentangled from the various airglow and auroral emission lines. The median auroral contribution to the B, V, and R photometric bands is found to be 22.9, 23.4, and 23.0 mag arcsec^(-2), respectively. Auroral emissions most frequently occur between 10–23 hr local time, when up to 50% of observations are above airglow-level intensities. While infrequent, the strongest emissions detected occurred in the hours just prior to magnetic midnight. We are also able to quantify the amount of annual dark time available as a function of wavelength, as well as in the standard BVR photometric bands. On average, twilight ends when the Sun reaches a zenith distance of 102.6°

The Categorical Deviation Effect May Be Underpinned by Attentional Capture: Preliminary Evidence from the Incidental Recognition of Distracters

The performance of a visual focal task is appreciably disrupted by an unexpected change (or deviation) in the properties of a task irrelevant auditory background. A vast amount of evidence suggests that a change in the acoustic properties of sound disrupts performance via attentional capture. However, an emerging body of evidence suggests that the disruption of task performance by a change in semantic category within a stream of sounds does not behave the same and is therefore not produced by attentional capture. This preliminary study aimed to further investigate whether the disruption produced by a categorical deviant was underpinned by attentional capture. In a single experiment, participants were presented with an irrelevant sound stream while they memorized a categorized list for free recall. We examined whether free recall performance was disrupted by an unexpected change in category within the sound and later investigated, via a surprise recognition test, whether participants had superior memory for deviant items as compared to items from the same positions in control sequences. Results revealed that the categorical deviation effect manifested in poorer free recall performance. Additionally, post-study, participants demonstrated better recognition memory for deviant items compared to control items. On the assumption that explicit recognition requires attentional encoding of deviant items, our results yield evidence that the categorical deviation effect may indeed be produced via attentional capture

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good