A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.We gratefully acknowledge the NBRPC (2013CB955902), NSFC (41372192; 41290254; 41230524; 41023006), and the WLF-CAS for funding this research. This study was also partially supported by Taiwan MOST (103-2119-M-002-022) and NTU (101R7625) grants. H.C. and R.L.E. received financial support from the U.S. NSF (EAR-0908792 and EAR-1211299), and S.F.M.B. received support from the Swiss NSF (CRSI22_132646/1).This is the final version. It was first published by NPG at http://www.nature.com/srep/2015/150717/srep12284/full/srep12284.html#author-information

Machine-learning of atomic-scale properties based on physical principles

We briefly summarize the kernel regression approach, as used recently in materials modelling, to fitting functions, particularly potential energy surfaces, and highlight how the linear algebra framework can be used to both predict and train from linear functionals of the potential energy, such as the total energy and atomic forces. We then give a detailed account of the Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) representation and kernel, showing how it arises from an abstract representation of smooth atomic densities, and how it is related to several popular density-based representations of atomic structure. We also discuss recent generalisations that allow fine control of correlations between different atomic species, prediction and fitting of tensorial properties, and also how to construct structural kernels---applicable to comparing entire molecules or periodic systems---that go beyond an additive combination of local environments

Feller Processes: The Next Generation in Modeling. Brownian Motion, L\'evy Processes and Beyond

We present a simple construction method for Feller processes and a framework for the generation of sample paths of Feller processes. The construction is based on state space dependent mixing of L\'evy processes. Brownian Motion is one of the most frequently used continuous time Markov processes in applications. In recent years also L\'evy processes, of which Brownian Motion is a special case, have become increasingly popular. L\'evy processes are spatially homogeneous, but empirical data often suggest the use of spatially inhomogeneous processes. Thus it seems necessary to go to the next level of generalization: Feller processes. These include L\'evy processes and in particular Brownian motion as special cases but allow spatial inhomogeneities. Many properties of Feller processes are known, but proving the very existence is, in general, very technical. Moreover, an applicable framework for the generation of sample paths of a Feller process was missing. We explain, with practitioners in mind, how to overcome both of these obstacles. In particular our simulation technique allows to apply Monte Carlo methods to Feller processes.Comment: 22 pages, including 4 figures and 8 pages of source code for the generation of sample paths of Feller processe

Early rheumatoid arthritis is characterized by a distinct and transient synovial fluid cytokine profile of T cell and stromal cell origin

Pathological processes involved in the initiation of rheumatoid synovitis remain unclear. We undertook the present study to identify immune and stromal processes that are present soon after the clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis ( RA) by assessing a panel of T cell, macrophage, and stromal cell related cytokines and chemokines in the synovial fluid of patients with early synovitis. Synovial fluid was aspirated from inflamed joints of patients with inflammatory arthritis of duration 3 months or less, whose outcomes were subsequently determined by follow up. For comparison, synovial fluid was aspirated from patients with acute crystal arthritis, established RA and osteoarthritis. Rheumatoid factor activity was blocked in the synovial fluid samples, and a panel of 23 cytokines and chemokines measured using a multiplex based system. Patients with early inflammatory arthritis who subsequently developed RA had a distinct but transient synovial fluid cytokine profile. The levels of a range of T cell, macrophage and stromal cell related cytokines ( e. g. IL-2, IL-4, IL-13, IL-17, IL-15, basic fibroblast growth factor and epidermal growth factor) were significantly elevated in these patients within 3 months after symptom onset, as compared with early arthritis patients who did not develop RA. In addition, this profile was no longer present in established RA. In contrast, patients with non-rheumatoid persistent synovitis exhibited elevated levels of interferon-gamma at initiation. Early synovitis destined to develop into RA is thus characterized by a distinct and transient synovial fluid cytokine profile. The cytokines present in the early rheumatoid lesion suggest that this response is likely to influence the microenvironment required for persistent RA

Influence of environmental parameters on movements and habitat utilization of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Madagascar breeding ground

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Royal Society Open Science 3 (2016): 160616, doi:10.1098/rsos.160616.Assessing the movement patterns and key habitat features of breeding humpback whales is a prerequisite for the conservation management of this philopatric species. To investigate the interactions between humpback whale movements and environmental conditions off Madagascar, we deployed 25 satellite tags in the northeast and southwest coast of Madagascar. For each recorded position, we collated estimates of environmental variables and computed two behavioural metrics: behavioural state of ‘transiting’ (consistent/directional) versus ‘localized’ (variable/non-directional), and active swimming speed (i.e. speed relative to the current). On coastal habitats (i.e. bathymetry < 200 m and in adjacent areas), females showed localized behaviour in deep waters (191 ± 20 m) and at large distances (14 ± 0.6 km) from shore, suggesting that their breeding habitat extends beyond the shallowest waters available close to the coastline. Males' active swimming speed decreased in shallow waters, but environmental parameters did not influence their likelihood to exhibit localized movements, which was probably dominated by social factors instead. In oceanic habitats, both males and females showed localized behaviours in shallow waters and favoured high chlorophyll-a concentrations. Active swimming speed accounts for a large proportion of observed movement speed; however, breeding humpback whales probably exploit prevailing ocean currents to maximize displacement. This study provides evidence that coastal areas, generally subject to strong human pressure, remain the core habitat of humpback whales off Madagascar. Our results expand the knowledge of humpback whale habitat use in oceanic habitat and response to variability of environmental factors such as oceanic current and chlorophyll level.Funding was provided by Total Foundation to NeuroPSI, and by individuals and foundations to the WCS Ocean Giants Program

The HIV care cascade among female sex workers in Zimbabwe: results of a population-based survey from the Sisters Antiretroviral therapy Programme for Prevention of HIV, an Integrated Response (SAPPH-IRe) Trial.

: Female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa have a higher prevalence of HIV than other women of reproductive age. Social, legal, and structural barriers influence their access to care. Little is known about the HIV diagnosis and care cascade in most countries in Southern Africa. We aimed to describe the HIV diagnosis and care cascade among FSW in Zimbabwe. : We conducted cross-sectional respondent driven sampling (RDS) surveys of FSW in 14 sites across Zimbabwe as the baseline for a cluster-randomised controlled trial investigating a combination HIV prevention and care package. We administered a questionnaire, tested women for HIV and measured viral load. We report the mean, minimum, and maximum respondent-driven sampling-2 weighted site values. : The survey included 2722 women, approximately 200 per site. The mean HIV prevalence was 57.5% (42.8-79.2 site minimum and maximum). Of HIV-positive women, 64.0% (51.6-73.7) were aware of their status, 67.7% (53.4-84.1) of these reported taking antiretroviral therapy, and 77.8% (64.4-90.8) of these had a suppressed HIV viral load (&lt;1000 copies/mL). Among all HIV-positive women, 49.5% had a viral load &lt; 1000 copies/mL. : Although most HIV-positive women aware of their status are accessing antiretroviral therapy, 36.0% of HIV-positive women are unaware of their status and 29.3% of all FSW have an unsuppressed HIV viral load. Investigation and investment into models of testing, treatment, and care are necessary to reach UNAIDS targets for HIV elimination.<br/

Binary and Millisecond Pulsars at the New Millennium

We review the properties and applications of binary and millisecond pulsars. Our knowledge of these exciting objects has greatly increased in recent years, mainly due to successful surveys which have brought the known pulsar population to over 1300. There are now 56 binary and millisecond pulsars in the Galactic disk and a further 47 in globular clusters. This review is concerned primarily with the results and spin-offs from these surveys which are of particular interest to the relativity community.Comment: 59 pages, 26 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Mathematical Evaluation of Community Level Impact of Combining Bed Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying upon Malaria Transmission in Areas where the main Vectors are Anopheles Arabiensis Mosquitoes.

Indoor residual insecticide spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) are commonly used together even though evidence that such combinations confer greater protection against malaria than either method alone is inconsistent. A deterministic model of mosquito life cycle processes was adapted to allow parameterization with results from experimental hut trials of various combinations of untreated nets or LLINs (Olyset, PermaNet 2.0, Icon Life nets) with IRS (pirimiphos methyl, lambda cyhalothrin, DDT), in a setting where vector populations are dominated by Anopheles arabiensis, so that community level impact upon malaria transmission at high coverage could be predicted. Intact untreated nets alone provide equivalent personal protection to all three LLINs. Relative to IRS plus untreated nets, community level protection is slightly higher when Olyset or PermaNet 2.0 nets are added onto IRS with pirimiphos methyl or lambda cyhalothrin but not DDT, and when Icon Life nets supplement any of the IRS insecticides. Adding IRS onto any net modestly enhances communal protection when pirimiphos methyl is sprayed, while spraying lambda cyhalothrin enhances protection for untreated nets but not LLINs. Addition of DDT reduces communal protection when added to LLINs. Where transmission is mediated primarily by An. arabiensis, adding IRS to high LLIN coverage provides only modest incremental benefit (e.g. when an organophosphate like pirimiphos methyl is used), but can be redundant (e.g. when a pyrethroid like lambda cyhalothin is used) or even regressive (e.g. when DDT is used for the IRS). Relative to IRS plus untreated nets, supplementing IRS with LLINs will only modestly improve community protection. Beyond the physical protection that intact nets provide, additional protection against transmission by An. arabiensis conferred by insecticides will be remarkably small, regardless of whether they are delivered as LLINs or IRS. The insecticidal action of LLINs and IRS probably already approaches their absolute limit of potential impact upon this persistent vector so personal protection of nets should be enhanced by improving the physical integrity and durability. Combining LLINs and non-pyrethroid IRS in residual transmission systems may nevertheless be justified as a means to manage insecticide resistance and prevent potential rebound of not only An. arabiensis, but also more potent, vulnerable and historically important species such as Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Longitudinal evaluation of aflatoxin exposure in two cohorts in south-western Uganda

Aflatoxins (AF) are a group of mycotoxins. AF exposure causes acute and chronic adverse health effects such as aflatoxicosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in human populations, especially in the developing world. In this study, AF exposure was evaluated using archived serum samples from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seronegative participants from two cohort studies in south-western Uganda. AFB1-lysine (AFB-Lys) adduct levels were determined via HPLC fluorescence in a total of 713 serum samples from the General Population Cohort (GPC), covering eight time periods between 1989 and 2010. Overall, 90% (642/713) of the samples were positive for AFB-Lys and the median level was 1.58 pg mg(-1) albumin (range = 0.40-168 pg mg(-1) albumin). AFB-Lys adduct levels were also measured in a total of 374 serum samples from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), across four time periods between 1999 and 2003. The averaged detection rate was 92.5% (346/374) and the median level was 1.18 pg mg(-1) albumin (range = 0.40-122.5 pg mg(-1) albumin). In the GPC study there were no statistically significant differences between demographic parameters, such as age, sex and level of education, and levels of serum AFB-Lys adduct. In the RCCS study, longitudinal analysis using generalised estimating equations revealed significant differences between the adduct levels and residential areas (p = 0.05) and occupations (p = 0.02). This study indicates that AF exposure in people in two populations in south-western Uganda is persistent and has not significantly changed over time. Data from one study, but not the other, indicated that agriculture workers and rural area residents had more AF exposure than those non-agricultural workers and non-rural area residents. These results suggest the need for further study of AF-induced human adverse health effects, especially the predominant diseases in the region