Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

A latent trait look at pretest-posttest validation of criterion-referenced test items

Since Cox and Vargas (1966) introduced their pretest-posttest validity index for criterion-referenced test items, a great number of additions and modifications have followed. All are based on the idea of gain scoring; that is, they are computed from the differences between proportions of pretest and posttest item responses. Although the method is simple and generally considered as the prototype of criterion-referenced item analysis, it has many and serious disadvantages. Some of these go back to the fact that it leads to indices based on a dual test administration- and population-dependent item p values. Others have to do with the global information about the discriminating power that these indices provide, the implicit weighting they suppose, and the meaningless maximization of posttest scores they lead to. Analyzing the pretest-posttest method from a latent trait point of view, it is proposed to replace indices like Cox and Vargas’ Dpp by an evaluation of the item information function for the mastery score. An empirical study was conducted to compare the differences in item selection between both methods

Elevated plasma levels of cardiac troponin-I predict left ventricular systolic dysfunction in patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1:A multicentre cohort follow-up study

Objective: High sensitivity plasma cardiac troponin-I (cTnI) is emerging as a strong predictor of cardiac events in a variety of settings. We have explored its utility in patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1). Methods: 117 patients with DM1 were recruited from routine outpatient clinics across three health boards. A single measurement of cTnI was made using the ARCHITECT STAT Troponin I assay. Demographic, ECG, echocardiographic and other clinical data were obtained from electronic medical records. Follow up was for a mean of 23 months. Results: Fifty five females and 62 males (mean age 47.7 years) were included. Complete data were available for ECG in 107, echocardiography in 53. Muscle Impairment Rating Scale score was recorded for all patients. A highly significant excess (p = 0.0007) of DM1 patients presented with cTnI levels greater than the 99th centile of the range usually observed in the general population (9 patients; 7.6%). Three patients with elevated troponin were found to have left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD), compared with four of those with normal range cTnI (33.3% versus 3.7%; p = 0.001). Sixty two patients had a cTnI level < 5ng/L, of whom only one had documented evidence of LVSD. Elevated cTnI was not predictive of severe conduction abnormalities on ECG, or presence of a cardiac device, nor did cTnI level correlate with muscle strength expressed by Muscle Impairment Rating Scale score. Conclusions: Plasma cTnI is highly elevated in some ambulatory patients with DM1 and shows promise as a tool to aid cardiac risk stratification, possibly by detecting myocardial involvement. Further studies with larger patient numbers are warranted to assess its utility in this setting

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Substrate Reduction Augments the Efficacy of Enzyme Therapy in a Mouse Model of Fabry Disease

Fabry disease is an X-linked glycosphingolipid storage disorder caused by a deficiency in the activity of the lysosomal hydrolase α-galactosidase A (α-gal). This deficiency results in accumulation of the glycosphingolipid globotriaosylceramide (GL-3) in lysosomes. Endothelial cell storage of GL-3 frequently leads to kidney dysfunction, cardiac and cerebrovascular disease. The current treatment for Fabry disease is through infusions of recombinant α-gal (enzyme-replacement therapy; ERT). Although ERT can markedly reduce the lysosomal burden of GL-3 in endothelial cells, variability is seen in the clearance from several other cell types. This suggests that alternative and adjuvant therapies may be desirable. Use of glucosylceramide synthase inhibitors to abate the biosynthesis of glycosphingolipids (substrate reduction therapy, SRT) has been shown to be effective at reducing substrate levels in the related glycosphingolipidosis, Gaucher disease. Here, we show that such an inhibitor (eliglustat tartrate, Genz-112638) was effective at lowering GL-3 accumulation in a mouse model of Fabry disease. Relative efficacy of SRT and ERT at reducing GL-3 levels in Fabry mouse tissues differed with SRT being more effective in the kidney, and ERT more efficacious in the heart and liver. Combination therapy with ERT and SRT provided the most complete clearance of GL-3 from all the tissues. Furthermore, treatment normalized urine volume and uromodulin levels and significantly delayed the loss of a nociceptive response. The differential efficacies of SRT and ERT in the different tissues indicate that the combination approach is both additive and complementary suggesting the possibility of an improved therapeutic paradigm in the management of Fabry disease

