Situational Prevention of Organized Timber Theft and Related Corruption

"This is an Accepted Manuscript of a book chapter published by Routledge/Willan Publishing in A New Response to Youth Crime in 2011, available online: http://www.routledge.com/9781843927549.” Copyright © 2011 – Willan Publishing (Routledge)Organized theft of timber is a large and significant worldwide enterprise. Corruption in every step of the timber harvesting and selling process involves substantial criminal cooperation, with bribes paid at every stage of the way. The authors review several situational crime prevention measures that could be brought into play. The timber theft example has general significance, offering ideas for preventing criminal enterprise from expanding and for containing public corruption of other processes

The relationship between reductions in knee loading and immediate pain response whilst wearing lateral wedged insoles in knee osteoarthritis

Studies of lateral wedge insoles (LWIs) in medial knee osteoarthritis (OA) have shown reductions in the average external knee adduction moment (EKAM) but no lessening of knee pain. Some treated patients actually experience increases in the EKAM which could explain the overall absence of pain response. We examined whether, in patients with painful medial OA, reductions in the EKAM were associated with lessening of knee pain. Each patient underwent gait analysis whilst walking in a control shoe and two LWI's. We evaluated the relationship between change in EKAM and change in knee pain using Spearman Rank Correlation coefficients and tested whether dichotomizing patients into biomechanical responders (decreased EKAM) and non-responders (increased EKAM) would identify those with reductions in knee pain. In 70 patients studied, the EKAM was reduced in both LWIs versus control shoe (−5.21% and −6.29% for typical and supported wedges, respectively). The change in EKAM using LWIs was not significantly associated with the direction of knee pain change. Further, 54% were biomechanical responders, but these persons did not have more knee pain reduction than non-responders. Whilst LWIs reduce EKAM, there is no clearcut relationship between change in medial load when wearing LWIs and corresponding change in knee pain

La théorie des opportunités et l’erreur de généralisation

Crime relationships are often inconsistent at different levels of aggregation for good theoretical reasons. That is why we should avoid committing the fallacy of composition, namely, drawing inferences between individuals and aggregates or from one level of aggregation to another. The routine activity approach becomes part of the solution

How time shapes crime: the temporal impacts of football matches on crime [WP]

In this paper we analyze the temporal profile of crime in the urban context of Barcelona (Spain) for the period 2007-2011 using a unique micro data set with police reported crime. Additionally, we assess the temporal effect that a leisure activity clearly bounded in time, namely the matches played by Football Club Barcelona (FCB), exert on criminal activities. We obtain a detailed time profile for the crime recorded in the city of Barcelona and the displacement effect attributable to the football matches. The latter was found to be notable in the case of thefts, criminal damage, robberies and gender violence. Instances of gender violence were more prevalent after a FCB defeat

The crime drop and the security hypothesis

Major crime drops were experienced in the United States and most other industrialised countries for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. Yet there is little agreement over explanation or lessons for policy. Here it is proposed that change in the quantity and quality of security was a key driver of the crime drop. From evidence relating to vehicle theft in two countries it is concluded that electronic immobilisers and central locking were particularly effective. It is suggested that reduced car theft may have induced drops in other crime including violence. From this platform a broader security hypothesis, linked to routine activity and opportunity theory, is outlined

On ‘Organized Crime’ in the illicit antiquities trade: moving beyond the definitional debate

The extent to which ‘organized crime’ is involved in illicit antiquities trafficking is unknown and frequently debated. This paper explores the significance and scale of the illicit antiquities trade as a unique transnational criminal phenomenon that is often said to be perpetrated by and exhibit traits of so-called ‘organized crime.’ The definitional debate behind the term ‘organized crime’ is considered as a potential problem impeding our understanding of its existence or extent in illicit antiquities trafficking, and a basic progression-based model is then suggested as a new tool to move beyond the definitional debate for future research that may help to elucidate the actors, processes and criminal dynamics taking place within the illicit antiquities trade from source to market. The paper concludes that researchers should focus not on the question of whether organized criminals- particularly in a traditionally conceived, mafia-type stereotypical sense- are involved in the illicit antiquities trade, but instead on the structure and progression of antiquities trafficking itself that embody both organized and criminal dynamics

Area and individual differences in personal crime victimization incidence: The role of individual, lifestyle/routine activities and contextual predictors

This article examines how personal crime differences between areas and between individuals are predicted by area and population heterogeneity and their synergies. It draws on lifestyle/routine activities and social disorganization theories to model the number of personal victimization incidents over individuals including routine activities and area characteristics, respectively, as well as their (cross-cluster) interactions. The methodology employs multilevel or hierarchical negative binomial regression with extra binomial variation using data from the British Crime Survey and the UK Census. Personal crime rates differ substantially across areas, reflecting to a large degree the clustering of individuals with measured vulnerability factors in the same areas. Most factors suggested by theory and previous research are conducive to frequent personal victimization except the following new results. Pensioners living alone in densely populated areas face disproportionally high numbers of personal crimes. Frequent club and pub visits are associated with more personal crimes only for males and adults living with young children, respectively. Ethnic minority individuals experience fewer personal crimes than whites. The findings suggest integrating social disorganization and lifestyle theories and prioritizing resources to the most vulnerable, rather than all, residents of poor and densely populated areas to prevent personal crimes

Prevention of Incident Knee Osteoarthritis by Moderate Weight Loss in Overweight and Obese Females

__Objective:__ This study evaluated the effect of moderate weight loss on the incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) in middle-aged overweight and obese women, without clinical and radiologic knee OA at baseline. __Methods:__ A total of 353 women (87%) with followup data available were selected from the Prevention of Knee Osteoarthritis in Overweight Females study, which evaluated the preventive effect of a diet and exercise intervention and of oral glucosamine sulfate on the incidence of knee OA. This was an exploratory proof-of-concept analysis, which compared the incidence of knee OA between women who reached the clinically relevant weight loss target of 5 kg or 5% of body weight after 30 months and those who did not reach this target. __Results:__ The weight loss group showed a significantly lower incidence of knee OA according to the primary outcome measure, which was composed of the American College of Rheumatology criteria (clinical and radiographic), Kellgren/Lawrence grade ≥2, and joint space narrowing ≥1.0 mm (15% versus 20%; odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3–0.9). Moreover, the weight loss also positively affected several health measures, such as blood glucose level, body fat percentage, and blood pressure. __Conclusion:__ A reduction of ≥5 kg or 5% of body weight over a 30-month period reduces the risk for the onset of radiographic knee OA in middle-aged overweight and obese women. Because of the slow progression of the disease, a longer followup period will be necessary before the number of prevented cases of knee OA by moderate weight loss becomes clinically more relevant