Evaluation of vaccination strategies for SIR epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with the analysis of vaccination strategies in a stochastic SIR (susceptible → infected → removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals with a random network of social contacts that is also partitioned into households. Under various vaccine action models, we consider both household-based vaccination schemes, in which the way in which individuals are chosen for vaccination depends on the size of the households in which they reside, and acquaintance vaccination, which targets individuals of high degree in the social network. For both types of vaccination scheme, assuming a large population with few initial infectives, we derive a threshold parameter which determines whether or not a large outbreak can occur and also the probability and fraction of the population infected by such an outbreak. The performance of these schemes is studied numerically, focusing on the influence of the household size distribution and the degree distribution of the social network. We find that acquaintance vaccination can significantly outperform the best household-based scheme if the degree distribution of the social network is heavy-tailed. For household-based schemes, when the vaccine coverage is insufficient to prevent a major outbreak and the vaccine is imperfect, we find situations in which both the probability and size of a major outbreak under the scheme which minimises the threshold parameter are \emph{larger} than in the scheme which maximises the threshold parameter

Susceptibility sets and the final outcome of collective Reed–Frost epidemics

This paper is concerned with exact results for the final outcome of stochastic SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemics among a closed, finite and homogeneously mixing population. The factorial moments of the number of initial susceptibles who ultimately avoid infection by such an epidemic are shown to be intimately related to the concept of a susceptibility set. This connection leads to simple, probabilistically illuminating proofs of exact results concerning the total size and severity of collective Reed–Frost epidemic processes, in terms of Gontcharoff polynomials, first obtained in a series of papers by Claude Lef`evre and Philippe Picard. The proofs extend easily to include general final state random variables defined on SIR epidemics, and also to multitype epidemics

Moment-based parameter estimation in binomial random intersection graph models

Binomial random intersection graphs can be used as parsimonious statistical models of large and sparse networks, with one parameter for the average degree and another for transitivity, the tendency of neighbours of a node to be connected. This paper discusses the estimation of these parameters from a single observed instance of the graph, using moment estimators based on observed degrees and frequencies of 2-stars and triangles. The observed data set is assumed to be a subgraph induced by a set of $n_0$ nodes sampled from the full set of $n$ nodes. We prove the consistency of the proposed estimators by showing that the relative estimation error is small with high probability for $n_0 \gg n^{2/3} \gg 1$. As a byproduct, our analysis confirms that the empirical transitivity coefficient of the graph is with high probability close to the theoretical clustering coefficient of the model.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Uncertainty in geometry of fibre preforms manufactured with Automated Dry Fibre Placement (ADFP) and its effects on permeability

Resin transfer moulding is one of several processes available for manufacturing fibre-reinforced composites from dry fibre reinforcement. Recently, dry reinforcements made with Automated Dry Fibre Placement have been introduced into the aerospace industry. Typically, the permeability of the reinforcement is assumed to be constant throughout the dry preform geometry whereas in reality it possesses inevitable uncertainty due to variability in geometry. This uncertainty propagates to the uncertainty of the mould filling and the fill time, one of the important variables in resin injection. It makes characterisation of the permeability and its variability an important task for design of the resin transfer moulding process. In this study, variability of the geometry of a reinforcement manufactured using Automated Dry Fibre Placement is studied. Permeability of the manufactured preforms is measured experimentally and compared to stochastic simulations based on an analytical model and a stochastic geometry model. The simulations showed that difference between the actual geometry and the designed geometry can result in 50% reduction of the permeability. The stochastic geometry model predicts results within 20% of the experimental values

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008

Estimating the within-household infection rate in emerging SIR epidemics among a community of households

This paper is concerned with estimation of the within household infection rate λL for a susceptible → infective → recovered epidemic among a population of households, from observation of the early, exponentially growing phase of an epidemic. Specifically, it is assumed that an estimate of the exponential growth rate is available from general data on an emerging epidemic and more-detailed, household-level data are available in a sample of households. Estimates of λL obtained using the final size distribution of single-household epidemics are usually biased owing to the emerging nature of the epidemic. A new method, which accounts correctly for the emerging nature of the epidemic, is developed by exploiting the asymptotic theory of supercritical branching processes and proved to yield a strongly consistent estimator of λL as the population and sampled households both tend to infinity in an appropriate fashion. The theory is illustrated by simulations which demonstrate that the new method is feasible for finite populations and numerical studies are used to explore how changes to the parameters governing the spread of an epidemic affect the bias of estimates based on single-household final size distributions

Neighbour identity hardly affects litter-mixture effects on decomposition rates of New Zealand forest species.

The mass loss of litter mixtures is often different than expected based on the mass loss of the component species. We investigated if the identity of neighbour species affects these litter-mixing effects. To achieve this, we compared decomposition rates in monoculture and in all possible two-species combinations of eight tree species, widely differing in litter chemistry, set out in two contrasting New Zealand forest types. Litter from the mixed-species litter bags was separated into its component species, which allowed us to quantify the importance of litter-mixing effects and neighbour identity, relative to the effects of species identity, litter chemistry and litter incubation environment. Controlling factors on litter decomposition rate decreased in importance in the order: species identity (litter quality) >> forest type >> neighbour species. Species identity had the strongest influence on decomposition rate. Interspecific differences in initial litter lignin concentration explained a large proportion of the interspecific differences in litter decomposition rate. Litter mass loss was higher and litter-mixture effects were stronger on the younger, more fertile alluvial soils than on the older, less-fertile marine terrace soils. Litter-mixture effects only shifted percentage mass loss within the range of 1.5%. There was no evidence that certain litter mixtures consistently showed interactive effects. Contrary to common theory, adding a relatively fast-decomposing species generally slowed down the decomposition of the slower decomposing species in the mixture. This study shows that: (1) species identity, litter chemistry and forest type are quantitatively the most important drivers of litter decomposition in a New Zealand rain forest; (2) litter-mixture effects—although statistically significant—are far less important and hardly depend on the identity and the chemical characteristics of the neighbour species; (3) additive effects predominate in this ecosystem, so that mass dynamics of the mixtures can be predicted from the monocultures

Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?

Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission