Ten challenges for computer models in transitions research: Commentary on Holtz et al

The emergence of a dedicated modelling community within the transitions field is to be welcomed, and the authors of a recent paper in EIST (Holtz et al., 2015) make many valuable points. We build on their position paper in two ways. First, we reflect on some of the ways in which modelling in other areas of 'sustainability science' has sometimes fallen short of the strengths articulated. Second, we extend some of Holtz et al.'s discussion of the epistemological and ontological challenges for modelling transitions. We suggest ten challenges in response to the more optimistic claims made by Holtz et al., and we provide some additional suggestions for ways forward. In particular, we suggest that seeking closer integration of qualitative, socio-technical analysis with models may not always be the best strategy. Rather, pluralist 'bridging strategies' and dialogue between analytic approaches may be more productive

Decarbonisation and its discontents: a critical energy justice perspective on four low-carbon transitions

Low carbon transitions are often assumed as normative goods, because they supposedly reduce carbon emissions, yet without vigilance there is evidence that they can in fact create new injustices and vulnerabilities, while also failing to address pre-existing structural drivers of injustice in energy markets and the wider socio-economy. With this in mind, we examine four European low-carbon transitions from an unusual normative perspective: that of energy justice. Because a multitude of studies looks at the co-benefits renewable energy, low-carbon mobility, or climate change mitigation, we instead ask in this paper: what are the types of injustices associated with low-carbon transitions? Relatedly, in what ways do low-carbon transitions worsen social risks or vulnerabilities? Lastly, what policies might be deployed to make these transitions more just? We answer these questions by first elaborating an “energy justice” framework consisting of four distinct dimensions—distributive justice (costs and benefits), procedural justice (due process), cosmopolitan justice (global externalities), and recognition justice (vulnerable groups). We then examine four European low-carbon transitions—nuclear power in France, smart meters in Great Britain, electric vehicles in Norway, and solar energy in Germany—through this critical justice lens. In doing so, we draw from original data collected from 64 semi-structured interviews with expert partisans as well as five public focus groups and the monitoring of twelve internet forums. We document 120 distinct energy injustices across these four transitions, including 19 commonly recurring injustices. We aim to show how when low-carbon transitions unfold, deeper injustices related to equity, distribution, and fairness invariably arise

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an "equilibriumist" approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called "transformation processes". These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature

Elderly Care and Digital Services: Toward a Sustainable Sociotechnical Transition

The elderly care system’s sustainability is one of the largest societal challenges of our time. Digitalization and the implementation of technologies in elderly care are viewed as offering possible solutions to the social and economic challenges of sustainability. This study’s objective is to examine the development, implementation, and diffusion of technologies in elderly care from a sociotechnical perspective, leaning on the concepts of sociotechnical transitions. The focus mainly is on sustainable niche development, including interactions between niches and regimes in terms of sustainable sociotechnical transitions, how niches are developed in relation to sustainability, and in which conditions and circumstances promising niches can contribute to regime change in elderly care. Through a multiple-case study in different living environments of elderly residents in Finland, we identify factors that facilitate or hinder sustainable development and the implementation and diffusion of technologies in elderly care. The three case studies concern various types of development: introduction of tablet computers in senior housing, construction of a multisensory room in a care home, and the use of a care robot in care homes and in a rehabilitation hospital. Critical factors for sustainable niche development include involving users in the development processes, as well as simultaneous development of technologies and services. The multifaceted and effective use of technologies requires time and resources. Critical factors in niche-regime interaction are, for example, factors relating to attitudes, as well as technologies’ maturity. The need to consider a wider perspective, rather than a singular disruption, is key.Post-print / Final draf

The politics of accelerating low-carbon transitions: Towards a new research agenda

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Meeting the climate change targets in the Paris Agreement implies a substantial and rapid acceleration of low-carbon transitions. Combining insights from political science, policy analysis and socio-technical transition studies, this paper addresses the politics of deliberate acceleration by taking stock of emerging examples, mobilizing relevant theoretical approaches, and articulating a new research agenda. Going beyond routine appeals for more ‘political will’ it organises ideas and examples under three themes: 1) the role of coalitions in supporting and hindering acceleration; 2) the role of feedbacks, through which policies may shape actor preferences which, in turn, create stronger policies; and 3) the role of broader contexts (political economies, institutions, cultural norms, and technical systems) in creating more (or less) favourable conditions for deliberate acceleration. We discuss the importance of each theme, briefly review previous research and articulate new research questions. Our concluding section discusses the current and potential future relationship between transitions theory and political science.Cameron Roberts, Frank Geels, and Victoria Johnson are appreciative to the Research Councils United Kingdom (RCUK) Energy Program Grant EP/K011790/1 “Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand”, which has supported elements of the work reported here, and Andy Jordan’s contribution was funded by the COST Action IS1309 and by the UK in a Changing Europe Initiative (ES/R00028X/1)

Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection

Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies

Computational and mathematical approaches to societal transitions

After an introduction of the theoretical framework and concepts of transition studies, this article gives an overview of how structural change in social systems has been studied from various disciplinary perspectives. This overview first leads to the conclusion that computational and mathematical approaches and their practical form, modeling, up till now, have been almost absent in the research and theorizing of structural change or transitions in social systems. Second, this review of the social science literature suggests numerous theoretical constructs relevant for transition modeling. Relevant concepts include the conceptualization of the micro-to-macro link, the importance of explaining both stability and change, quantitative and qualitative definitions of structural change, the use of dichotomies, synchronic and diachronic reasoning in explaining structural change, definitions of basic patterns of social change, the conceptualization of resistance to change and intentional and normative aspects of social change. This article employs these theoretical concepts to describe and discuss the models presented in this special issue in order to develop an understanding of what exactly entails a computational or mathematical approach to societal transitions

Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

The Paris Climate Agreement defined an ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. This has triggered research on stringent emission reduction targets and corresponding mitigation pathways across energy economy and societal systems. Driven by methodological considerations, supply side and carbon dioxide removal options feature prominently in the emerging pathway literature, while much less attention has been given to the role of demand-side approaches. This special issue addresses this gap, and aims to broaden and strengthen the knowledge base in this key research and policy area. This editorial paper synthesizes the special issue’s contributions horizontally through three shared themes we identify: policy interventions, demand-side measures, and methodological approaches. The review of articles is supplemented by insights from other relevant literature. Overall, our paper underlines that stringent demand-side policy portfolios are required to drive the pace and direction of deep decarbonization pathways and keep the 1.5 °C target within reach. It confirms that insufficient attention has been paid to demand-side measures, which are found to be inextricably linked to supply-side decarbonization and able to complement supply-side measures. The paper also shows that there is an abundance of demand-side measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C, but it warns that not all of these options are “seen” or captured by current quantitative tools or progress indicators, and some remain insufficiently represented in the current policy discourse. Based on the set of papers presented in the special issue, we conclude that demand-side mitigation in line with the 1.5 °C goal is possible; however, it remains enormously challenging and dependent on both innovative technologies and policies, and behavioral change. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C requires, more than ever, a plurality of methods and integrated behavioral and technology approaches to better support policymaking and resulting policy interventions