Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand

This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.cotton exports, cotton mill use, Kalman filter, state space, unobserved components, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,

COLLECTIVE ACTION AND INFORMAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ROTATING AND SAVINGS CREDIT ASSOCIATIONS (ROSCAS) IN SENEGAL

This study analyzes how rotating savings and credit associations (ROSCAs) in Senegal were able to overcome the collective action dilemma, maintain institutional performance, and remain sustainable over time. This study models cooperation among members as well as the performance and sustainability of associations using data collected from field research conducted in Dakar, Senegal in 2001. The results show that factors such as homogeneity of individuals within an association, how long the association has existed, how defaults are covered, and rules such residency requirements, individual contributions, and rotation order are to various degree critical to the performance and sustainability of ROSCAs and to the fostering of cooperation among members of these associations.Financial Economics,

The Political and Economic Determinants of Trade Disputes under the WTO

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/25/08.democratization, system of government, trade disputes, World Trade Organization (WTO), economic strata, International Relations/Trade, P16, F13,

Valuation of cattle attributes in the Malian humid and sub-humid zones and implications for sustainable management of endemic ruminant livestock

The preservation for future use of endemic ruminant livestock (ERL) depends on how these breeds are perceived by smallholders in relation to their Sahelian counterparts with a larger frame. These indigenous livestock breeds have unique genetic traits that are important to smallholders’ livelihood. In Mali, the dwindling number of purebred Ndama cattle, a breed known for its tolerance to trypanosomosis, is cause for concern to many stakeholders. Markets are the institutions through which the appropriate incentives to rear endemic ruminant livestock are identified. A revealed preference approach was conceptualized and applied to data collected on observed transactions in randomly selected cattle markets in the Malian humid and sub-humid zones. The results indicate that the body condition, the agroecological origin, and the category of the transacted animal are the three most important attributes. The importance of Body Condition illustrated by the high premium rates paid for excellent body condition combined with the relatively low discount rates for the Ndama and Crossbred breed confirms that if all maintenance costs are accounted for, Ndama cattle with excellent body condition could be as profitable as Zebu. The findings have production, marketing, and animal genetic resource management implications. The results would enable Ndama producers and traders to make more informed production and marketing decisions because they would be better informed about how the attributes of cattle they put on the market are rewarded or penalized. More importantly, while crossbreeding may lead to higher prices, selection within the breed and fattening are the best avenues that could lead to better prospects for Ndama producers. They lead to better prices while protecting the breed for future use

PRICE RELATIONSHIPS IN THE U.S. FIBER MARKETS: ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR COTTON INDUSTRY

The paper examined the price relationship between cotton and polyester. The results provide strong evidence of long term price transmissions and granger causality between cotton and polyester price as well as the asymmetry transmissions for cotton on cotton, cotton on polyester, and polyester on polyester price. However, we did not find any evidence that there exists asymmetry transmission for polyester price on cotton price. Our results also did not support the contemporaneous effects hypothesis between polyester price and cotton price.Demand and Price Analysis,

The Impacts of U.S. Cotton Programs on the West and Central African Countries Cotton Export Earnings

This study uses a stochastic simulation approach based on a partial equilibrium structural econometric model of the world fiber market to examine the effects of a removal of U.S. cotton programs on the world market. The effects on world cotton prices and African export earnings were analyzed. The results suggest that on average an elimination of U.S. cotton programs would lead to a marginal increase in the world cotton prices thus resulting in minimal gain for cotton exporting countries in Africa.Stochastic simulation, partial equilibrium model, United States, Africa, cotton subsidies, export earnings, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Common Trends, Common Cycles, and Price Relationships in the International Fiber Market - Evidence from a Seemingly Unrelated Structural Time Series

This study shows that the stochastic process that governs price fluctuations in the international fiber market has transitory and permanent components. The results also indicate structural relationships between cotton price and wool price, wool price and oil price, rayon price and cotton price, and between polyester price and cotton price.Unobserved components, state-space, Kalman filter, fiber prices, cofeature, International Relations/Trade, C32, Q11,

Forecasting Agricultural Commodity Prices with Asymmetric-Error GARCH Models

The performance of a proposed asymmetric-error GARCH model is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error- and Student-t-GARCH models through three applications involving forecasts of U.S. soybean, sorghum, and wheat prices. The applications illustrate the relative advantages of the proposed model specification when the error term is asymmetrically distributed, and provide improved probabilistic forecasts for the prices of these commodities.GARCH, nonnormality, skewness, time-series forecasting, U.S. commodity prices, Demand and Price Analysis,

Dynamics of Price-Cost Margins in the U.S. Meat Industry

This study analyses the stochastic behavior of price-cost margins (PCMs) in the U.S. meat industry. It, first, develops and estimates a vertical relationship economic model to derive PCMs in the U.S. meat industry (Beef, Pork, and Poultry). Second it analyzes the behavior of PCMs by decomposing them into their seasonal, cyclical, and trend components using the state-space and the Kalman filtering methods. Price-cost margins in the U.S. meat industry are governed by two common trends and two common cycles. The study also found cyclical variability of PCMs is the highest with chicken, secular variability of PCMs is the highest with pork, while seasonal variability of PCMs is the highest with beef.Price-cost margins, market channel, meat industry, state-space Kalman filter, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,