Reaching a 1.5 degrees C target: socio-technical challenges for a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity systems

A 1.5°C global average target implies that we should no longer focus on merely incremental emissions reductions from the electricity system, but rather on fundamentally re-envisaging a system that, sooner rather than later, becomes carbon free. Many low-carbon technologies are surpassing mainstream predictions for both uptake and cost reduction. Their deployment is beginning to be disruptive within established systems. ‘Smart technologies’ are being developed to address emerging challenges of system integration, but their rates of future deployment remain uncertain. We argue that transition towards a system that can fully displace carbon generation sources will require expanding the focus of our efforts beyond technical solutions. Recognizing that change has social and technical dimensions, and that these interact strongly, we set out a socio-technical review that covers electricity infrastructure, citizens, business models and governance. It describes some of the socio-technical challenges that need to be addressed for the successful transition of the existing electricity systems. We conclude that a socio-technical understanding of electricity system transitions offers new and better insights into the potential and challenges for rapid decarbonization. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'

The Integration of Laser Scanning and 3D Models in the Legal Process following an Industrial Accident

PublishedThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Background In order to obtain a deeper understanding of an incident, it needs to be investigated to "peel back the layers" and examine both the immediate and underlying failures that contributed to the event itself. One of the key elements of effective accident investigation is recording the scene for future reference. In recent years, however, there have been major advances in survey technology, which have provided the ability to capture scenes in 3D to an unprecedented level of detail, using laser scanners. Methods A case study involving a fatal incident was surveyed using 3D laser scanning and then subsequently recreated through virtual and physical models. The created models were then utilised in both the accident investigation and legal process top explore the technologies use in this setting. Results Benefits include; explanation of the event and environment, incident reconstruction, preservation of evidence, reducing the need for site visits, testing of theories. Drawbacks include; limited technology within court rooms, confusion caused by models, cost, personal interpretation and acceptance in the data. Conclusions The use of laser scanning surveys can be of considerable use in jury trials, for example, if the location supports the use of a high definition survey or if an object has be altered after the accident and has a specific influence on the case and needs to be recorded. However, consideration has to be made in its application and to ensure a fair trial, emphasis being placed on the facts of the case and personal interpretation controlled.The Authors would like to acknowledge the European Social Fund for providing funding for this research. In addition, the authors would also like to acknowledge 3DMSI Ltd for their assistance throughout this research

Association of the CCR5 gene with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

The CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) has been shown to be important in the recruitment of T-helper cells to the synovium, where they accumulate, drive the inflammatory process and the consequent synovitis and joint destruction. A 32 base-pair insertion/deletion variant (CCR5Δ32) within the gene leads to a frame shift and a nonfunctional receptor. CCR5Δ32 has been investigated for its association with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), with conflicting results. The aim of this study was to investigate whether CCR5Δ32 is associated with JIA in an UK population. CCR5Δ32 was genotyped in JIA cases (n=1054) and healthy controls (n=3129) and genotype and allele frequencies were compared. A meta-analysis of our study combined with previously published studies was performed. CCR5Δ32 was significantly associated with protection from developing JIA, in this UK data set (P(trend)=0.006, odds ratio (OR) 0.79 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.66-0.94). The meta-analysis of all published case-control association studies confirmed the protective association with JIA (P=0.001 OR 0.82 95% CI: 0.73-0.93). CCR5Δ32 is a functional variant determining the number of receptors on the surface of T cells, and it is hypothesized that the level of CCR5 expression could influence the migration of proinflammatory T cells into the synovium and thus susceptibility to JIA

Relativistic Meson Spectroscopy and In-Medium Effects

We extend our earlier model of $q\bar q$ mesons using relativistic quasipotential (QP) wave equations to include open-flavor states and running quark-gluon coupling effects. Global fits to meson spectra are achieved with rms deviations from experiment of 43-50 MeV. We examine in-medium effects through their influence on the confining interaction and predict the confining strength at which the masses of certain mesons fall below the threshold of their dominant decay channel.Comment: 12 Pages, 2 Postscript figures (appended at the end with instructions, available also from [email protected]