Frequency of CDH1 germline mutations in gastric carcinoma coming from high- and low-risk areas: metanalysis and systematic review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The frequency of E-cadherin germline mutations in countries with different incidence rates for gastric carcinoma has not been well established. The goal of this study was to assess the worldwide frequency of <it>CDH1 </it>germline mutations in gastric cancers coming from low- and high-risk areas.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>English articles using MEDLINE access (from 1998 to 2011). Search terms included <it>CDH1</it>, E-cadherin, germline mutation, gastric cancer, hereditary, familial and diffuse histotype.</p> <p>The study included all E-cadherin germline mutations identified in gastric cancer patients; somatic mutations and germline mutations reported in other tumors were excluded.</p> <p>The method of this study was scheduled in accordance with the "PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses". Countries were classified as low- or middle/high risk-areas for gastric carcinoma incidence. Statistical analysis was performed to correlate the <it>CDH1 </it>mutation frequency with gastric cancer incidence areas.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 122 E-cadherin germline mutations have been identified; the majority (87.5%) occurred in gastric cancers coming from low-risk areas. In high-risk areas, we identified 16 mutations in which missense mutations were predominant. (68.8%). We verified a significant association between the mutation frequency and the gastric cancer risk area (<it>p </it>< 0.001: overall identified mutations in low- vs. middle/high-risk areas).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>E-cadherin genetic screenings performed in low-risk areas for gastric cancer identified a higher frequency of <it>CDH1 </it>germline mutations. This data could open new approaches in the gastric cancer prevention test; before proposing a proband candidate for the <it>CDH1 </it>genetic screening, geographic variability, alongside the family history should be considered.</p

Role of 4-1BB Receptor in the Control Played by CD8+ T Cells on IFN-γ Production by Mycobacterium tuberculosis Antigen-Specific CD4+ T Cells

BACKGROUND: Antigen-specific IFN-gamma producing CD4(+) T cells are the main mediators of protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection both under natural conditions and following vaccination. However these cells are responsible for lung damage and poor vaccine efficacy when not tightly controlled. Discovering new tools to control nonprotective antigen-specific IFN-gamma production without affecting protective IFN-gamma is a challenge in tuberculosis research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Immunization with DNA encoding Ag85B, a candidate vaccine antigen of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, elicited in mice a low but protective CD4(+) T cell-mediated IFN-gamma response, while in mice primed with DNA and boosted with Ag85B protein a massive increase in IFN-gamma response was associated with loss of protection. Both protective and non-protective Ag85B-immunization generated antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells which suppressed IFN-gamma-secreting CD4(+) T cells. However, ex vivo ligation of 4-1BB, a member of TNF-receptor super-family, reduced the massive, non-protective IFN-gamma responses by CD4(+) T cells in protein-boosted mice without affecting the low protective IFN-gamma-secretion in mice immunized with DNA. This selective inhibition was due to the induction of 4-1BB exclusively on CD8(+) T cells of DNA-primed and protein-boosted mice following Ag85B protein stimulation. The 4-1BB-mediated IFN-gamma inhibition did not require soluble IL-10, TGF-beta, XCL-1 and MIP-1beta. In vivo Ag85B stimulation induced 4-1BB expression on CD8(+) T cells and in vivo 4-1BB ligation reduced the activation, IFN-gamma production and expansion of Ag85B-specific CD4(+) T cells of DNA-primed and protein-boosted mice. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Antigen-specific suppressor CD8(+) T cells are elicited through immunization with the mycobacterial antigen Ag85B. Ligation of 4-1BB receptor further enhanced their suppressive activity on IFN-gamma-secreting CD4(+) T cells. The selective expression of 4-1BB only on CD8(+) T cells in mice developing a massive, non-protective IFN-gamma response opens novel strategies for intervention in tuberculosis pathology and vaccination through T-cell co-stimulatory-based molecular targeting

Iminosugar-Based Inhibitors of Glucosylceramide Synthase Increase Brain Glycosphingolipids and Survival in a Mouse Model of Sandhoff Disease

The neuropathic glycosphingolipidoses are a subgroup of lysosomal storage disorders for which there are no effective therapies. A potential approach is substrate reduction therapy using inhibitors of glucosylceramide synthase (GCS) to decrease the synthesis of glucosylceramide and related glycosphingolipids that accumulate in the lysosomes. Genz-529468, a blood-brain barrier-permeant iminosugar-based GCS inhibitor, was used to evaluate this concept in a mouse model of Sandhoff disease, which accumulates the glycosphingolipid GM2 in the visceral organs and CNS. As expected, oral administration of the drug inhibited hepatic GM2 accumulation. Paradoxically, in the brain, treatment resulted in a slight increase in GM2 levels and a 20-fold increase in glucosylceramide levels. The increase in brain glucosylceramide levels might be due to concurrent inhibition of the non-lysosomal glucosylceramidase, Gba2. Similar results were observed with NB-DNJ, another iminosugar-based GCS inhibitor. Despite these unanticipated increases in glycosphingolipids in the CNS, treatment nevertheless delayed the loss of motor function and coordination and extended the lifespan of the Sandhoff mice. These results suggest that the CNS benefits observed in the Sandhoff mice might not necessarily be due to substrate reduction therapy but rather to off-target effects

