The Aerosphere as a Network Connector of Organisms and Their Diseases

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via postmolting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the movement and disease transmission among 106 generalized waterfowl agents originating from ten molting locations in eastern Siberia, with the HPAI seeded in only ~102 agents at one of these locations. Our ABM tracked the disease dynamics across a very large grid of sites as well as individual agents, allowing us to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of change in virulence of the HPAI infection as well as waterfowl host susceptibility to the disease. We concurrently simulated a 12-station disease monitoring network in the northwest USA and Canada in order to assess the potential efficacy of these sites to detect and confirm the arrival of HPAI. Our findings indicated that HPAI spread was initially facilitated but eventually subdued by the migration of host agents. Yet, during the 90-day simulation, selective pressures appeared to have distilled the HPAI strain to its most virulent form (i.e., through natural selection), which was counterbalanced by the host susceptibility being conversely reduced (i.e., through genetic predisposition and acquired immunity). The monitoring network demonstrated wide variation in the utility of sites; some were clearly better at providing early warnings of HPAI arrival, while sites further from the disease origin exposed the selective dynamics which slowed the spread of the disease albeit with the result of passing highly virulent strains into southern wintering locales (where human impacts are more likely). Though the ABM presented had generalized waterfowl migration and HPAI disease dynamics, this exercise demonstrates the power of such simulations to examine the extremely large and complex processes which comprise aeroecology. We offer insights into how such models could be further parameterized to represent HPAI transmission risks as well as how ABMs could be applied to other aeroecological questions pertaining to individual-based connectivity

Genomic detection of a virus lineage replacement event of dengue virus serotype 2 in Brazil, 2019

BACKGROUND: Despite efforts to mitigate the impact of DENV epidemics, the virus remains a public health problem in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Most DENV cases in the Americas between January and July 2019 were reported in Brazil. São Paulo state in the southeast of Brazil has reported nearly half of all DENV infections in the country. OBJECTIVES: To understand the origin and dynamics of the 2019 DENV outbreak. METHODS: Here using portable nanopore sequencing we generated 20 new DENV genome sequences from viremic patients with suspected dengue infection residing in two of the most-affected municipalities of Sao Paulo state, Araraquara and São José do Rio Preto. We conducted a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis with 1,630 global DENV strains to better understand the evolutionary history of the DENV lineages that currently circulate in the region. FINDINGS: The new outbreak strains were classified as DENV2 genotype III (American/Asian genotype). Our analysis shows that the 2019 outbreak is the result of a novel DENV lineage that was recently introduced to Brazil from the Caribbean region. Dating phylogeographic analysis suggests that DENV2-III BR-4 was introduced to Brazil in or around early 2014, possibly from the Caribbean region. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our study describes the early detection of a newly introduced and rapidly-expanding DENV2 virus lineage in Brazil.</p

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on 25 February 2020. We report and contextualize epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the epidemic. By 31 May 2020, 514,200 COVID-19 cases, including 29,314 deaths, had been reported in 75.3% (4,196 of 5,570) of municipalities across all five administrative regions of Brazil. The R0 value for Brazil was estimated at 3.1 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 2.4–5.5), with a higher median but overlapping credible intervals compared with some other seriously affected countries. A positive association between higher per-capita income and COVID-19 diagnosis was identified. Furthermore, the severe acute respiratory infection cases with unknown aetiology were associated with lower per-capita income. Co-circulation of six respiratory viruses was detected but at very low levels. These findings provide a comprehensive description of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and may help to guide subsequent measures to control virus transmission

Variation in Human Cytochrome P-450 Drug-Metabolism Genes: A Gateway to the Understanding of Plasmodium vivax Relapses