Association of the AFF3 gene and IL2/IL21 gene region with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Recent genetic studies have led to identification of numerous loci that are associated with susceptibility to autoimmune diseases. The strategy of using information from these studies has facilitated the identification of novel juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) susceptibility loci, specifically, PTPN22 and IL2RA. Several novel autoimmune susceptibility loci have recently been identified, and we hypothesise that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within these genes may also be JIA susceptibility loci. Five SNPs within the genes AFF3, IL2/IL21, IL7R, CTLA4 and CD226, previously associated with multiple autoimmune diseases were genotyped, in a large data set of Caucasian JIA patients and controls, and tested for association with JIA. We identified two susceptibility loci for JIA, AFF3 and the IL2/IL21 region and additional weak evidence supporting an association with the CTLA4 and IL7R genes, which warrant further investigation. All results require validation in independent JIA data sets. Further characterisation of the specific causal variants will be required before functional studies can be performed

Calibration and Cross-Validation of Accelerometery for Estimating Movement Skills in Children Aged 8-12 Years

This study sought to calibrate triaxial accelerometery, worn on both wrists, waist and both ankles, during children’s physical activity (PA), with particular attention to object control motor skills performed at a fast and slow cadence, and to cross-validate the accelerometer cut-points derived from the calibration using an independent dataset. Twenty boys (10.1 ±1.5 years) undertook seven, five-minute bouts of activity lying supine, standing, running (4.5kmph−1) instep passing a football (fast and slow cadence), dribbling a football (fast and slow cadence), whilst wearing five GENEActiv accelerometers on their non-dominant and dominant wrists and ankles and waist. VO2 was assessed concurrently using indirect calorimetry. ROC curve analysis was used to generate cut-points representing sedentary, light and moderate PA. The cut-points were then cross-validated using independent data from 30 children (9.4 ± 1.4 years), who had undertaken similar activities whilst wearing accelerometers and being assessed for VO2. GENEActiv monitors were able to discriminate sedentary activity to an excellent level irrespective of wear location. For moderate PA, discrimination of activity was considered good for monitors placed on the dominant wrist, waist, non-dominant and dominant ankles but fair for the non-dominant wrist. Applying the cut-points to the cross-validation sample indicated that cut-points validated in the calibration were able to successfully discriminate sedentary behaviour and moderate PA to an excellent standard and light PA to a fair standard. Cut-points derived from this calibration demonstrate an excellent ability to discriminate children’s sedentary behaviour and moderate intensity PA comprising motor skill activity.N/

Temporal dynamics of aquatic communities and implications for pond conservation

Conservation through the protection of particular habitats is predicated on the assumption that the conservation value of those habitats is stable. We test this assumption for ponds by investigating temporal variation in macroinvertebrate and macrophyte communities over a 10-year period in northwest England. We surveyed 51 ponds in northern England in 1995/6 and again in 2006, identifying all macrophytes (167 species) and all macroinvertebrates (221 species, excluding Diptera) to species. The alpha-diversity, beta-diversity and conservation value of these ponds were compared between surveys. We find that invertebrate species richness increased from an average of 29. 5 species to 39. 8 species between surveys. Invertebrate gamma-diversity also increased between the two surveys from 181 species to 201 species. However, this increase in diversity was accompanied by a decrease in beta-diversity. Plant alpha-, beta and gamma-diversity remained approximately constant between the two periods. However, increased proportions of grass species and a complete loss of charophytes suggests that the communities are undergoing succession. Conservation value was not correlated between sampling periods in either plants or invertebrates. This was confirmed by comparing ponds that had been disturbed with those that had no history of disturbance to demonstrate that levels of correlation between surveys were approximately equal in each group of ponds. This study has three important conservation implications: (i) a pond with high diversity or high conservation value may not remain that way and so it is unwise to base pond conservation measures upon protecting currently-speciose habitats; (ii) maximising pond gamma-diversity requires a combination of late and early succession ponds, especially for invertebrates; and (iii) invertebrate and plant communities in ponds may require different management strategies if succession occurs at varying rates in the two groups