Food Use and Health Effects of Soybean and Sunflower Oils

This review provides a scientific assessment of current knowledge of health effects of soybean oil (SBO) and sunflower oil (SFO). SBO and SFO both contain high levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) (60.8 and 69%, respectively), with a PUFA:saturated fat ratio of 4.0 for SBO and 6.4 for SFO. SFO contains 69% C18:2n-6 and less than 0.1% C18:3n-3, while SBO contains 54% C18:2n-6 and 7.2% C18:3n-3. Thus, SFO and SBO each provide adequate amounts of C18:2n-6, but of the two, SBO provides C18:3n-3 with a C18:2n-6:C18:3n-3 ratio of 7.1. Epidemiological evidence has suggested an inverse relationship between the consumption of diets high in vegetable fat and blood pressure, although clinical findings have been inconclusive. Recent dietary guidelines suggest the desirability of decreasing consumption of total and saturated fat and cholesterol, an objective that can be achieved by substituting such oils as SFO and SBO for animal fats. Such changes have consistently resulted in decreased total and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, which is thought to be favorable with respect to decreasing risk of cardiovascular disease. Also, decreases in high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol have raised some concern. Use of vegetable oils such as SFO and SBO increases C18:2n-6, decreases C20:4n-6, and slightly elevated C20:5n-3 and C22:6n-3 in platelets, changes that slightly inhibit platelet generation of thromboxane and ex vivo aggregation. Whether chronic use of these oils will effectively block thrombosis at sites of vascular injury, inhibit pathologic platelet vascular interactions associated with atherosclerosis, or reduce the incidence of acute vascular occlusion in the coronary or cerebral circulation is uncertain. Linoleic acid is needed for normal immune response, and essential fatty acid (EFA) deficiency impairs B and T cell-mediated responses. SBO and SFO can provide adequate linoleic acid for maintenance of the immune response. Excess linoleic acid has supported tumor growth in animals, an effect not verified by data from diverse human studies of risk, incidence, or progression of cancers of the breast and colon. Areas yet to be investigated include the differential effects of n-6- and n-3-containing oil on tumor development in humans and whether shorter-chain n-3 PUFA of plant origin such as found in SBO will modulate these actions of linoleic acid, as has been shown for the longer-chain n-3 PUFA of marine oil

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for depression in primary care: Design of a randomised trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Major depression is a common mental health problem in the general population, associated with a substantial impact on quality of life and societal costs. However, many depressed patients in primary care do not receive the care they need. Reason for this is that pharmacotherapy is only effective in severely depressed patients and psychological treatments in primary care are scarce and costly. A more feasible treatment in primary care might be computerised cognitive behavioural therapy. This can be a self-help computer program based on the principles of cognitive behavioural therapy. Although previous studies suggest that computerised cognitive behavioural therapy is effective, more research is necessary. Therefore, the objective of the current study is to evaluate the (cost-) effectiveness of online computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for depression in primary care.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In a randomised trial we will compare (a) computerised cognitive behavioural therapy with (b) treatment as usual by a GP, and (c) computerised cognitive behavioural therapy in combination with usual GP care. Three hundred mild to moderately depressed patients (aged 18–65) will be recruited in the general population by means of a large-scale Internet-based screening (<it>N </it>= 200,000). Patients will be randomly allocated to one of the three treatment groups. Primary outcome measure of the clinical evaluation is the severity of depression. Other outcomes include psychological distress, social functioning, and dysfunctional beliefs. The economic evaluation will be performed from a societal perspective, in which all costs will be related to clinical effectiveness and health-related quality of life. All outcome assessments will take place on the Internet at baseline, two, three, six, nine, and twelve months. Costs are measured on a monthly basis. A time horizon of one year will be used without long-term extrapolation of either costs or quality of life.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Although computerised cognitive behavioural therapy is a promising treatment for depression in primary care, more research is needed. The effectiveness of online computerised cognitive behavioural therapy without support remains to be evaluated as well as the effects of computerised cognitive behavioural therapy in combination with usual GP care. Economic evaluation is also needed. Methodological strengths and weaknesses are discussed.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The study has been registered at the Netherlands Trial Register, part of the Dutch Cochrane Centre (ISRCTN47481236).</p