Estimating the effectiveness of routine asymptomatic PCR testing at different frequencies for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections

Background Routine asymptomatic testing using RT-PCR of people who interact with vulnerable populations, such as medical staff in hospitals or care workers in care homes, has been employed to help prevent outbreaks among vulnerable populations. Although the peak sensitivity of RT-PCR can be high, the probability of detecting an infection will vary throughout the course of an infection. The effectiveness of routine asymptomatic testing will therefore depend on testing frequency and how PCR detection varies over time. Methods We fitted a Bayesian statistical model to a dataset of twice weekly PCR tests of UK healthcare workers performed by self-administered nasopharyngeal swab, regardless of symptoms. We jointly estimated times of infection and the probability of a positive PCR test over time following infection; we then compared asymptomatic testing strategies by calculating the probability that a symptomatic infection is detected before symptom onset and the probability that an asymptomatic infection is detected within 7 days of infection. Results We estimated that the probability that the PCR test detected infection peaked at 77% (54–88%) 4 days after infection, decreasing to 50% (38–65%) by 10 days after infection. Our results suggest a substantially higher probability of detecting infections 1–3 days after infection than previously published estimates. We estimated that testing every other day would detect 57% (33–76%) of symptomatic cases prior to onset and 94% (75–99%) of asymptomatic cases within 7 days if test results were returned within a day. Conclusions Our results suggest that routine asymptomatic testing can enable detection of a high proportion of infected individuals early in their infection, provided that the testing is frequent and the time from testing to notification of results is sufficiently fast

Cesarean Section, Formula Feeding, and Infant Antibiotic Exposure: Separate and Combined Impacts on Gut Microbial Changes in Later Infancy

Established during infancy, our complex gut microbial community is shaped by medical interventions and societal preferences, such as cesarean section, formula feeding, and antibiotic use. We undertook this study to apply the significance analysis of microarrays (SAM) method to quantify changes in gut microbial composition during later infancy following the most common birth and postnatal exposures affecting infant gut microbial composition. Gut microbiota of 166 full-term infants in the Canadian Healthy Infant Longitudinal Development birth cohort were profiled using 16S high-throughput gene sequencing. Infants were placed into groups according to mutually exclusive combinations of birth mode (vaginal/cesarean birth), breastfeeding status (yes/no), and antibiotic use (yes/no) by 3 months of age. Based on repeated permutations of data and adjustment for the false discovery rate, the SAM statistic identified statistically significant changes in gut microbial abundance between 3 months and 1 year of age within each infant group. We observed well-known patterns of microbial phyla succession in later infancy (declining Proteobacteria; increasing Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes) following vaginal birth, breastfeeding, and no antibiotic exposure. Genus Lactobacillus, Roseburia, and Faecalibacterium species appeared in the top 10 increases to microbial abundance in these infants. Deviations from this pattern were evident among infants with other perinatal co-exposures; notably, the largest number of microbial species with unchanged abundance was seen in gut microbiota following early cessation of breastfeeding in infants. With and without antibiotic exposure, the absence of a breast milk diet by 3 months of age following vaginal birth yielded a higher proportion of unchanged abundance of Bacteroidaceae and Enterobacteriaceae in later infancy, and a higher ratio of unchanged Enterobacteriaceae to Alcaligenaceae microbiota. Gut microbiota of infants born vaginally and exclusively formula fed became less enriched with family Veillonellaceae and Clostridiaceae, showed unchanging levels of Ruminococcaceae, and exhibited a greater decline in the Rikenellaceae/Bacteroidaceae ratio compared to their breastfed, vaginally delivered counterparts. These changes were also evident in cesarean-delivered infants to a lesser extent. The clinical relevance of these trajectories of microbial change is that they culminate in taxon-specific abundances in the gut microbiota of later infancy, which we and others have observed to be associated with food sensitization

Fine-mapping of 150 breast cancer risk regions identifies 191 likely target genes.

