Extending backcalculation to analyse BSE data.

We review the origins of backcalculation (or back projection) methods developed for the analysis of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) incidence data. These techniques have been used extensively for >15 years to deconvolute clinical case incidence, given knowledge of the incubation period distribution, to obtain estimates of past HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection incidence and short-term predictions of future AIDS incidence. Adaptations required for the analysis of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) incidence included: stratification of BSE incidence by age as well as birth cohort; allowance for incomplete survival between infection and the onset of clinical signs of disease; and decomposition of the age- and time-related infection incidence into a time-dependent feed risk component and an age-dependent exposure/susceptibility function. The most recent methodological developments focus on the incorporation of data from clinically unaffected cattle screened using recently developed tests for preclinical BSE infection. Backcalculation-based predictions of future BSE incidence obtained since 1996 are examined. Finally, future directions of epidemiological analysis of BSE epidemics are discussed taking into account ongoing developments in the science of BSE and possible changes in BSE-related policies

Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Human exercise-induced circulating progenitor cell mobilization is nitric oxide-dependent and is blunted in South Asian men

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website. Copyright @ 2010 American Heart Foundation.Objective— Circulating progenitor cells (CPC) have emerged as potential mediators of vascular repair. In experimental models, CPC mobilization is critically dependent on nitric oxide (NO). South Asian ethnicity is associated with reduced CPC. We assessed CPC mobilization in response to exercise in Asian men and examined the role of NO in CPC mobilization per se. Methods and Results— In 15 healthy, white European men and 15 matched South Asian men, CPC mobilization was assessed during moderate-intensity exercise. Brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilatation was used to assess NO bioavailability. To determine the role of NO in CPC mobilization, identical exercise studies were performed during intravenous separate infusions of saline, the NO synthase inhibitor l-NMMA, and norepinephrine.  Flow-mediated vasodilatation (5.8%±0.4% vs 7.9%±0.5%; P=0.002) and CPC mobilization (CD34+/KDR+ 53.2% vs 85.4%; P=0.001; CD133+/CD34+/KDR+ 48.4% vs 73.9%; P=0.05; and CD34+/CD45− 49.3% vs 78.4; P=0.006) was blunted in the South Asian group. CPC mobilization correlated with flow-mediated vasodilatation and l-NMMA significantly reduced exercise-induced CPC mobilization (CD34+/KDR+ −3.3% vs 68.4%; CD133+/CD34+/KDR+ 0.7% vs 71.4%; and CD34+/CD45− −30.5% vs 77.8%; all P<0.001). Conclusion— In humans, NO is critical for CPC mobilization in response to exercise. Reduced NO bioavailability may contribute to imbalance between vascular damage and repair mechanisms in South Asian men.British Heart Foundatio

Selective inhibition of T suppressor-cell function by a monosaccharide

Interactions between regulatory T lymphocytes and other cells are assumed to occur at the level of the cell surface. T cells which suppress the generation of specifically effector cells have been described as having antigenic, idiotypic, allotypic and I-region specificity1−4. Other T suppressor cells generated by in vitro cultivation with or without mitogenic stimulation5,6 have suppressive activity for T and B cells but no specificity can be assigned to them. These T suppressor cells (Ts) inhibit various lymphoid functions—this either reflects their polyclonal origin or indicates that the structures recognized by the Ts receptors must be common for many cell types. Carbohydrates on cell membrane-inserted glycoproteins or glycolipids might function as specific ligands for recognition by cellular receptors or soluble factors. Almost all cell-surface proteins of mammalian cells are glycosylated. There is evidence for lectin-like carbohydrate binding proteins not only in plants7 but also in toxins8, viruses9, prokaryotic cells10 and even mammalian cells, including T cells11. A functional role for these lectin-like proteins has been described for slime moulds and suggested for the selective association of embryonic cells12,13. We report here that addition of a monosaccharide can counteract the effect of T suppressor cells during the generation of alloreactive cytotoxic T cells (CTLs) in vitro

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Probabilistic Clustering of Time-Evolving Distance Data

We present a novel probabilistic clustering model for objects that are represented via pairwise distances and observed at different time points. The proposed method utilizes the information given by adjacent time points to find the underlying cluster structure and obtain a smooth cluster evolution. This approach allows the number of objects and clusters to differ at every time point, and no identification on the identities of the objects is needed. Further, the model does not require the number of clusters being specified in advance -- they are instead determined automatically using a Dirichlet process prior. We validate our model on synthetic data showing that the proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art clustering methods. Finally, we use our dynamic clustering model to analyze and illustrate the evolution of brain cancer patients over time

Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling.

Accepted versio

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

The developmental effects of media-ideal internalization and self-objectification processes on adolescents’ negative body-feelings, dietary restraint, and binge eating

Despite accumulated experimental evidence of the negative effects of exposure to media-idealized images, the degree to which body image, and eating related disturbances are caused by media portrayals of gendered beauty ideals remains controversial. On the basis of the most up-to-date meta-analysis of experimental studies indicating that media-idealized images have the most harmful and substantial impact on vulnerable individuals regardless of gender (i.e., “internalizers” and “self-objectifiers”), the current longitudinal study examined the direct and mediated links posited in objectification theory among media-ideal internalization, self-objectification, shame and anxiety surrounding the body and appearance, dietary restraint, and binge eating. Data collected from 685 adolescents aged between 14 and 15 at baseline (47 % males), who were interviewed and completed standardized measures annually over a 3-year period, were analyzed using a structural equation modeling approach. Results indicated that media-ideal internalization predicted later thinking and scrutinizing of one’s body from an external observer’s standpoint (or self-objectification), which then predicted later negative emotional experiences related to one’s body and appearance. In turn, these negative emotional experiences predicted subsequent dietary restraint and binge eating, and each of these core features of eating disorders influenced each other. Differences in the strength of these associations across gender were not observed, and all indirect effects were significant. The study provides valuable information about how the cultural values embodied by gendered beauty ideals negatively influence adolescents’ feelings, thoughts and behaviors regarding their own body, and on the complex processes involved in disordered eating. Practical implications are discussed