Panel Data Models with Nonadditive Unobserved Heterogeneity: Estimation and Inference

This paper considers fixed effects estimation and inference in linear and nonlinear panel data models with random coefficients and endogenous regressors. The quantities of interest -- means, variances, and other moments of the random coefficients -- are estimated by cross sectional sample moments of GMM estimators applied separately to the time series of each individual. To deal with the incidental parameter problem introduced by the noise of the within-individual estimators in short panels, we develop bias corrections. These corrections are based on higher-order asymptotic expansions of the GMM estimators and produce improved point and interval estimates in moderately long panels. Under asymptotic sequences where the cross sectional and time series dimensions of the panel pass to infinity at the same rate, the uncorrected estimator has an asymptotic bias of the same order as the asymptotic variance. The bias corrections remove the bias without increasing variance. An empirical example on cigarette demand based on Becker, Grossman and Murphy (1994) shows significant heterogeneity in the price effect across U.S. states.Comment: 51 pages, 4 tables, 1 figure, it includes supplementary appendi

Inference for Extremal Conditional Quantile Models, with an Application to Market and Birthweight Risks

Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile regression applied to the tails, is of interest in many economic and financial applications, such as conditional value-at-risk, production efficiency, and adjustment bands in (S,s) models. In this paper we provide feasible inference tools for extremal conditional quantile models that rely upon extreme value approximations to the distribution of self-normalized quantile regression statistics. The methods are simple to implement and can be of independent interest even in the non-regression case. We illustrate the results with two empirical examples analyzing extreme fluctuations of a stock return and extremely low percentiles of live infants' birthweights in the range between 250 and 1500 grams.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figure

Inference on Counterfactual Distributions

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression methods. The counterfactual scenarios that we consider consist of ceteris paribus changes in either the distribution of covariates related to the outcome of interest or the conditional distribution of the outcome given covariates. For either of these scenarios we derive joint functional central limit theorems and bootstrap validity results for regression-based estimators of the status quo and counterfactual outcome distributions. These results allow us to construct simultaneous confidence sets for function-valued effects of the counterfactual changes, including the effects on the entire distribution and quantile functions of the outcome as well as on related functionals. These confidence sets can be used to test functional hypotheses such as no-effect, positive effect, or stochastic dominance. Our theory applies to general counterfactual changes and covers the main regression methods including classical, quantile, duration, and distribution regressions. We illustrate the results with an empirical application to wage decompositions using data for the United States. As a part of developing the main results, we introduce distribution regression as a comprehensive and flexible tool for modeling and estimating the \textit{entire} conditional distribution. We show that distribution regression encompasses the Cox duration regression and represents a useful alternative to quantile regression. We establish functional central limit theorems and bootstrap validity results for the empirical distribution regression process and various related functionals.Comment: 55 pages, 1 table, 3 figures, supplementary appendix with additional results available from the authors' web site

Network and panel quantile effects via distribution regression

This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous con fidence bands for quantile functions and quantile effects in nonlinear network and panel models with unobserved two-way effects, strictly exogenous covariates, and possibly discrete outcome variables. The method is based upon projection of simultaneous confi dence bands for distribution functions constructed from fixed effects distribution regression estimators. These fi xed effects estimators are bias corrected to deal with the incidental parameter problem. Under asymptotic sequences where both dimensions of the data set grow at the same rate, the confi dence bands for the quantile functions and effects have correct joint coverage in large samples. An empirical application to gravity models of trade illustrates the applicability of the methods to network data.https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.08154First author draf

Quantile and Probability Curves Without Crossing

This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also known as the quantile crossing problem. The method consists in sorting or monotone rearranging the original estimated non-monotone curve into a monotone rearranged curve. We show that the rearranged curve is closer to the true quantile curve in finite samples than the original curve, establish a functional delta method for rearrangement-related operators, and derive functional limit theory for the entire rearranged curve and its functionals. We also establish validity of the bootstrap for estimating the limit law of the the entire rearranged curve and its functionals. Our limit results are generic in that they apply to every estimator of a monotone econometric function, provided that the estimator satisfies a functional central limit theorem and the function satisfies some smoothness conditions. Consequently, our results apply to estimation of other econometric functions with monotonicity restrictions, such as demand, production, distribution, and structural distribution functions. We illustrate the results with an application to estimation of structural quantile functions using data on Vietnam veteran status and earnings.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figure

Improving Point and Interval Estimates of Monotone Functions by Rearrangement

Suppose that a target function is monotonic, namely, weakly increasing, and an available original estimate of this target function is not weakly increasing. Rearrangements, univariate and multivariate, transform the original estimate to a monotonic estimate that always lies closer in common metrics to the target function. Furthermore, suppose an original simultaneous confidence interval, which covers the target function with probability at least $1-\alpha$, is defined by an upper and lower end-point functions that are not weakly increasing. Then the rearranged confidence interval, defined by the rearranged upper and lower end-point functions, is shorter in length in common norms than the original interval and also covers the target function with probability at least $1-\alpha$. We demonstrate the utility of the improved point and interval estimates with an age-height growth chart example.Comment: 24 pages, 4 figures, 3 table

In-season calcium-spray formulations improve calcium balance and fruit quality traits of peach.

Experiments to evaluate the effect of in-season calcium (Ca) sprays on late-season peach (Prunus persica L. Batsch cv. Calrico) were carried out for a 2-year period. Calcium formulations (0.5% and 1.0% in 2008 and only 0.5% tested in 2009) supplied either as CaCl2 or Ca propionate in combination with two or three adjuvants (0.05% of the nonionic surfactants Tween 20 and Break Thru, and 0.5% carboxymethylcellulose, CMC) were sprayed four to five times over the growing season. Peach mesocarp and endocarp Ca concentrations were determined on a 15-day basis from the beginning of May until the end of June. Further tissue analyses were performed at harvest. A decreasing trend in fruit Ca concentrations over the growing season was always observed regardless of the Ca treatments. Both in 2008 and 2009, significant tissue Ca increments associated with the application of Ca-containing sprays in combination with adjuvants were only observed in June, which may be coincident with the period of pit hardening. In 2008, both at harvest and after cold storage, the total soluble-solids concentration (° Brix) of fruits supplied with Ca propionate (0.5% and 1.0% Ca) was always lower as compared to the rest of treatments. The application of multiple Ca-containing sprays increased firmness at harvest and after cold storage, especially when CaCl2 was the active ingredient used. Supplying the adjuvants Tween 20 and CMC increased fruit acidity both at harvest and after cold storage. Evaluation of the development of physiological disorders after cold storage (2 weeks at 0°C) indicated a lower susceptibility of Ca-treated fruits to internal browning. Fruits treated with multiple CaCl2-, CMC-, and Break Thru®-containing sprays during the growing season were significantly less prone to the development of chilling injuries as compared to untreated peaches