MERITS-Driven Simulation: A Framework and Case Studies for Data Science Intervention in Scientific Problem-Solving.

Simulations play a crucial role in the modern scientific process. Yet despite (or due to) their ubiquity, the Data Science community shares neither a comprehensive definition for a high-quality study nor a consolidated guide to designing one. Inspired by the Predictability - Computability - Stability (PCS) framework for 'veridical' Data Science, we propose six MERITS that a Data Science simulation should satisfy. Modularity and Efficiency support the Computability of a study, encouraging clean and flexible implementation. Realism and Stability address the conceptualization of the research problem: How well does a study Predict reality, such that its conclusions generalize to new data/contexts? Finally, Intuitiveness and Transparency encourage good communication and trustworthiness of study design and results. Chapter 1 of this manuscript elaborates these quality criteria and presents a conceptual framework and guidelines for designing simulations that satisfy them. Chapters 2 and 3 describe two projects in which we leverage in-depth, MERITS-driven simulation studies to solve real-world problems in the respective fields of Metabolomics (analyzing mass spectra belonging to complex plant-exudate samples) and Political Science (scrutinizing the efficacy of redistricting rules for the curtailment of gerrymandering). With these contributions, we seek to (a) distill and enrich the best practices of simulation across disciplines into a cohesive recipe for trustworthy, veridical Data Science; and to (b) leverage simulation studies embodying those ideals to solve real-world problems in the applied sciences

Objective assessment of blood and lymphatic vessel invasion and association with macrophage infiltration in cutaneous melanoma

The aims of this study were to investigate the role of vascular invasion (blood and lymphatic), vessel density and the presence of tumour-associated macrophages as prognostic markers in 202 cutaneous melanoma patients. Sections of primary melanoma were stained with lymphatic-specific antibody D2-40 to assess lymphatic vessel invasion and density in intratumoural and peritumoural areas; an antibody against endothelial marker CD34 was used to determine blood vessel invasion and density, and an antibody against CD68 was used to determine macrophage counts. Immunohistochemically determined vascular invasion (combined blood and lymphatic) was compared with that determined using haematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining. The use of immunohistochemistry increased detection of vascular invasion from 8–30% of patients, and histological exam of H&E-stained tissue was associated with a false positive rate of 64%. Lymphatic vessel invasion occurred at a much higher frequency than blood vessel invasion (27 and 4% of patients, respectively). Although immunohistochemically detected vessel invasion was significantly associated with histological markers of adverse prognosis, such as increased Breslow thickness, ulceration and mitotic rate (all P<0.001), no associations with relapse-free or overall survival were observed. High macrophage counts were significantly associated with markers of aggressive disease, such as Breslow thickness, ulceration and mitotic rate (P<0.001, P<0.001, P=0.005, respectively), and lymphatic vessel invasion and high microvessel density (P=0.002 and P=0.003, respectively). These results suggest that vascular invasion is more accurately detected using immunohistochemistry and occurs predominantly via lymphatic vessels. The association of vessel characteristics with histological characteristics of the primary melanoma provides evidence for their biological importance in melanoma, but that they were not associated with clinical outcome attests to the value of existing histological prognostic biomarkers. We note that a high macrophage count may be associated with neovascularisation and primary tumour growth, and may also promote invasion through lymphatic vessels

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Cancer Prevention with Resistant Starch in Lynch Syndrome Patients in the CAPP2-Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial : Planned 10-Year Follow-up

