Fifty years of Econometrics Research in Spain: Doctoral Dissertations, international publications and other contributions, 1956-2006

This paper presents a first part in English and a second part in Spanish, with a summary of contributions to Econometrics research in Spain for the period 1956-2006. We focus on the contributions by the pioneers and their disciples in universities all over Spain, accordingly to the information available at several registers and particularly to their supervising activities of Doctoral Dissertations, which have been of great importance to increase the level and interest of teaching and research in Spanish Universities. The paper is open to updates as soon as we get more information relevant to this goal. We include a reference to Spanish publications in English or in other languages, particularly focused on Econometrics research. Este trabajo presenta una recopilación novedosa de datos relevantes de la historia de la Econometría en España, con especial referencia a los éxitos logrados en las últimas décadas de dicho siglo veinte y en los primeros años del siglo veintiuno. Está escrito como homenaje a los profesores que fueron pioneros de esta materia en España, a los que la mayoría de los investigadores econométricos debemos gratitud como discípulos directos o indirectos, y a todos los que han contribuido a impulsar el interés y calidad de la docencia y de la investigación econométrica. Presentamos un amplio panorama de las tesis doctorales de esta especialidad leídas en las universidades españolas, agrupadas por su director, y también hacemos referencia a otras publicaciones, destacando la alta posición que la Econometría española ha alcanzado a nivel europeo e internacional.

Industry and Foreign Trade in India, China and OECD countries: an analysis of causality, 1960-2002

We analyse causality relationships between industry and foreign trade in three major areas of the world economy: India, China and OECD countries for the period 1960-2002, and found that the effect of imports is usually positive and significant to favour industrial and non-industrial development, from a mixed approach to economic growth which has into account demand and supply sides. We use several approaches to causality, including Granger´s bivariate and trivariate tests and analysis of contemporaneous relationships.Foreign Trade, Causality, India, China, OECD

Economic Development of African and Asia-Pacific Areas in 1951-99

During the second half of the 20th century Asia as a whole experienced a much higher increase in production by inhabitant than Africa, due to several factors which caused improvements in industrial development and moderation in the rates of population growth. We present a comparison, at area level, of economic growth, education, fertility and production by sector in large areas of Africa and Asia and South-Pacific, analysing the main differences in economic development among these areas during the 20th century, with special reference to the period 1980-99.

The QoSxLabel: a quality of service cross layer label

A quality of service cross layer label

Econometric Models of Demand and Supply of Agriculture in Spain, France, Japan and The USA, 1964-99: An Analysis Of Interdependence

We compare two dynamic models for explaining the evolution of Agriculture production and relative prices during the second half of the 20th century in four OECD countries, and we find more support for the recursive system than for the interdependent model. The important increases in production in the USA, promoted by incentives to boost crops, have also influenced the technological diffusion in other countries with similar results of increases in production by territorial unity. This has implied a growth of supply higher than the growth of demand, for a given level of real prices, and thus it has provoked a diminution in this last variable. Agriculture production plays an important role in economic growth, not only through external trade, which favours a diminution of imports and an increase of exports, but also through an increase of production in non-agrarian sectors from demand and supply sides, so we conclude that the sector should continue to receive aids to compensate for the fall in prices and maintain real income from farm and related activities.

Effects of the Integration of Mexico into NAFTA on Trade, Industry, Employment and Economic Growth

We present a comparison of economic development in Mexico with some OECD countries (France, Spain and the USA) and Latin American countries (Brazil and Argentina) and we analyse the evolution of employment in Mexico, having into account the positive impact that industrial development has in non-agrarian employment and the effects of the integration into NAFTA on trade and industrial development. We present an econometric model to explain non agrarian employment depending on direct and indirect effects of industrial development, and relate these findings with other studies on the effects of integration. Although the impact of integration was in many aspects positive, it is clear that it is not enough to foster industrial investment at the level necessary to achieve high rates of non agrarian employment and development in many Mexican regions. On the other hand, the problem of the negative evolution of agrarian employment of Mexico during the last years of the 20th century was more due to the consequences of the evolution of international relative prices of Agriculture than to the direct effects of the integration into NAFTA, and it was common to other countries. The main conclusions point to recommend industrial investment, to focus on regional and rural development, to increase the number of non-agrarian jobs, not only in urban areas but also in rural ones, in order to avoid compulsory emigration, and to eradicate poverty. These complementary policies would amplify the positive impact of integration and they should include a reinforcement of the recent effort to increase public expenditure on education per inhabitant in order to foster the positive effects of education on development.

Econometric model of Services Sector Development and Impact of Tourism in Latin American Countries

Over recent decades some Latin American countries have experienced an important development due to the positive effect of tourism on the services sector. Our model relates tourism with the increase of Value-Added in services, taking into account other important variables which influence the evolution of this sector and explain the important differences among developed and less developed countries. Besides tourism, the industrial evolution is also very important to improve the development of services through some inter-sector relations. The model suggests that some stagnation of services development in many countries is due largely to a lack of industrial investment, specially in countries with a low level of tourism. Our main conclusions are that both factors, industry and tourism, need to be increased generally to contribute to development of employment and production of the services sector. .

Economic growth and cycles: Cross-country models of education, industry and fertility and international comparisons

The aim of this article is to point out the importance of education on a sustained economic development strategy, having into account inter-sector relations and the influence of education in the growth of production per head. Three cross-country models are presented. The first model relates the diminution of excessively high fertility rates with increases in the educative level of population. The second model relates value-added in the services sector with the internal production of industry and agriculture, as well as with foreign trade and changes in population. The third model relates the industrial development with the educative level of population and foreign trade. We analyse, from a worldwide view, the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product (Gdp), Population and Gdp per inhabitant (Gdph). USA, Japan, the European Union, Latin America, Africa, China, India, and other areas of Europe and Asia-Pacific are considered, and the main differences in the levels of Gdph are explained, having into account the results of the cross-country models. The main conclusions highlight the necessity of new international policies for improving the educative level of population in less developed countries. .

Potential Tourism Market in Transition Countries: A Regional Analysis

Tourism is a very important sector for the economic growth and the employment. It is also important to stress that this relationships have not been studied enough, this is even more important if we take into account that we consider the economic impact, not the major determinants of tourist demand, which is the most common feature of tourism studies. In this paper we analyse the economic impact of tourism in the economy of 50 regions of transition countries. The political and economic changes in these countries have brought the attention in this area, making it a desirable destination for an important part of tourists, both in Europe and other parts of the world. Nowadays tourist are not seeking just sun and beaches as it happened in the past, other factors such as culture, history, archaeology or natural parks can explain some of the changes in the movement of tourists around the world. We study the difference among the countries and regions, considering the importance of resident and non-residents tourism in each of them. Through this analysis we would like to point those countries, and regions, which are already in a good position, such as the Czech Republic, Hungary or Poland, comparing them with those others which offer an important potential to develop this sector.

Building self-optimized communication systems based on applicative cross-layer information

This article proposes the Implicit Packet Meta Header(IPMH) as a standard method to compute and represent common QoS properties of the Application Data Units (ADU) of multimedia streams using legacy and proprietary streams’ headers (e.g. Real-time Transport Protocol headers). The use of IPMH by mechanisms located at different layers of the communication architecture will allow implementing fine per-packet selfoptimization of communication services regarding the actual application requirements. A case study showing how IPMH is used by error control mechanisms in the context of wireless networks is presented in order to demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of this approach