Parallels, prescience and the past: analogical reasoning and contemporary international politics

Analogical reasoning has held a perpetual appeal to policymakers who have often drafted in historical metaphor as a mode of informing decision-making. However, this article contends that since the beginning of the ‘War on Terror’ we have arguably seen the rise of a more potent form of analogy, namely ones that are selected because they fulfil an ideological function. Analogical reasoning as a tool of rational decision-making has increasingly become replaced by analogical reasoning as a tool of trenchant ideologically-informed policy justification. This article addresses three key areas which map out the importance of analogical reasoning to an understanding of developments in contemporary international politics: the relationship between history and politics, in intellectual and policy terms; a critical assessment of the appeal that analogical reasoning holds for policymakers; and the development of a rationale for a more effective use of history in international public policymaking

Multicomponent analysis of T1 relaxation in bovine articular cartilage at low magnetic fields

European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme; Grant/Award number 668119 (project “IDentIFY”).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Larval Development of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Peri-Urban Brackish Water and Its Implications for Transmission of Arboviral Diseases

Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus Skuse mosquitoes transmit serious human arboviral diseases including yellow fever, dengue and chikungunya in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Females of the two species have adapted to undergo preimaginal development in natural or artificial collections of freshwater near human habitations and feed on human blood. While there is an effective vaccine against yellow fever, the control of dengue and chikungunya is mainly dependent on reducing freshwater preimaginal development habitats of the two vectors. We show here that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus lay eggs and their larvae survive to emerge as adults in brackish water (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish and saline respectively). Brackish water with salinity of 2 to 15 ppt in discarded plastic and glass containers, abandoned fishing boats and unused wells in coastal peri-urban environment were found to contain Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae. Relatively high incidence of dengue in Jaffna city, Sri Lanka was observed in the vicinity of brackish water habitats containing Ae. aegypti larvae. These observations raise the possibility that brackish water-adapted Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may play a hitherto unrecognized role in transmitting dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever in coastal urban areas. National and international health authorities therefore need to take the findings into consideration and extend their vector control efforts, which are presently focused on urban freshwater habitats, to include brackish water larval development habitats

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units) and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit). Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70%) registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes the need for further research to improve the technology available for the prevention of this disease.</p

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue is a major public health problem in many tropical regions of the world, including Brazil, where Aedes aegypti is the main vector. We present a household study that combines data on dengue fever seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density, in three neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during its most devastating dengue epidemic to date. This integrated entomological–serological survey showed evidence of silent transmission even during a severe epidemic. Also, past exposure to dengue virus was highly associated with age and living in areas of high movement of individuals and social/commercial activity. No association was observed between household infestation index and risk of dengue infection in these areas. Our findings are discussed in the light of current theories regarding transmission thresholds and relative role of mosquitoes and humans as vectors of dengue viruses

Target for improvement: a cluster randomised trial of public involvement in quality-indicator prioritisation (intervention development and study protocol)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Public priorities for improvement often differ from those of clinicians and managers. Public involvement has been proposed as a way to bridge the gap between professional and public clinical care priorities but has not been studied in the context of quality-indicator choice. Our objective is to assess the feasibility and impact of public involvement on quality-indicator choice and agreement with public priorities.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We will conduct a cluster randomised controlled trial comparing quality-indicator prioritisation with and without public involvement. In preparation for the trial, we developed a 'menu' of quality indicators, based on a systematic review of existing validated indicator sets. Participants (public representatives, clinicians, and managers) will be recruited from six participating sites. In intervention sites, public representatives will be involved through direct participation (public representatives, clinicians, and managers will deliberate together to agree on quality-indicator choice and use) and consultation (individual public recommendations for improvement will be collected and presented to decision makers). In control sites, only clinicians and managers will take part in the prioritisation process. Data on quality-indicator choice and intended use will be collected. Our primary outcome will compare quality-indicator choice and agreement with public priorities between intervention and control groups. A process evaluation based on direct observation, videorecording, and participants' assessment will be conducted to help explain the study's results. The marginal cost of public involvement will also be assessed.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We identified 801 quality indicators that met our inclusion criteria. An expert panel agreed on a final set of 37 items containing validated quality indicators relevant for chronic disease prevention and management in primary care. We pilot tested our public-involvement intervention with 27 participants (11 public representatives and 16 clinicians and managers) and our study instruments with an additional 21 participants, which demonstrated the feasibility of the intervention and generated important insights and adaptations to engage public representatives more effectively. To our knowledge, this study is the first trial of public involvement in quality-indicator prioritisation, and its results could foster more effective upstream engagement of patients and the public in clinical practice improvement.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=2496">NTR2496</a> (Netherlands National Trial Register, <url>http://www.trialregister.nl</url>).</p

Understanding the clinical spectrum of complicated Plasmodium vivax malaria: a systematic review on the contributions of the Brazilian literature

The resurgence of the malaria eradication agenda and the increasing number of severe manifestation reports has contributed to a renewed interested in the Plasmodium vivax infection. It is the most geographically widespread parasite causing human malaria, with around 2.85 billion people living under risk of infection. The Brazilian Amazon region reports more than 50% of the malaria cases in Latin America and since 1990 there is a marked predominance of this species, responsible for 85% of cases in 2009. However, only a few complicated cases of P. vivax have been reported from this region. A systematic review of the Brazilian indexed and non-indexed literature on complicated cases of vivax malaria was performed including published articles, masters' dissertations, doctoral theses and national congresses' abstracts. The following information was retrieved: patient characteristics (demographic, presence of co-morbidities and, whenever possible, associated genetic disorders); description of each major clinical manifestation. As a result, 27 articles, 28 abstracts from scientific events' annals and 13 theses/dissertations were found, only after 1987. Most of the reported information was described in small case series and case reports of patients from all the Amazonian states, and also in travellers from Brazilian non-endemic areas. The more relevant clinical complications were anaemia, thrombocytopaenia, jaundice and acute respiratory distress syndrome, present in all age groups, in addition to other more rare clinical pictures. Complications in pregnant women were also reported. Acute and chronic co-morbidities were frequent, however death was occasional. Clinical atypical cases of malaria are more frequent than published in the indexed literature, probably due to a publication bias. In the Brazilian Amazon (considered to be a low to moderate intensity area of transmission), clinical data are in accordance with the recent findings of severity described in diverse P. vivax endemic areas (especially anaemia in Southeast Asia), however in this region both children and adults are affected. Finally, gaps of knowledge and areas for future research are opportunely pointed out