Building motivation to participate in a quality improvement collaborative in NHS hospital trusts in Southeast England: a qualitative participatory evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: This study explores the barriers and facilitators that impact on the motivation of practitioners to participate in a quality improvement collaborative. DESIGN: A qualitative and formative evaluation using a participatory approach, the researcher-in-residence model which embraces the concept of 'coproducing' knowledge between researchers and practitioners using a range of research methods such as participant observation, interviews and documentary analysis. The design, creation and application of newly generated evidence are facilitated by the researcher through negotiation and compromise with team members. PARTICIPANTS: Senior and middle managers, doctors and nurses. SETTING: Two hospitals in Southeast England participating in a Patient Safety Improvement Collaborative and the facilitator (host) of the collaborative, based in Central London. RESULTS: The evaluation has revealed facilitators and barriers to motivation categorised under two main themes: (1) inherent motivation and (2) factors that influence motivation, interorganisational and intraorganisational features as well as external factors. Facilitators included collaborative 'champions,' individuals who drove the quality improvement agenda at a local level, raising awareness and inspiring colleagues. The collaborative itself acted as a facilitator, promoting shared learning as well as building motivation for participation. A key barrier was the lack of board engagement in the participating National Health Service organisations which may have affected motivation among front-line staff. CONCLUSIONS: Collaboratives maybe an important way of engaging practitioners in quality improvement initiatives. This study highlights that despite a challenging healthcare environment in the UK, there remains motivation among individuals to participate in quality improvement programmes as they recognise that improvement approaches may facilitate positive change in local clinical processes and systems. Collaboratives can harness this individual motivation to facilitate spread and adoption of improvement methodology and build engagement across their membership

Optimisation of methods for bacterial skin microbiome investigation: primer selection and comparison of the 454 versus MiSeq platform

BACKGROUND: The composition of the skin microbiome is predicted to play a role in the development of conditions such as atopic eczema and psoriasis. 16S rRNA gene sequencing allows the investigation of bacterial microbiota. A significant challenge in this field is development of cost effective high throughput methodologies for the robust interrogation of the skin microbiota, where biomass is low. Here we describe validation of methodologies for 16S rRNA (ribosomal ribonucleic acid) gene sequencing from the skin microbiome, using the Illumina MiSeq platform, the selection of primer to amplify regions for sequencing and we compare results with the current standard protocols.. METHODS: DNA was obtained from two low density mock communities of 11 diverse bacterial strains (with and without human DNA supplementation) and from swabs taken from the skin of healthy volunteers. This was amplified using primer pairs covering hypervariable regions of the 16S rRNA gene: primers 63F and 519R (V1-V3); and 347F and 803R (V3-V4). The resultant libraries were indexed for the MiSeq and Roche454 and sequenced. Both data sets were denoised, cleaned of chimeras and analysed using QIIME. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the diversity indices at the phylum and the genus level observed between the platforms. The capture of diversity using the low density mock community samples demonstrated that the primer pair spanning the V3-V4 hypervariable region had better capture when compared to the primer pair for the V1-V3 region and was robust to spiking with human DNA. The pilot data generated using the V3-V4 region from the skin of healthy volunteers was consistent with these results, even at the genus level (Staphylococcus, Propionibacterium, Corynebacterium, Paracoccus, Micrococcus, Enhydrobacter and Deinococcus identified at similar abundances on both platforms). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the bacterial community diversity captured using the V3-V4 16S rRNA hypervariable region from sequencing using the MiSeq platform is comparable to the Roche454 GS Junior platform. These findings provide evidence that the optimised method can be used in human clinical samples of low bacterial biomass such as the investigation of the skin microbiota. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12866-017-0927-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

How and why DNA barcodes underestimate the diversity of microbial eukaryotes

Background: Because many picoplanktonic eukaryotic species cannot currently be maintained in culture, direct sequencing of PCR-amplified 18S ribosomal gene DNA fragments from filtered sea-water has been successfully used to investigate the astounding diversity of these organisms. The recognition of many novel planktonic organisms is thus based solely on their 18S rDNA sequence. However, a species delimited by its 18S rDNA sequence might contain many cryptic species, which are highly differentiated in their protein coding sequences. Principal Findings: Here, we investigate the issue of species identification from one gene to the whole genome sequence. Using 52 whole genome DNA sequences, we estimated the global genetic divergence in protein coding genes between organisms from different lineages and compared this to their ribosomal gene sequence divergences. We show that this relationship between proteome divergence and 18S divergence is lineage dependant. Unicellular lineages have especially low 18S divergences relative to their protein sequence divergences, suggesting that 18S ribosomal genes are too conservative to assess planktonic eukaryotic diversity. We provide an explanation for this lineage dependency, which suggests that most species with large effective population sizes will show far less divergence in 18S than protein coding sequences. Conclusions: There is therefore a trade-off between using genes that are easy to amplify in all species, but which by their nature are highly conserved and underestimate the true number of species, and using genes that give a better description of the number of species, but which are more difficult to amplify. We have shown that this trade-off differs between unicellular and multicellular organisms as a likely consequence of differences in effective population sizes. We anticipate that biodiversity of microbial eukaryotic species is underestimated and that numerous ''cryptic species'' will become discernable with the future acquisition of genomic and metagenomic sequences