The CAPP2 trial investigated the long-term effects of aspirin and resistant starch on cancer incidence in patients with Lynch syndrome (LS). Participants with LS were randomized double-blind to 30 g resistant starch (RS) daily or placebo for up to 4 years. We present long-term cancer outcomes based on the planned 10-year follow-up from recruitment, supplemented by National Cancer Registry data to 20 years in England, Wales, and Finland. Overall, 463 participants received RS and 455 participants received placebo. After up to 20 years follow-up, there was no difference in colorectal cancer incidence (n = 52 diagnosed with colorectal cancer among those randomized to RS against n = 53 on placebo) but fewer participants had non-colorectal LS cancers in those randomized to RS (n = 27) compared with placebo (n = 48); intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis [HR, 0.54; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.33-0.86; P = 0.010]. In ITT analysis, allowing for multiple primary cancer diagnoses among participants by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRR) confirmed the protective effect of RS against non-colorectal cancer LS cancers (IRR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.84; P= 0.0075). These effects are particularly pronounced for cancers of the upper GI tract; 5 diagnoses in those on RS versus 21 diagnoses on placebo. The reduction in non-colorectal cancer LS cancers was detectable in the first 10 years and continued in the next decade. For colorectal cancer, ITT analysis showed no effect of RS on colorectal cancer risk (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.62-1.34; P = 0.63). There was no interaction between aspirin and RS treatments. In conclusion, 30 g daily RS appears to have a substantial protective effect against non-colorectal cancer cancers for patients with LS. Prevention Relevance: Regular bowel screening and aspirin reduce colorectal cancer among patients with LS but extracolonic cancers are difficult to detect and manage. This study suggests that RS reduces morbidity associated with extracolonic cancers.Peer reviewe

Cancer prevention with aspirin in hereditary colorectal cancer (Lynch syndrome), 10-year follow-up and registry-based 20-year data in the CAPP2 study: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background Lynch syndrome is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer and with a broader spectrum of cancers, especially endometrial cancer. In 2011, our group reported long-term cancer outcomes (mean follow-up 55.7 months [SD 31.4]) for participants with Lynch syndrome enrolled into a randomised trial of daily aspirin versus placebo. This report completes the planned 10-year follow-up to allow a longer-term assessment of the effect of taking regular aspirin in this high-risk population. Methods In the double-blind, randomised CAPP2 trial, 861 patients from 43 international centres worldwide (707 [82%] from Europe, 112 [13%] from Australasia, 38 [4%] from Africa, and four [ Findings Between January, 1999, and March, 2005, 937 eligible patients with Lynch syndrome, mean age 45 years, commenced treatment, of whom 861 agreed to be randomly assigned to the aspirin group or placebo; 427 (50%) participants received aspirin and 434 (50%) placebo. Participants were followed for a mean of 10 years approximating 8500 person-years. 40 (9%) of 427 participants who received aspirin developed colorectal cancer compared with 58 (13%) of 434 who received placebo. Intention-to-treat Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed a significantly reduced hazard ratio (HR) of 0.65 (95% CI 0.43-0.97; p= 0. 035) for aspirin versus placebo. Negative binomial regression to account for multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio of 0.58 (0.39-0.87; p=0.0085). Per-protocol analyses restricted to 509 who achieved 2 years' intervention gave an HR of 0 .56 (0 .34-0 .91; p=0 .019) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.50 (0.31-0.82; p=0.0057). Non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were reported in 36 participants who received aspirin and 36 participants who received placebo. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses showed no effect. For all Lynch syndrome cancers combined, the intention-to-treat analysis did not reach significance but per-protocol analysis showed significantly reduced overall risk for the aspirin group (HR=0.63, 0 .43-0 .92; p=0.018). Adverse events during the intervention phase between aspirin and placebo groups were similar, and no significant difference in compliance between intervention groups was observed for participants with complete intervention phase data; details reported previously. Interpretation The case for prevention of colorectal cancer with aspirin in Lynch syndrome is supported by our results. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The role of microRNA-binding site polymorphisms in DNA repair genes as risk factors for bladder cancer and breast cancer and their impact on radiotherapy outcomes

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are involved in post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression through binding to messenger RNAs (mRNA) thereby promoting mRNA degradation or altered translation. A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) located within a miRNA-binding site could thus alter mRNA translation and influence cancer risk and treatment response. The common SNPs located within the 3′-untranslated regions of 20 DNA repair genes were analysed for putative miRNA-binding sites using bioinformatics algorithms, calculating the difference in Gibbs free binding energy (ΔΔG) for each wild-type versus variant allele. Seven SNPs were selected to be genotyped in germ line DNAs both from a bladder cancer case–control series (752 cases and 704 controls) and 202 muscle-invasive bladder cancer radiotherapy cases. The PARP-1 SNP rs8679 was also genotyped in a breast cancer case–control series (257 cases and 512 controls). Without adjustment for multiple testing, multivariate analysis demonstrated an association with increased bladder cancer risk with PARP1 rs8679 (Ptrend = 0.05) while variant homozygotes of PARP1 rs8679 were also noted to have an increased breast cancer risk (P = 0.03). In the radiotherapy cases, carriers of the RAD51 rs7180135 minor allele had improved cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.31–0.87, P = 0.01). This is the first report of associations between DNA repair gene miRNA-binding site SNPs with bladder and breast cancer risk and radiotherapy outcomes. If validated, these findings may give further insight into the biology of bladder carcinogenesis, allow testing of the RAD51 SNP as a potential predictive biomarker and also reveal potential targets for new cancer treatments