Genome-wide association studies have identified breast cancer risk variants in over 150 genomic regions, but the mechanisms underlying risk remain largely unknown. These regions were explored by combining association analysis with in silico genomic feature annotations. We defined 205 independent risk-associated signals with the set of credible causal variants in each one. In parallel, we used a Bayesian approach (PAINTOR) that combines genetic association, linkage disequilibrium and enriched genomic features to determine variants with high posterior probabilities of being causal. Potentially causal variants were significantly over-represented in active gene regulatory regions and transcription factor binding sites. We applied our INQUSIT pipeline for prioritizing genes as targets of those potentially causal variants, using gene expression (expression quantitative trait loci), chromatin interaction and functional annotations. Known cancer drivers, transcription factors and genes in the developmental, apoptosis, immune system and DNA integrity checkpoint gene ontology pathways were over-represented among the highest-confidence target genes

Identification of a Common Variant for Coronary Heart Disease at PDE1A Contributes to Individualized Treatment Goals and Risk Stratification of Cardiovascular Complications in Chinese Patients With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE: In this study we aim to unravel genetic determinants of coronary heart disease (CHD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and explore their applications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study for CHD in Chinese patients with T2D (3,596 case and 8,898 control subjects), followed by replications in European patients with T2D (764 case and 4,276 control subjects) and general populations (n = 51,442-547,261). Each identified variant was examined for its association with a wide range of phenotypes and its interactions with glycemic, blood pressure (BP), and lipid controls in incident cardiovascular diseases. RESULTS: We identified a novel variant (rs10171703) for CHD (odds ratio 1.21 [95% CI 1.13-1.30]; P = 2.4 × 10-8) and BP (β ± SE 0.130 ± 0.017; P = 4.1 × 10-14) at PDE1A in Chinese T2D patients but found only a modest association with CHD in general populations. This variant modulated the effects of BP goal attainment (130/80 mmHg) on CHD (Pinteraction = 0.0155) and myocardial infarction (MI) (Pinteraction = 5.1 × 10-4). Patients with CC genotype of rs10171703 had >40% reduction in either cardiovascular events in response to BP control (2.9 × 10-8 < P < 3.6 × 10-5), those with CT genotype had no difference (0.0726 < P < 0.2614), and those with TT genotype had a threefold increase in MI risk (P = 6.7 × 10-3). CONCLUSIONS: We discovered a novel CHD- and BP-related variant at PDE1A that interacted with BP goal attainment with divergent effects on CHD risk in Chinese patients with T2D. Incorporating this information may facilitate individualized treatment strategies for precision care in diabetes, only when our findings are validated

Dyslipidaemia in diabetic patients: time for a rethink

Patients with type 2 diabetes have a marked increase in the risk of premature coronary heart disease (CHD). One of the underlying reasons for this increased risk is atherogenic dyslipidaemia, which is common in this patient group and characterized by low plasma levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), increased levels of serum triglycerides, specifically very low-density lipoprotein triglycerides, and an increase in small, dense low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles. Current management strategies focus on the initial use of statin or fibrate therapy (the latter approach indicated in patients with pronounced hypertriglyceridaemia). Recent treatment guidelines also emphasize the need for reduction in LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) below 100 mg/dl (2.6 mmol/l) in diabetic patients, as this patient group has a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors that collectively lead to an excess risk of premature mortality. Multidrug lipid-modifying therapy has been proposed to further reduce CHD risk in diabetic patients. Adding nicotinic acid to primary statin therapy would be a logical approach based on the complementary therapeutic benefits of these treatments. Nicotinic acid is the most potent agent currently available for raising HDL-C and is also effective in reducing triglycerides and LDL-C. Moreover, clinical trial data have shown that nicotinic acid can be safely used in diabetic patients. Data from the Arterial Biology for the Investigation of the Treatment Effects of Reducing Cholesterol (ARBITER 2) study in patients with established CHD and low HDL-C (27% of whom had type 2 diabetes) show the atheroprotective effects of nicotinic acid/statin combination therapy. The clinical benefits of this combination therapy are indicated by subgroup analyses from the HDL-Atherosclerosis Treatment Study, which showed 40% reduction in coronary event frequency in patients with impaired glucose tolerance. Together, these data support the proposed strategy of aggressive multidrug treatment of diabetic dyslipidaemia to improve patient outcome