Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective

Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research

This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out the implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations. JEL Classification: C32

Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research

We describe a general theoretical framework against which recent results in economic forecasting can be judged, including explanations for the findings of forecasting competitions, the prevalence of forecast failure, and the role of causal variables. We compare this framework to a previous formulation which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster, then describe ten aspects which our approach illuminates, and draw out their implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss ten areas where research is needed to clarify empirical findings that still lack theoretical explanations.

Flowering of Sugarcane: Mechanics and Control

Flowering of sugarcane is a mixed blessing for the grower: on the one hand, flowering is essential for the improvement by commercial cane breeding; on the other hand, it can cause very substantial losses of yield in commercial fields. This bulletin presents relevant data from many years research on the mechanics of flowering and the methods available to prevent or induce blossoming

The Double Quasar Q2138-431: Lensing by a Dark Galaxy?

We report the discovery of a new gravitational lens candidate Q2138-431AB, comprising two quasar images at a redshift of 1.641 separated by 4.5 arcsecs. The spectra of the two images are very similar, and the redshifts agree to better than 115 km.sec$^{-1}$. The two images have magnitudes $B_J = 19.8$ and $B_J = 21.0$, and in spite of a deep search and image subtraction procedure, no lensing galaxy has been found with $R < 23.8$. Modelling of the system configuration implies that the mass-to-light ratio of any lensing galaxy is likely to be around $1000 M_{\odot}/L_{\odot}$, with an absolute lower limit of $200 M_{\odot}/L_{\odot}$ for an Einstein-de Sitter universe. We conclude that the most likely explanation of the observations is gravitational lensing by a dark galaxy, although it is possible we are seeing a binary quasar.Comment: 17 pages (Latex), 8 postscript figures included, accepted by MNRA