A sequence variant at 4p16.3 confers susceptibility to urinary bladder cancer

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldPreviously, we reported germline DNA variants associated with risk of urinary bladder cancer (UBC) in Dutch and Icelandic subjects. Here we expanded the Icelandic sample set and tested the top 20 markers from the combined analysis in several European case-control sample sets, with a total of 4,739 cases and 45,549 controls. The T allele of rs798766 on 4p16.3 was found to associate with UBC (odds ratio = 1.24, P = 9.9 x 10(-12)). rs798766 is located in an intron of TACC3, 70 kb from FGFR3, which often harbors activating somatic mutations in low-grade, noninvasive UBC. Notably, rs798766[T] shows stronger association with low-grade and low-stage UBC than with more aggressive forms of the disease and is associated with higher risk of recurrence in low-grade stage Ta tumors. The frequency of rs798766[T] is higher in Ta tumors that carry an activating mutation in FGFR3 than in Ta tumors with wild-type FGFR3. Our results show a link between germline variants, somatic mutations of FGFR3 and risk of UBC.info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/21807

Having a word with yourself:neural correlates of self-criticism and self-reassurance

Self-criticism is strongly correlated with a range of psychopathologies, such as depression, eating disorders and anxiety. In contrast, self-reassurance is inversely associated with such psychopathologies. Despite the importance of self-judgements and evaluations, little is known about the neurophysiology of these internal processes. The current study therefore used a novel fMRI task to investigate the neuronal correlates of self-criticism and self-reassurance. Participants were presented statements describing two types of scenario, with the instruction to either imagine being self-critical or self-reassuring in that situation. One scenario type focused on a personal setback, mistake or failure, which would elicit negative emotions, whilst the second was of a matched neutral event. Self-criticism was associated with activity in lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) regions and dorsal anterior cingulate (dAC), therefore linking self-critical thinking to error processing and resolution, and also behavioural inhibition. Self-reassurance was associated with left temporal pole and insula activation, suggesting that efforts to be self-reassuring engage similar regions to expressing compassion and empathy towards others. Additionally, we found a dorsal/ventral PFC divide between an individual's tendency to be self-critical or self-reassuring. Using multiple regression analyses, dorsolateral PFC activity was positively correlated with high levels of self-criticism (assessed via self-report measure), suggesting greater error processing and behavioural inhibition in such individuals. Ventrolateral PFC activity was positively correlated with high self-reassurance. Our findings may have implications for the neural basis of a range of mood disorders that are characterised by a preoccupation with personal mistakes and failures, and a self-critical response to such events

Molecular subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy in colorectal cancer is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone

Background Patient selection for addition of anti-EGFR therapy to chemotherapy for patients with RAS and BRAF wildtype metastatic colorectal cancer can still be optimised. Here we investigate the effect of anti-EGFR therapy on survival in different consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) and stratified by primary tumour location. Methods Retrospective analyses, using the immunohistochemistry-based CMS classifier, were performed in the COIN (first-line oxaliplatin backbone with or without cetuximab) and PICCOLO trial (second-line irinotecan with or without panitumumab). Tumour tissue was available for 323 patients (20%) and 349 (41%), respectively. Results When using an irinotecan backbone, anti-EGFR therapy is effective in both CMS2/3 and CMS4 in left-sided primary tumours (progression-free survival (PFS): HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26–0.75, P = 0.003 and HR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04–0.36, P < 0.001, respectively) and in CMS4 right-sided tumours (PFS HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04–0.71, P = 0.02). Efficacy using an oxaliplatin backbone was restricted to left-sided CMS2/3 tumours (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36–0.96, P = 0.034). Conclusions The subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone. This may provide the possibility of subtype-specific treatment strategies for a more optimal use of anti-EGFR therapy