Although Plasmodium vivax relapses are classically associated with hypnozoite activation, it has been proposed that a proportion of these cases are due to primaquine (PQ) treatment failure caused by polymorphisms in cytochrome P-450 2D6 (CYP2D6). Here, we present evidence that CYP2D6 polymorphisms are implicated in PQ failure, which was reinforced by findings in genetically similar parasites, and may explain a number of vivax relapses. Using a computational approach, these polymorphisms were predicted to affect the activity of CYP2D6 through changes in the structural stability that could lead to disruption of the PQ-enzyme interactions. Furthermore, because PQ is co-administered with chloroquine (CQ), we investigated whether CQ-impaired metabolism by cytochrome P-450 2C8 (CYP2C8) could also contribute to vivax recurrences. Our results show that CYP2C8-mutated patients frequently relapsed early (<42 days) and had a higher proportion of genetically similar parasites, suggesting the possibility of recrudescence due to CQ therapeutic failure. These results highlight the importance of pharmacogenetic studies as a tool to monitor the efficacy of antimalarial therapy

Neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 by antibodies elicited through natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: an immunological study

Background Mutations accrued by SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1—first detected in Brazil in early January, 2021—include amino acid changes in the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike protein that also are reported in other variants of concern, including B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. We aimed to investigate whether isolates of wild-type P.1 lineage SARS-CoV-2 can escape from neutralising antibodies generated by a polyclonal immune response. Methods We did an immunological study to assess the neutralising effects of antibodies on lineage P.1 and lineage B isolates of SARS-CoV-2, using plasma samples from patients previously infected with or vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. Two specimens (P.1/28 and P.1/30) containing SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 (as confirmed by viral genome sequencing) were obtained from nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected from patients in Manaus, Brazil, and compared against an isolate of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B (SARS.CoV2/SP02.2020) recovered from a patient in Brazil in February, 2020. Isolates were incubated with plasma samples from 21 blood donors who had previously had COVID-19 and from a total of 53 recipients of the chemically inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine CoronaVac: 18 individuals after receipt of a single dose and an additional 20 individuals (38 in total) after receipt of two doses (collected 17–38 days after the most recent dose); and 15 individuals who received two doses during the phase 3 trial of the vaccine (collected 134–230 days after the second dose). Antibody neutralisation of P.1/28, P.1/30, and B isolates by plasma samples were compared in terms of median virus neutralisation titre (VNT50, defined as the reciprocal value of the sample dilution that showed 50% protection against cytopathic effects). Findings In terms of VNT50, plasma from individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 had an 8·6 times lower neutralising capacity against the P.1 isolates (median VNT50 30 [IQR <20–45] for P.1/28 and 30 [<20–40] for P.1/30) than against the lineage B isolate (260 [160–400]), with a binominal model showing significant reductions in lineage P.1 isolates compared with the lineage B isolate (p≤0·0001). Efficient neutralisation of P.1 isolates was not seen with plasma samples collected from individuals vaccinated with a first dose of CoronaVac 20–23 days earlier (VNT50s below the limit of detection [<20] for most plasma samples), a second dose 17–38 days earlier (median VNT50 24 [IQR <20–25] for P.1/28 and 28 [<20–25] for P.1/30), or a second dose 134–260 days earlier (all VNT50s below limit of detection). Median VNT50s against the lineage B isolate were 20 (IQR 20–30) after a first dose of CoronaVac 20–23 days earlier, 75 (<20–263) after a second dose 17–38 days earlier, and 20 (<20–30) after a second dose 134–260 days earlier. In plasma collected 17–38 days after a second dose of CoronaVac, neutralising capacity against both P.1 isolates was significantly decreased (p=0·0051 for P.1/28 and p=0·0336 for P.1/30) compared with that against the lineage B isolate. All data were corroborated by results obtained through plaque reduction neutralisation tests. Interpretation SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 might escape neutralisation by antibodies generated in response to polyclonal stimulation against previously circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2. Continuous genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 combined with antibody neutralisation assays could help to guide national immunisation programmes. Funding São Paulo Research Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and Funding Authority for Studies, Medical Research Council, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, National Institutes of Health. Translation For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section